System Architecture Design Using Multi-Criteria Optimization

System architecture is defined as the description of a complex system in terms of its functional requirements, physical elements and their interrelationships. Designing a complex system architecture can be a difficult task involving multi-faceted trade-off decisions. The system architecture designs often have many project-specific goals involving mix of quantitative and qualitative criteria and a large design trade space. Several tools and methods have been developed to support the system architecture design process in the last few decades. However, many conventional problem solving techniques face difficulties in dealing with complex system design problems having many goals. In this research work, an interactive multi-criteria design optimization framework is proposed for solving many-objective system architecture design problems and generating a well distributed set of Pareto optimal solutions for these problems. System architecture design using multi-criteria optimization is demonstrated using a real-world application of an aero engine health management (EHM) system. A design process is presented for the optimal deployment of the EHM system functional operations over physical architecture subsystems. The EHM system architecture design problem is formulated as a multi-criteria optimization problem. The proposed methodology successfully generates a well distributed family of Pareto optimal architecture solutions for the EHM system, which provides valuable insights into the design trade-offs. Uncertainty analysis is implemented using an efficient polynomial chaos approach and robust architecture solutions are obtained for the EHM system architecture design. Performance assessment through evaluation of benchmark test metrics demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed methodology

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric

Partner selection in virtual enterprises

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Industrial e Gestão. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 200

Metaheuristic Algorithms for Spatial Multi-Objective Decision Making

Spatial decision making is an everyday activity, common to individuals and organizations. However, recently there is an increasing interest in the importance of spatial decision-making systems, as more decision-makers with concerns about sustainability, social, economic, environmental, land use planning, and transportation issues discover the benefits of geographical information. Many spatial decision problems are regarded as optimization problems, which involve a large set of feasible alternatives, multiple conflicting objectives that are difficult and complex to solve. Hence, Multi-Objective Optimization methods (MOO)—metaheuristic algorithms integrated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are appealing to be powerful tools in these regards, yet their implementation in spatial context is still challenging. In this thesis, various metaheuristic algorithms are adopted and improved to solve complex spatial problems. Disaster management and urban planning are used as case studies of this thesis.These case studies are explored in the four papers that are part of this thesis. In paper I, four metaheuristic algorithms have been implemented on the same spatial multi-objective problem—evacuation planning, to investigate their performance and potential. The findings show that all tested algorithms were effective in solving the problem, although in general, some had higher performance, while others showed the potential of being flexible to be modified to fit better to the problem. In the same context, paper II identified the effectiveness of the Multi-objective Artificial Bee Colony (MOABC) algorithm when improved to solve the evacuation problem. In paper III, we proposed a multi-objective optimization approach for urban evacuation planning that considered three spatial objectives which were optimized using an improved Multi-Objective Cuckoo Search algorithm (MOCS). Both improved algorithms (MOABC and MOCS) proved to be efficient in solving evacuation planning when compared to their standard version and other algorithms. Moreover, Paper IV proposed an urban land-use allocation model that involved three spatial objectives and proposed an improved Non-dominated Sorting Biogeography-based Optimization algorithm (NSBBO) to solve the problem efficiently and effectively.Overall, the work in this thesis demonstrates that different metaheuristic algorithms have the potential to change the way spatial decision problems are structured and can improve the transparency and facilitate decision-makers to map solutions and interactively modify decision preferences through trade-offs between multiple objectives. Moreover, the obtained results can be used in a systematic way to develop policy recommendations. From the perspective of GIS - Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) research, the thesis contributes to spatial optimization modelling and extended knowledge on the application of metaheuristic algorithms. The insights from this thesis could also benefit the development and practical implementation of other Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to enhance the capabilities of GIS for tackling complex spatial multi-objective decision problems in the future

Understanding User Intent Modeling for Conversational Recommender Systems: A Systematic Literature Review

Context: User intent modeling is a crucial process in Natural Language Processing that aims to identify the underlying purpose behind a user's request, enabling personalized responses. With a vast array of approaches introduced in the literature (over 13,000 papers in the last decade), understanding the related concepts and commonly used models in AI-based systems is essential. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review to gather data on models typically employed in designing conversational recommender systems. From the collected data, we developed a decision model to assist researchers in selecting the most suitable models for their systems. Additionally, we performed two case studies to evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed decision model. Results: Our study analyzed 59 distinct models and identified 74 commonly used features. We provided insights into potential model combinations, trends in model selection, quality concerns, evaluation measures, and frequently used datasets for training and evaluating these models. Contribution: Our study contributes practical insights and a comprehensive understanding of user intent modeling, empowering the development of more effective and personalized conversational recommender systems. With the Conversational Recommender System, researchers can perform a more systematic and efficient assessment of fitting intent modeling frameworks

DISCRET: An Interactive Decision Support System for Discrete Alternatives Multicriteria Problems

This paper is one of the series of 11 Working Papers presenting the software for interactive decision support and software tools for developing decision support systems. These products constitute the outcome of the contracted study agreement between the System and Decision Sciences Program at IIASA and several Polish scientific institutions. The theoretical part of these results is presented in the IIASA Working Paper WP-88-071 entitled "Theory, Software and Testing Examples in Decision Support Systems" which contains the theoretical and methodological backgrounds of the software systems developed within the project. This paper presents the DISCRET system. This system has been designed to solve basic multicriteria choice problems in which a finite set of feasible alternatives is explicitly given and for each alternative the value of all criteria are known. The decision maker is assumed to be rational in the sense that he can accept a Pareto-optimal solution as his final solution of the problem. Such a decision problem is rather simple as long as the number of criteria and alternatives is small. However, if the number of alternatives and/or criteria grows, the human information processing capabilities may reach their limits and therefore decision support facilities need to be utilized to guarantee efficient decision making

Understanding Complexity in Multiobjective Optimization

This report documents the program and outcomes of the Dagstuhl Seminar 15031 Understanding Complexity in Multiobjective Optimization. This seminar carried on the series of four previous Dagstuhl Seminars (04461, 06501, 09041 and 12041) that were focused on Multiobjective Optimization, and strengthening the links between the Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization (EMO) and Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) communities. The purpose of the seminar was to bring together researchers from the two communities to take part in a wide-ranging discussion about the different sources and impacts of complexity in multiobjective optimization. The outcome was a clarified viewpoint of complexity in the various facets of multiobjective optimization, leading to several research initiatives with innovative approaches for coping with complexity

Assessing the current landscape of AI and sustainability literature:Identifying key trends, addressing gaps and challenges

The United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals stress the importance of global and local efforts to address inequalities and implement sustainability. Addressing complex, interconnected sustainability challenges requires a systematic, interdisciplinary approach, where technology, AI, and data-driven methods offer potential solutions for optimizing resources, integrating different aspects of sustainability, and informed decision-making. Sustainability research surrounds various local, regional, and global challenges, emphasizing the need to identify emerging areas and gaps where AI and data-driven models play a crucial role. The study performs a comprehensive literature survey and scientometric and semantic analyses, categorizes data-driven methods for sustainability problems, and discusses the sustainable use of AI and big data. The outcomes of the analyses highlight the importance of collaborative and inclusive research that bridges regional differences, the interconnection of AI, technology, and sustainability topics, and the major research themes related to sustainability. It further emphasizes the significance of developing hybrid approaches combining AI, data-driven techniques, and expert knowledge for multi-level, multi-dimensional decision-making. Furthermore, the study recognizes the necessity of addressing ethical concerns and ensuring the sustainable use of AI and big data in sustainability research.</p