Advancing Agricultural Production With Machine Learning Analytics: Yield Determinants for California's Almond Orchards.

Agricultural productivity is subject to various stressors, including abiotic and biotic threats, many of which are exacerbated by a changing climate, thereby affecting long-term sustainability. The productivity of tree crops such as almond orchards, is particularly complex. To understand and mitigate these threats requires a collection of multi-layer large data sets, and advanced analytics is also critical to integrate these highly heterogeneous datasets to generate insights about the key constraints on the yields at tree and field scales. Here we used a machine learning approach to investigate the determinants of almond yield variation in California's almond orchards, based on a unique 10-year dataset of field measurements of light interception and almond yield along with meteorological data. We found that overall the maximum almond yield was highly dependent on light interception, e.g., with each one percent increase in light interception resulting in an increase of 57.9 lbs/acre in the potential yield. Light interception was highest for mature sites with higher long term mean spring incoming solar radiation (SRAD), and lowest for younger orchards when March maximum temperature was lower than 19°C. However, at any given level of light interception, actual yield often falls significantly below full yield potential, driven mostly by tree age, temperature profiles in June and winter, summer mean daily maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPDmax), and SRAD. Utilizing a full random forest model, 82% (±1%) of yield variation could be explained when using a sixfold cross validation, with a RMSE of 480 ± 9 lbs/acre. When excluding light interception from the predictors, overall orchard characteristics (such as age, location, and tree density) and inclusive meteorological variables could still explain 78% of yield variation. The model analysis also showed that warmer winter conditions often limited mature orchards from reaching maximum yield potential and summer VPDmax beyond 40 hPa significantly limited the yield. Our findings through the machine learning approach improved our understanding of the complex interaction between climate, canopy light interception, and almond nut production, and demonstrated a relatively robust predictability of almond yield. This will ultimately benefit data-driven climate adaptation and orchard nutrient management approaches

Quantitative estimation of vegetation traits and temporal dynamics using 3-D radiative transfer models, high-resolution hyperspectral images and satellite imagery

Large-scale monitoring of vegetation dynamics by remote sensing is key to detecting early signs of vegetation decline. Spectral-based indicators of phys-iological plant traits (PTs) have the potential to quantify variations in pho-tosynthetic pigments, chlorophyll fluorescence emission, and structural changes of vegetation as a function of stress. However, the specific response of PTs to disease-induced decline in heterogeneous canopies remains largely unknown, which is critical for the early detection of irreversible damage at different scales. Four specific objectives were defined in this research: i) to assess the feasibility of modelling the incidence and severity of Phytophthora cinnamomi and Xylella fastidiosa based on PTs and biophysical properties of vegetation; ii) to assess non-visual early indicators, iii) to retrieve PT using radiative transfer models (RTM), high-resolution imagery and satellite observations; and iv) to establish the basis for scaling up PTs at different spatial resolutions using RTM for their retrieval in different vegetation co-vers. This thesis integrates different approaches combining field data, air- and space-borne imagery, and physical and empirical models that allow the retrieval of indicators and the evaluation of each component’s contribution to understanding temporal variations of disease-induced symptoms in heter-ogeneous canopies. Furthermore, the effects associated with the understory are introduced, showing not only their impact but also providing a compre-hensive model to account for it. Consequently, a new methodology has been established to detect vegetation health processes and the influence of biotic and abiotic factors, considering different components of the canopy and their impact on the aggregated signal. It is expected that, using the presented methods, existing remote sensors and future developments, the ability to detect and assess vegetation health globally will have a substantial impact not only on socio-economic factors, but also on the preservation of our eco-system as a whole

Yield sensing technologies for perennial and annual horticultural crops: a review

Yield maps provide a detailed account of crop production and potential revenue of a farm. This level of details enables a range of possibilities from improving input management, conducting on-farm experimentation, or generating profitability map, thus creating value for farmers. While this technology is widely available for field crops such as maize, soybean and grain, few yield sensing systems exist for horticultural crops such as berries, field vegetable or orchards. Nevertheless, a wide range of techniques and technologies have been investigated as potential means of sensing crop yield for horticultural crops. This paper reviews yield monitoring approaches that can be divided into proximal, either direct or indirect, and remote measurement principles. It reviews remote sensing as a way to estimate and forecast yield prior to harvest. For each approach, basic principles are explained as well as examples of application in horticultural crops and success rate. The different approaches provide whether a deterministic (direct measurement of weight for instance) or an empirical (capacitance measurements correlated to weight for instance) result, which may impact transferability. The discussion also covers the level of precision required for different tasks and the trend and future perspectives. This review demonstrated the need for more commercial solutions to map yield of horticultural crops. It also showed that several approaches have demonstrated high success rate and that combining technologies may be the best way to provide enough accuracy and robustness for future commercial systems

Fruit Detection and Tree Segmentation for Yield Mapping in Orchards

Accurate information gathering and processing is critical for precision horticulture, as growers aim to optimise their farm management practices. An accurate inventory of the crop that details its spatial distribution along with health and maturity, can help farmers efficiently target processes such as chemical and fertiliser spraying, crop thinning, harvest management, labour planning and marketing. Growers have traditionally obtained this information by using manual sampling techniques, which tend to be labour intensive, spatially sparse, expensive, inaccurate and prone to subjective biases. Recent advances in sensing and automation for field robotics allow for key measurements to be made for individual plants throughout an orchard in a timely and accurate manner. Farmer operated machines or unmanned robotic platforms can be equipped with a range of sensors to capture a detailed representation over large areas. Robust and accurate data processing techniques are therefore required to extract high level information needed by the grower to support precision farming. This thesis focuses on yield mapping in orchards using image and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data captured using an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV). The contribution is the framework and algorithmic components for orchard mapping and yield estimation that is applicable to different fruit types and orchard configurations. The framework includes detection of fruits in individual images and tracking them over subsequent frames. The fruit counts are then associated to individual trees, which are segmented from image and LiDAR data, resulting in a structured spatial representation of yield. The first contribution of this thesis is the development of a generic and robust fruit detection algorithm. Images captured in the outdoor environment are susceptible to highly variable external factors that lead to significant appearance variations. Specifically in orchards, variability is caused by changes in illumination, target pose, tree types, etc. The proposed techniques address these issues by using state-of-the-art feature learning approaches for image classification, while investigating the utility of orchard domain knowledge for fruit detection. Detection is performed using both pixel-wise classification of images followed instance segmentation, and bounding-box regression approaches. The experimental results illustrate the versatility of complex deep learning approaches over a multitude of fruit types. The second contribution of this thesis is a tree segmentation approach to detect the individual trees that serve as a standard unit for structured orchard information systems. The work focuses on trellised trees, which present unique challenges for segmentation algorithms due to their intertwined nature. LiDAR data are used to segment the trellis face, and to generate proposals for individual trees trunks. Additional trunk proposals are provided using pixel-wise classification of the image data. The multi-modal observations are fine-tuned by modelling trunk locations using a hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM), within which prior knowledge of tree spacing is incorporated. The final component of this thesis addresses the visual occlusion of fruit within geometrically complex canopies by using a multi-view detection and tracking approach. Single image fruit detections are tracked over a sequence of images, and associated to individual trees or farm rows, with the spatial distribution of the fruit counting forming a yield map over the farm. The results show the advantage of using multi-view imagery (instead of single view analysis) for fruit counting and yield mapping. This thesis includes extensive experimentation in almond, apple and mango orchards, with data captured by a UGV spanning a total of 5 hectares of farm area, over 30 km of vehicle traversal and more than 7,000 trees. The validation of the different processes is performed using manual annotations, which includes fruit and tree locations in image and LiDAR data respectively. Additional evaluation of yield mapping is performed by comparison against fruit counts on trees at the farm and counts made by the growers post-harvest. The framework developed in this thesis is demonstrated to be accurate compared to ground truth at all scales of the pipeline, including fruit detection and tree mapping, leading to accurate yield estimation, per tree and per row, for the different crops. Through the multitude of field experiments conducted over multiple seasons and years, the thesis presents key practical insights necessary for commercial development of an information gathering system in orchards

A computational model for path loss in wireless sensor networks in orchard environments.

A computational model for radio wave propagation through tree orchards is presented. Trees are modeled as collections of branches, geometrically approximated by cylinders, whose dimensions are determined on the basis of measurements in a cherry orchard. Tree canopies are modeled as dielectric spheres of appropriate size. A single row of trees was modeled by creating copies of a representative tree model positioned on top of a rectangular, lossy dielectric slab that simulated the ground. The complete scattering model, including soil and trees, enhanced by periodicity conditions corresponding to the array, was characterized via a commercial computational software tool for simulating the wave propagation by means of the Finite Element Method. The attenuation of the simulated signal was compared to measurements taken in the cherry orchard, using two ZigBee receiver-transmitter modules. Near the top of the tree canopies (at 3 m), the predicted attenuation was close to the measured one-just slightly underestimated. However, at 1.5 m the solver underestimated the measured attenuation significantly, especially when leaves were present and, as distances grew longer. This suggests that the effects of scattering from neighboring tree rows need to be incorporated into the model. However, complex geometries result in ill conditioned linear systems that affect the solver's convergence

Row-sensing Templates: A Generic 3D Sensor-based Approach to Robot Localization with Respect to Orchard Row Centerlines

Accurate robot localization relative to orchard row centerlines is essential for autonomous guidance where satellite signals are often obstructed by foliage. Existing sensor-based approaches rely on various features extracted from images and point clouds. However, any selected features are not available consistently, because the visual and geometrical characteristics of orchard rows change drastically when tree types, growth stages, canopy management practices, seasons, and weather conditions change. In this work, we introduce a novel localization method that doesn't rely on features; instead, it relies on the concept of a row-sensing template, which is the expected observation of a 3D sensor traveling in an orchard row, when the sensor is anywhere on the centerline and perfectly aligned with it. First, the template is built using a few measurements, provided that the sensor's true pose with respect to the centerline is available. Then, during navigation, the best pose estimate (and its confidence) is estimated by maximizing the match between the template and the sensed point cloud using particle-filtering. The method can adapt to various orchards and conditions by re-building the template. Experiments were performed in a vineyard, and in an orchard in different seasons. Results showed that the lateral mean absolute error (MAE) was less than 3.6% of the row width, and the heading MAE was less than 1.72 degrees. Localization was robust, as errors didn't increase when less than 75% of measurement points were missing. The results indicate that template-based localization can provide a generic approach for accurate and robust localization in real-world orchards

Dynamics of agrarian landscapes in Western Thailand : Agro-ecological zonation and agricultural transformations in Kanjanaburi Province: hypotheses for improving farming systems sustainability

Ce document traite de la zonation agroécologique à petite échelle, comme outil essentiel dans la recherche orientée sur les systèmes agraires en vue du développement. Ces systèmes sont définis comme modes d'exploitation adaptés à l'environnement (naturel et humain) y compris échanges de produit et patrimoine culturel; l'étude comprend systèmes de production et de culture, et types d'utilisation des sols. Les diverses relations entre éléments sont analysées dans l'espace et le temps de façon à dégager la dynamique des transformations. Le projet a fait intervenir des équipes pluridisciplinaires comprenant agronomes et spécialistes des ressources naturelles en sociologie et télédétection; le tout aux niveaux de la parcelle et de l'exploitation agricole. Le texte, qui comporte un glossaire technique précis, est illustré de six clichés en couleurs (cultures de maïs, cotonnier, manioc, manguiers) et d'une image digitale en couleurs d'une partie de l'ouest de la Thaïlande vue du satellite Landsat-T