Investigation of the Impacts of Effective Fuel Cost Increase on the US Air Transportation Network and Fleet

The cost of aviation fuel increased 244% between July 2004 and July 2008, becoming the largest operating cost item for airlines. Given the potential for future increases in crude oil prices, as well as environmental costs (i.e. from cap and trade schemes or taxes), the effective cost of aviation fuel may continue to increase, further impacting airlines’ financial performance and the provision of air service nationwide. We evaluate how fuel price increase and volatility affected continental US air transportation networks and fleets in the short- and medium-term using the increase in the 2007-08 and 2004-08 periods as a natural experiment. It was found that non-hub airports serving small communities lost 12% of connections, compared to an average loss of 2.8%, July 2004-08. It is believed that reduced access to the national air transportation system had social and economic impacts for small communities. Complementary analyses of aircraft fuel efficiency, airline economics, and airfares provided a basis for understanding some airline decisions. Increased effective fuel costs will provide incentives for airlines to improve fleet fuel efficiency, reducing the environmental effects of aviation, but may cause an uneven distribution of social and economic impacts as airline networks adapt. Government action may be required to determine acceptable levels of access to service as the air transportation system transitions to higher fuel costs.The authors would like to thank the MIT Partnership on AiR Transportation Noise & Emissions Reduction (PARTNER) for access to the Piano-X software package and Brian Yutko for his assistance in its use. This work was supported by the MIT/Masdar Institute of Science and Technology under grant number Mubadala Development Co. Agreement 12/1/06

Detect and Avoid: Efforts from NASA's UAS Integration into the NAS Project

NASA's Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) integration into the National Air Space (NAS) project has been working closely with the FAA and RTCA Special Committee 228 to identify and break down barriers to UAS integration. A focus of this work is on detect and avoid (DAA) technologies. A pilot has responsibility to see and avoid other aircraft and to remain "well clear," using their best judgment (Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) Sec. 91.113). For UAS to perform this function, the see function is replaced by sensors to detect the other aircraft. Secondly, the pilot judgment of well clear has to be replaced by a mathematical expression. For Phase 1 of this effort, a well clear violation was defined if all three of these conditions are true: a) the horizontal clearance is less than 4000 ft., and b) the vertical clearance is less than 450 ft., and c) the time to loss of well clear is less than 35 seconds. This definition was developed with a great deal of community input and testing to ensure interoperability with Air Traffic Control (ATC) and pilots of manned aircraft. Appropriate guidance, alerting and displays were developed to allow UAS, with the appropriate sensors, to effectively maintain well clear. This work contributed to FAA Technical Standard Orders: TSO-C211, Detect and Avoid and TSO-C212, ATAR for Traffic Surveillance. Phase 2 of this work extends the operational environment to include the terminal area and lesser capable aircraft that might not have the payload capability to carry the RADAR defined in Phase 1. This session reports on work from Phase 1 and initial work in Phase 2

NASA System-Level Design, Analysis and Simulation Tools Research on NextGen

A review of the research accomplished in 2009 in the System-Level Design, Analysis and Simulation Tools (SLDAST) of the NASA's Airspace Systems Program is presented. This research thrust focuses on the integrated system-level assessment of component level innovations, concepts and technologies of the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen) under research in the ASP program to enable the development of revolutionary improvements and modernization of the National Airspace System. The review includes the accomplishments on baseline research and the advancements on design studies and system-level assessment, including the cluster analysis as an annualization standard of the air traffic in the U.S. National Airspace, and the ACES-Air MIDAS integration for human-in-the-loop analyzes within the NAS air traffic simulation

Systems Engineering Management Plan NASA Traffic Aware Planner Integration Into P-180 Airborne Test-Bed

NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) is a cockpit decision support tool that provides aircrew with vertical and lateral flight-path optimizations with the intent of achieving significant fuel and time savings, while automatically avoiding traffic, weather, and restricted airspace conflicts. A key step towards the maturation and deployment of TAP concerned its operational evaluation in a representative flight environment. This Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) addresses the test-vehicle design, systems integration, and flight-test planning for the first TAP operational flight evaluations, which were successfully completed in November 2013. The trial outcomes are documented in the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight evaluation paper presented at the 14th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, Atlanta, GA. (AIAA-2014-2166, Maris, J. M., Haynes, M. A., Wing, D. J., Burke, K. A., Henderson, J., & Woods, S. E., 2014)

In-Flight Evaluation of the Traffic Aware Planner on the NASA HU-25A Guardian Aircraft

NASAs Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software is a research-prototype decision support tool that provides pilots with time- and fuel-saving route recommendations that optimize their current trajectory. The software runs on a first-of-a-kind system architecture onboard three aircraft in revenue service conducting operational evaluations with a major domestic airline. Therefore, significant NASA-internal testing is required prior to releasing the software to the partner airline. This paper describes a flight test plan that exercises the functionality of the TAP software in a representative operational environment, describes the system architecture developed and implemented for the NASA Langley HU-25A Guardian aircraft to support the test objectives, presents outcomes of the flight test campaign, and discusses use cases that demonstrate the value of flight testing for this activity.Research into flight path optimization of transport aircraft conducted by the National Aeronautics and SpaceAdministration (NASA) has produced an operational concept known as Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests(TASAR) [1, 2]. This near-term concept [3] provides the aircrew with a flight deck decision support tool known asthe Traffic Aware Planner (TAP). The TAP software leverages a growing number of information sources on the flightdeck to make time- and fuel-saving route optimization recommendations to the aircrew while en route. The aircrewcan then use the suggestions provided by the tool to make route change requests with a greater likelihood of acceptanceby air traffic control (ATC). Since TASAR is a concept intended for the current operational environment, it isintentionally designed to have no safety-critical impact or require any changes to current Federal AviationAdministration (FAA) rules and procedures [4, 5].The research prototype TAP system [68], explained further in Section III.C, continually incorporates up-to-dateaircraft state data from onboard avionics, as well as the latest position of surrounding traffic, the most recent windforecast, and the most recent convective weather forecast, in order to calculate candidate trajectory modifications thatimprove upon the current active route. These trajectories account for user-selectable objective functions [3] of reducedfuel burn, reduced flight time, or an airline-derived combination of factors known as trip cost. Previous analyses andsimulations have estimated substantial savings for airlines employing this technique within the U.S. National AirspaceSystem (NAS) [911]. Operational evaluations with Alaska Airlines seek to validate these projected benefits usingmeasured data while simultaneously providing benefits to the airline [12, 13].The TAP software has undergone a number of human-in-the-loop simulations [14] and flight test activities[1517] in order to validate the operational concept, evaluate human factors considerations (e.g., workload, usability,distraction, etc.), and to assess the ability of the software to function in a representative operational environment (e.g.,connected to live avionics data, using in-flight internet connectivity, etc.). However, these simulations and flight testcampaigns did not account for the hardware architecture implemented on the three aircraft for Alaska Airlinesoperational evaluations of the TAP software. Therefore, a need was identified to thoroughly test the functionality ofthe software in a similar hardware architecture to that of the partner airlines aircraft. Information regarding testapparatus and environments used to evaluate TAP prior to testing on the HU-25A can be found in reference [18].A campaign of flight trials on a NASA aircraft, the HU-25A Guardian, was conducted to ensure that the researchprototype TAP system functions well in a configuration similar to the Alaska Airlines aircraft prior to deployment.This airborne, networked environment enables an assessment of the operational factors unique to the flight environment. Additionally, this activity evaluated the effectiveness and benefit of new TAP functionality andoperation in a relevant flight environment while allowing the rapid prototyping of new concepts and features.This paper is organized as follows: Section II discusses the details of the flight test plan, flight profiles, and theduties of personnel involved with conducting flight operations. Section III describes the test platform, avionicsequipage, and system architecture. Section IV presents a discussion of results, and Section V contains concludingremarks

Exploratory Analysis of the Airspace Throughput and Sensitivities of an Urban Air Mobility System

The use of small, vertical-takeoff and landing aircraft to provide efficient, high-speed, ondemand passenger transportation within a metropolitan area (e.g. intra-city transportation) is a topic of increasing interest and investment within the aerospace and transportation communities. Preliminary, mostly vehicle-level analysis suggests that passenger-carrying Urban Air Mobility has the potential to provide meaningful door-to-door trip time savings compared to identical trips taken solely by automobile, even for relatively short trips of a few tens of miles. Subsequent analysis has shown that if such trips can be conducted at costs competitive with ground transportation, the demand for such flight operations, not surprisingly, becomes unprecedented by historical airspace operations counts, raising fundamental questions regarding feasibility, practicality, capacity and basic system attributes such as separation criteria. In this paper, we conduct a preliminary assessment of vertipad requirements and en route separation minima relative to the feasibility of large-scale urban aviation operations. This analysis is acknowledged as being far from comprehensive and is intended to help define the initial boundaries of an airspace system compatible with enabling high-volume operations

Use of Data Comm by Flight Crew to Conduct Interval Management Operations to Parallel Dependent Runways

The Interval Management (IM) concept is being developed as a method to maintain or increase high traffic density airport arrival throughput while allowing aircraft to conduct near idle thrust descents. The Interval Management with Spacing to Parallel Dependent Runways (IMSPiDR1) experiment at NASA Langley Research Center used 24 commercial pilots to examine IM procedures to conduct parallel dependent runway arrival operations while maintaining safe but efficient intervals behind the preceding aircraft. The use of IM procedures during these operations requires a lengthy and complex clearance from Air Traffic Control (ATC) to the participating aircraft, thereby making the use of Controller Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) highly desirable as the communication method. The use of CPDLC reduces the need for voice transmissions between controllers and flight crew, and enables automated transfer of IM clearance elements into flight management systems or other aircraft avionics. The result is reduced crew workload and an increase in the efficiency of crew procedures. This paper focuses on the subset of data collected related to the use of CPDLC for IM operations into a busy airport. Overall, the experiment and results were very successful, with the mean time under 43 seconds for the flight crew to load the clearance into the IM spacing tool, review the calculated speed, and respond to ATC. An overall mean rating of Moderately Agree was given when the crews were asked if the use of CPDLC was operationally acceptable as simulated in this experiment. Approximately half of the flight crew reported the use of CPDLC below 10,000 for IM operations was unacceptable, with 83% reporting below 5000 was unacceptable. Also described are proposed modifications to the IM operations that may reduce CPDLC Respond time to less than 30 seconds and should significantly reduce the complexity of crew procedures, as well as follow-on research issues for operational use of CPDLC during IM operations

Feasibility Study of Short Takeoff and Landing Urban Air Mobility Vehicles Using Geometric Programming

Electric Short Takeoff and Landing (eSTOL) vehicles are proposed as a path towards implementing an Urban Air Mobility (UAM) network that reduces critical vehicle certification risks and offers advantages in vehicle performance compared to the widely proposed Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing (eVTOL) aircraft. An overview is given of the system constraints and key enabling technologies that must be incorporated into the design of the vehicle. The tradeoffs between vehicle performance and runway length are investigated using geometric programming, a robust optimization framework. Runway lengths as short as 100-300 ft are shown to be feasible, depending on the level of technology and the desired cruise speed. The tradeoffs between runway length and the potential to build new infrastructure in urban centers are investigated using Boston as a representative case study. The placement of some runways up to 600ft is shown to be possible in the urban center, with a significant increase in the number of potential locations for runways shorter than 300ft. Key challenges and risks to implementation are discussed

Optimizing Integrated Terminal Airspace Operations Under Uncertainty

In the terminal airspace, integrated departures and arrivals have the potential to increase operations efficiency. Recent research has developed geneticalgorithm- based schedulers for integrated arrival and departure operations under uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate method using a machine jobshop scheduling formulation to model the integrated airspace operations. A multistage stochastic programming approach is chosen to formulate the problem and candidate solutions are obtained by solving sample average approximation problems with finite sample size. Because approximate solutions are computed, the proposed algorithm incorporates the computation of statistical bounds to estimate the optimality of the candidate solutions. A proof-ofconcept study is conducted on a baseline implementation of a simple problem considering a fleet mix of 14 aircraft evolving in a model of the Los Angeles terminal airspace. A more thorough statistical analysis is also performed to evaluate the impact of the number of scenarios considered in the sampled problem. To handle extensive sampling computations, a multithreading technique is introduced

Predicting the Operational Acceptability of Route Advisories

NASA envisions a future Air Traffic Management system that allows safe, efficient growth in global operations, enabled by increasing levels of automation and autonomy. In a safety-critical system, the introduction of increasing automation and autonomy has to be done in stages, making human-system integrated concepts critical in the foreseeable future. One example where this is relevant is for tools that generate more efficient flight routings or reroute advisories. If these routes are not operationally acceptable, they will be rejected by human operators, and the associated benefits will not be realized. Operational acceptance is therefore required to enable the increased efficiency and reduced workload benefits associated with these tools. In this paper, the authors develop a predictor of operational acceptability for reroute advisories. Such a capability has applications in tools that identify more efficient routings around weather and congestion and that better meet airline preferences. The capability is based on applying data mining techniques to flight plan amendment data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration and data on requested reroutes collected from a field trial of the NASA developed Dynamic Weather Routes tool, which advised efficient route changes to American Airlines dispatchers in 2014. 10-Fold cross validation was used for feature, model and parameter selection, while nested cross validation was used to validate the model. The model performed well in predicting controller acceptance or rejection of a route change as indicated by chosen performance metrics. Features identified as relevant to controller acceptance included the historical usage of the advised route, the location of the maneuver start point relative to the boundaries of the airspace sector containing the maneuver start (the maneuver start sector), the reroute deviation from the original flight plan, and the demand level in the maneuver start sector. A random forest with forty trees was the best performing of the five models evaluated in this paper