A survey on rainfall forecasting using artificial neural network

Rainfall has a great impact on agriculture and people’s daily travel, so accurate prediction of precipitation is well worth studying for researchers. Traditional methods like numerical weather prediction (NWP) models or statistical models can’t provide satisfied effect of rainfall forecasting because of nonlinear and dynamic characteristics of precipitation. However, artificial neural network (ANN) has an ability to obtain complicated nonlinear relationship between variables, which is suitable to predict precipitation. This paper mainly introduces background knowledge of ANN and several algorithms using neural network applied to precipitation prediction in recent years. It is proved that neural network can greatly improve the accuracy and efficiency of prediction

Multilayered feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network models. In formulating the Artificial Neural Network based predictive model, three layered networks have been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The models under study are different in the number of hidden neurons. After a thorough training and test procedure, neural net with three nodes in the hidden layer is found to be the best predictive model.Comment: 19 pages, 1 table, 3 figure

A Review on the Application of Natural Computing in Environmental Informatics

Natural computing offers new opportunities to understand, model and analyze the complexity of the physical and human-created environment. This paper examines the application of natural computing in environmental informatics, by investigating related work in this research field. Various nature-inspired techniques are presented, which have been employed to solve different relevant problems. Advantages and disadvantages of these techniques are discussed, together with analysis of how natural computing is generally used in environmental research.Comment: Proc. of EnviroInfo 201

Calibration of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts with an artificial neural network

A feed-forward neural network is configured to calibrate the bias of a high-resolution probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast (PQPF) produced by a 12-km version of the NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM) ensemble forecast system. Twice-daily forecasts during the 2002-2003 cool season (1 November-31 March, inclusive) are run over four U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic unit regions of the southwest United States. Calibration is performed via a cross-validation procedure, where four months are used for training and the excluded month is used for testing. The PQPFs before and after the calibration over a hydrological unit region are evaluated by comparing the joint probability distribution of forecasts and observations. Verification is performed on the 4-km stage IV grid, which is used as "truth." The calibration procedure improves the Brier score (BrS), conditional bias (reliability) and forecast skill, such as the Brier skill score (BrSS) and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS), relative to the sample frequency for all geographic regions and most precipitation thresholds. However, the procedure degrades the resolution of the PQPFs by systematically producing more forecasts with low nonzero forecast probabilities that drive the forecast distribution closer to the climatology of the training sample. The problem of degrading the resolution is most severe over the Colorado River basin and the Great Basin for relatively high precipitation thresholds where the sample of observed events is relatively small. © 2007 American Meteorological Society

A Survey on Support Vector Machines and Artificial Neural Network in Rainfall Forecasting

The Rain Fall Forecasting is very necessary for agriculture based countries. To increase the productivity of Crop, utilization of water and to avoid the problems of floods needs to know the Rain Fall prediction. In previous years the prediction was done by the statistical methods, but these methods not give the proper results. Now the researchers move from the traditional methods to classification methods. The classification method Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) yields accurate results in Rain Fall Forecasting. This paper gives the complete survey on (ANN) and SVM for Forecasting the Rain Fall. In this study clearly explains the issues involved in predicting the Rain Fall

A Comprehensive Survey of Data Mining Techniques on Time Series Data for Rainfall Prediction

Time series data available in huge amounts can be used in decision-making. Such time series data can be converted into information to be used for forecasting. Various techniques are available for prediction and forecasting on the basis of time series data. Presently, the use of data mining techniques for this purpose is increasing day by day. In the present study, a comprehensive survey of data mining approaches and statistical techniques for rainfall prediction on time series data was conducted. A detailed comparison of different relevant techniques was also conducted and some plausible solutions are suggested for efficient time series data mining techniques for future algorithms.

Forecasting of Medium-term Rainfall Using Artificial Neural Networks: Case Studies from Eastern Australia

The advent of machine learning, of which artificial neural networks (ANN) are a component, has provided an opportunity for improved rainfall forecasts, which is of value for water infrastructure management, agriculture, mining and other industries. In this chapter, ANNs are shown to provide more skillful monthly rainfall forecasts for locations in south-eastern Queensland, Australia, for lead-times of 3–12 months. The skill of the forecasts from the ANNs is highest when the models are individually optimized for each month, and when longer-duration series are used as input. The ANN technique has application where there is temperature and rainfall data extending back at least 50 years. Such datasets exist for much of Europe and North America, though a review of the available literature indicates most research into the application of ANN has focused on China, India and Australia