An Analysis of the Estimate at Complete for Department of Defense Contracts

When contractors provide timely and reliable information on the status of a contract, both contractors and government program offices can provide an accurate estimate of a contract’s completion costs. This research shows that the cumulative cost performance indices provided by contractors and program offices are high and less accurate than those of previous years and/or that a significant amount of ACWP is being documented in the final portion of a contract. The high performance indices resulted in EACs that were low-balled during the majority of a contract’s life which shows a need to improve the use of EVM metrics for effective project and program management. This research replicates Christensen’s findings in 1996 which proved that using the SCI was a more accurate indicator of EAC vice the CPI. Consistent with Christensen’s research, SCI is still a more accurate indicator of CAC according to this study but not by a significant amount. When SCI is used to predict the final cost on contracts from the 21st century, a 5% deviation from the final cost starts at the 70% complete point when using both CPI and SCI as the performance indicator

An Empirical Model for Assessing Academic Research Levels and Capacities of Colleges and Universities

The purpose of this dissertation was to develop an empirical model for assessing research levels and estimating research capacities of institutions of higher education. Using data obtained from the U.S. Department of Education, separate research assessment models were developed for public and private colleges and universities. These empirical models were used to investigate two aspects of academic research levels: (1) the effects of institution group size (very large, moderately large, high medium, low medium, small, and very small) on the amount of educational and general (E&G) funds allocated to research, and (2) the effects of institution group size on research capacity utilization. For the very large public institution group size (the top 17 percent of institutions in terms of enrollment), it was found that the average percent of E&G funds allocated to research was significantly greater than for the other group sizes. For the moderately large to very small group sizes, there were no significant differences in the percent of E&G funds allocated to research. The very large public institutions allocated approximately 21 percent of E&G funds to research, while the smaller institutions allocated approximately 12 percent to the research function. For private institutions, the average amount of the E&G budget allocated to research was the same for all group sizes. With regard to the second aspect of research levels, it was found that public institution group size had no effect on research capacity utilization. Similar results were obtained for private institutions. The final conclusion reached in this study was that the empirical models developed here would be useful tools in the research assessment process

Contact Center Employee Characteristics Associated with Customer Satisfaction

The management of operations for a customer contact center (CCC) presents significant challenges. Management\u27s direction is to reduce costs through operational efficiency metrics while providing maximum customer satisfaction levels to retain customers and increase profit margins. The purpose of this correlational study was to quantify the significance of various customer service representative (CSR) characteristics including internal service quality, employee satisfaction, and employee productivity, and then to determine their predictive ability on customer satisfaction, as outlined in the service-profit chain model. The research question addressed whether a linear relationship existed between CSR characteristics and the customers\u27 satisfaction with the CSR by applying ordinary least squares regression using archival dyadic data. The data consisted of a random sample of 269 CSRs serving a large Canadian bank. Various subsets of data were analyzed via regression to help generate actionable insights. One particular model involving poor performing CSRs whose customer satisfaction was less than 75% top box proved to be statistically significant (p = .036, R-squared = .321) suggesting that poor performing CSRs contribute to a significant portion of poor customer service while high performing CSRs do not necessarily guarantee good customer service. A key variable used in this research was a CSR\u27s level of education, which was not significant. Such a finding implies that for CCC support, a less-educated labor pool may be maintained, balancing societal benefits of employment for less-educated people at a reasonable service cost to a company. These findings relate to positive social change as hiring less-educated applicants could increase their social and economic status

Cluster Analysis of Opioid Accessibility in the Carolinas Using Data from the ARCOS Database and an Enhanced Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method

This study takes advantage of transaction level data from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration\u27s (DEA) Automation of Reports and Consolidated Orders System (ARCOS) database made newly available under court order by The Washington Post in July 2019. This data details individual shipments of pharmaceutical opioid analgesics from wholesalers to retail distributors. Using the Enhanced 2-Step Floating Catchment Area (E2SFCA) method, this study calculated access to opioid morphine milligram equivalents (MME) per capita for census tracts in North Carolina and South Carolina during the year 2009. This study demonstrated that outlier volumes of opioid analgesics at individual pharmacies are not always co-located with census tracts that have access to outlier per capita opioid volumes. In addition, this study used 5-year average American Community Survey (ACS) data to identify distinct populations and compare their access to opioid analgesics using a k-medoids clustering algorithm. While opioid access for most clusters corresponded to previous research, a rural, socially vulnerable African American population in the Low Country of both states was identified with high access to opioid analgesics. This finding is contrary to previous research, indicating the need for further investigation

High School Completion Categories and Post-High School Plans as Predictors of GED Certificate Attainment in a Virginia Alternative Education Program

AbstractA state-wide Individual Student Alternative Education Plan (ISAEP) seeks to assist high school (HS) students at risk of not graduating in completing HS credentials. The problem was that there was no formal state-wide process for monitoring the program to understand its impact. The purpose of this quantitative exploratory study was to determine whether the graduation variables that were published by the state could be used to predict ISAEP GED attainment. The Theory of Action proposed by McPartland and Jordan guided two main research questions to see if ISAEP GED attainment could be predicted by categories of HS completion, and if ISAEP GED attainment could be predicted by students’ post-HS plans. An archived convenience sample of ISAEP (N =131) and non-ISAEP (N = 171) schools was downloaded from a public-access database provided by the state. A weighted least squares regression (WLSR) revealed that two of the six graduation categories; Standard Diplomas and Advanced Studies Diplomas, significantly predicted ISAEP GED attainment, F(2, 86) = 10.934, p \u3c .001, with Advanced Studies being negatively related. A second WLSR was significant with two of the six post-high school plan variables. Other Continuing Education and Military Service predicted ISAEP GED, F(3, 85) = 7.614, p \u3c .001 better than the mean model alone. Because other variables are collected at the school level and not made available in the public database, it was recommended that a data committee be formed to study alternative variables that could be published by the state to improve the fidelity of future studies and the ability to continue adding to the understanding of how the ISAEP is related to student achievement. Positive social change is achieved when alternative education programs result in greater student success

Assessment of Safety impacts of Shoulder Paving in Illinois highways Using Empirical Bayesian and Cross-Sectional Analyses

La presente tesina documenta la calibración de funciones “de Seguridad” (Safety Performance Functions, SPF) para accidentes de tipo fatal, lesión y daños al vehículo para carreteras Interestatales, carriles múltiples y dos carriles ya sean rurales o urbanas, usando datos de segmentos de carreteras que no han recibido ningún tratamiento (siendo los tratamientos posibles repavimentado y/o pavimentado de arcenes) para el periodo 2000-2006. También se documenta la evaluación de impactos de seguridad de pavimentación de arcenes en la reducción de accidentes potencialmente afectados por el pavimentado de arcenes usando el análisis Bayesiano Empírico (EB) y el análisis de datos cruzados

Assessment of Safety impacts of Shoulder Paving in Illinois highways Using Empirical Bayesian and Cross-Sectional Analyses

La presente tesina documenta la calibración de funciones “de Seguridad” (Safety Performance Functions, SPF) para accidentes de tipo fatal, lesión y daños al vehículo para carreteras Interestatales, carriles múltiples y dos carriles ya sean rurales o urbanas, usando datos de segmentos de carreteras que no han recibido ningún tratamiento (siendo los tratamientos posibles repavimentado y/o pavimentado de arcenes) para el periodo 2000-2006. También se documenta la evaluación de impactos de seguridad de pavimentación de arcenes en la reducción de accidentes potencialmente afectados por el pavimentado de arcenes usando el análisis Bayesiano Empírico (EB) y el análisis de datos cruzados

A quantitative assessment of arboreality in tropical amphibians across an elevation gradient: can arboreal animals find above-ground refuge from climate warming?

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Structural Change

In 1984, the University of Bonn (FRG) and IIASA created a joint research group to analyze the relationship between economic growth and structural change. The research team was to examine the commodity composition as well as the size and direction of commodity and credit flows among countries and regions. Krelle (1988) reports on the results of this "Bonn-IIASA" research project. At the same time, an informal IIASA Working Group was initiated to deal with problems of the statistical analysis of economic data in the context of structural change: What tools do we have to identify nonconstancy of model parameters? What type of models are particularly applicable to nonconstant structure? How is forecasting affected by the presence of nonconstant structure? What problems should be anticipated in applying these tools and models? Some 50 experts, mainly statisticians or econometricians from about 15 countries, came together in Lodz, Poland (May 1985); Berlin, GDR (June 1986); and Sulejov, Poland (September 1986) to present and discuss their findings. This volume contains a selected set of those conference contributions as well as several specially invited chapters. The introductory chapter "What can statistics contribute to the analysis of economic structural change?", discusses not only the role of statistics in the detection and assimilation of structural changes, but also the relevance of respective methods in the evaluation of econometric models. Trends in the development of these methods are indicated, and the contributions to the present volume are put into a broader context of empirical economics to help to bridge the gap between economists and statisticians. The chapters in the first section are concerned with the detection of parameter nonconstancy. The procedures discussed range from classical methods, such as the CUSUM test, to new concepts, particularly those based on nonparametric statistics. Several chapters assess the conditions under which these methods can be applied and their robustness under such conditions. The second section addresses models that are in some sense generalizations of nonconstant-parameter models, so that they can assimilate structural changes. The last section deals with real-life structural change situations