IP Traffic Statistics - A Markovian Approach

Data originating from non-voice sources is expected to play an increasingly important role in the next generation mobile communication services. To plan these networks, a detailed understanding of their traffic load is essential. Recent experimental studies have shown that network traffic originating from data applications can be self-similar, leading to a different queueing behavior than predicted by conventional traffic models. Heavy tailed probability distributions are appropriate for capturing this property, but including those random processes in a performance analysis makes it difficult and often impossible to find numerical results. In this thesis three related topics are addressed: It is shown that Markovian models with a large state space can be used to describe traffic which is self-similar over a large time scale, a Maximum Likelihood approach to fit parallel Erlang-k distributions directly to time series is developed, and the performance of a channel assignment procedure in a wireless communication network is evaluated using the above mentioned techniques to set up a Markovian model. Outcomes of the performance analysis are blocking probabilities and latency due to restrictions of the channel assignment procedure as well as estimations of the overall bandwidth that the system is required to offer in order to support a given number of users

STOCHASTIC MODELING AND TIME-TO-EVENT ANALYSIS OF VOIP TRAFFIC

Voice over IP (VoIP) systems are gaining increased popularity due to the cost effectiveness, ease of management, and enhanced features and capabilities. Both enterprises and carriers are deploying VoIP systems to replace their TDM-based legacy voice networks. However, the lack of engineering models for VoIP systems has been realized by many researchers, especially for large-scale networks. The purpose of traffic engineering is to minimize call blocking probability and maximize resource utilization. The current traffic engineering models are inherited from the legacy PSTN world, and these models fall short from capturing the characteristics of new traffic patterns. The objective of this research is to develop a traffic engineering model for modern VoIP networks. We studied the traffic on a large-scale VoIP network and collected several billions of call information. Our analysis shows that the traditional traffic engineering approach based on the Poisson call arrival process and exponential holding time fails to capture the modern telecommunication systems accurately. We developed a new framework for modeling call arrivals as a non-homogeneous Poisson process, and we further enhanced the model by providing a Gaussian approximation for the cases of heavy traffic condition on large-scale networks. In the second phase of the research, we followed a new time-to-event survival analysis approach to model call holding time as a generalized gamma distribution and we introduced a Call Cease Rate function to model the call durations. The modeling and statistical work of the Call Arrival model and the Call Holding Time model is constructed, verified and validated using hundreds of millions of real call information collected from an operational VoIP carrier network. The traffic data is a mixture of residential, business, and wireless traffic. Therefore, our proposed models can be applied to any modern telecommunication system. We also conducted sensitivity analysis of model parameters and performed statistical tests on the robustness of the models’ assumptions. We implemented the models in a new simulation-based traffic engineering system called VoIP Traffic Engineering Simulator (VSIM). Advanced statistical and stochastic techniques were used in building VSIM system. The core of VSIM is a simulation system that consists of two different simulation engines: the NHPP parametric simulation engine and the non-parametric simulation engine. In addition, VSIM provides several subsystems for traffic data collection, processing, statistical modeling, model parameter estimation, graph generation, and traffic prediction. VSIM is capable of extracting traffic data from a live VoIP network, processing and storing the extracted information, and then feeding it into one of the simulation engines which in turn provides resource optimization and quality of service reports

Flow Level QoE of Video Streaming in Wireless Networks

The Quality of Experience (QoE) of streaming service is often degraded by frequent playback interruptions. To mitigate the interruptions, the media player prefetches streaming contents before starting playback, at a cost of delay. We study the QoE of streaming from the perspective of flow dynamics. First, a framework is developed for QoE when streaming users join the network randomly and leave after downloading completion. We compute the distribution of prefetching delay using partial differential equations (PDEs), and the probability generating function of playout buffer starvations using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for CBR streaming. Second, we extend our framework to characterize the throughput variation caused by opportunistic scheduling at the base station, and the playback variation of VBR streaming. Our study reveals that the flow dynamics is the fundamental reason of playback starvation. The QoE of streaming service is dominated by the first moments such as the average throughput of opportunistic scheduling and the mean playback rate. While the variances of throughput and playback rate have very limited impact on starvation behavior.Comment: 14 page

Inferring Queueing Network Models from High-precision Location Tracking Data

Stochastic performance models are widely used to analyse the performance and reliability of systems that involve the flow and processing of customers. However, traditional methods of constructing a performance model are typically manual, time-consuming, intrusive and labour-intensive. The limited amount and low quality of manually-collected data often lead to an inaccurate picture of customer flows and poor estimates of model parameters. Driven by advances in wireless sensor technologies, recent real-time location systems (RTLSs) enable the automatic, continuous and unintrusive collection of high-precision location tracking data, in both indoor and outdoor environment. This high-quality data provides an ideal basis for the construction of high-fidelity performance models. This thesis presents a four-stage data processing pipeline which takes as input high-precision location tracking data and automatically constructs a queueing network performance model approximating the underlying system. The first two stages transform raw location traces into high-level “event logs” recording when and for how long a customer entity requests service from a server entity. The third stage infers the customer flow structure and extracts samples of time delays involved in the system; including service time, customer interarrival time and customer travelling time. The fourth stage parameterises the service process and customer arrival process of the final output queueing network model. To collect large-enough location traces for the purpose of inference by conducting physical experiments is expensive, labour-intensive and time-consuming. We thus developed LocTrack- JINQS, an open-source simulation library for constructing simulations with location awareness and generating synthetic location tracking data. Finally we examine the effectiveness of the data processing pipeline through four case studies based on both synthetic and real location tracking data. The results show that the methodology performs with moderate success in inferring multi-class queueing networks composed of single-server queues with FIFO, LIFO and priority-based service disciplines; it is also capable of inferring different routing policies, including simple probabilistic routing, class-based routing and shortest-queue routing

Markovian Workload Characterization for QoS Prediction in the Cloud.

Resource allocation in the cloud is usually driven by performance predictions, such as estimates of the future incoming load to the servers or of the quality-of-service (QoS) offered by applications to end users. In this context, characterizing web workload fluctuations in an accurate way is fundamental to understand how to provision cloud resources under time-varying traffic intensities. In this paper, we investigate the Markovian Arrival Processes (MAP) and the related MAP/MAP/1 queueing model as a tool for performance prediction of servers deployed in the cloud. MAPs are a special class of Markov models used as a compact description of the time-varying characteristics of workloads. In addition, MAPs can fit heavy-tail distributions, that are common in HTTP traffic, and can be easily integrated within analytical queueing models to efficiently predict system performance without simulating. By comparison with trace-driven simulation, we observe that existing techniques for MAP parameterization from HTTP log files often lead to inaccurate performance predictions. We then define a maximum likelihood method for fitting MAP parameters based on data commonly available in Apache log files, and a new technique to cope with batch arrivals, which are notoriously difficult to model accurately. Numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy of our approach for performance prediction of web systems. © 2011 IEEE

Accurate Analysis of Quality Properties of Software with Observation-Based Markov Chain Refinement

We introduce a tool-supported method for the automated refinement of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) used to assess quality properties of component-based software. Existing research focuses on improving the efficiency of CTMC analysis and on identifying new applications for this analysis. As such, ensuring that the analysis is accurate by using CTMCs that closely model the behaviour of the analysed software has received relatively little attention. Our new method addresses this gap by refining the high-level CTMC model of a component-based software system based on observations of the execution times of its components. Our refinement method reduced analysis errors by 77–90.3% for a service-based system implemented using six public web services from three different providers, improving the accuracy of the analysis and significantly reducing the risk of invalid software engineering decisions