An Examination of Some Signi cant Approaches to Statistical Deconvolution

We examine statistical approaches to two significant areas of deconvolution - Blind Deconvolution (BD) and Robust Deconvolution (RD) for stochastic stationary signals. For BD, we review some major classical and new methods in a unified framework of nonGaussian signals. The first class of algorithms we look at falls into the class of Minimum Entropy Deconvolution (MED) algorithms. We discuss the similarities between them despite differences in origins and motivations. We give new theoretical results concerning the behaviour and generality of these algorithms and give evidence of scenarios where they may fail. In some cases, we present new modifications to the algorithms to overcome these shortfalls. Following our discussion on the MED algorithms, we next look at a recently proposed BD algorithm based on the correntropy function, a function defined as a combination of the autocorrelation and the entropy functiosn. We examine its BD performance when compared with MED algorithms. We find that the BD carried out via correntropy-matching cannot be straightforwardly interpreted as simultaneous moment-matching due to the breakdown of the correntropy expansion in terms of moments. Other issues such as maximum/minimum phase ambiguity and computational complexity suggest that careful attention is required before establishing the correntropy algorithm as a superior alternative to the existing BD techniques. For the problem of RD, we give a categorisation of different kinds of uncertainties encountered in estimation and discuss techniques required to solve each individual case. Primarily, we tackle the overlooked cases of robustification of deconvolution filters based on estimated blurring response or estimated signal spectrum. We do this by utilising existing methods derived from criteria such as minimax MSE with imposed uncertainty bands and penalised MSE. In particular, we revisit the Modified Wiener Filter (MWF) which offers simplicity and flexibility in giving improved RDs to the standard plug-in Wiener Filter (WF)

Gaussian clarification based on sign function

This paper presents a clarification model in the fuzzy sense based on the Membership Inverse Function (MIF), in Control Theory. It is considered as an identification and requires bounded input and output signals. The sign function and its derivative is regarded as a Gaussian function into the mathematical Membership description. Specifically, the sign function considers the difference between the absolute state variable values and its centroid, rather than remaining in the triangle inequality. Therefore, the theoretical result applied in Matlab® using the reference values as an identification process in an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) (1, 1) model describes the performance. The clarification converging in almost all points of the desired signal depends on the different initial conditions. The convergence obtained by the functional error built by the second probability moment was also used and applied in the same software giving an illustrative description.Este artículo presenta un modelo de clarificación en el sentido difuso basado en la función de membresía inversa como proceso de identificación para un sistema tipo caja negra con Una Entrada y Una Salida (UEUS). La función signo y su derivada para la función gaussiana, permite la descripción matemática del estado a identificar. Específicamente, la función signo aplica la diferencia entre los valores absolutos de la variable de estado y su centroide, en vez de la desigualdad del triángulo. El resultado teórico estuvo aplicado en Matlab®, usando como valores de referencia a los resultados del modelo Auto-Regresivo de Promedios Móviles (ARPM) (1, 1); permitiendo la clarificación y su convergencia en casi todos los puntos a la señal de referencia con diferentes condiciones iniciales entre ellos. La convergencia de forma ilustrativa se describió por el funcional del error a través del segundo momento de probabilidad usando el mismo software

Sensory fusion applied to power system state estimation considering information theory concepts

With the increasing integration of synchronized phasor measurement units (PMU) in power grids appears the necessity to create methods capable to merge the information obtained from different classes of sensors, namely PMU and the conventional sensors already integrated in the SCADA system. Thus, this dissertation proposes a sensory fusion that guarantees the previous requirement. Beyond that, this thesis proposes an application of concepts related with Information theory to the state estimation problem. This application aims to propose a robust state estimator without the necessity of previous treatment of the acquired data

Entropy and predictability of stock market returns

Abstract We examine the predictability of stock market returns by employing a new metric entropy measure of dependence with several desirable properties. We compare our results with a number of traditional measures. The metric entropy is capable of detecting nonlinear dependence within the returns series, and is also capable of detecting nonlinear\a±nity" between the returns and their predictions obtained from various models thereby serving as a measure of out-of-sample goodness-of-¯t or model adequacy. Several models are investigated, including the linear and neural-network models as well as nonparametric and recursive unconditional mean models. We¯nd signi¯cant evidence of small nonlinear unconditional serial dependence within the returns series, but fragile evidence of superior conditional predictability (pro¯t opportunity) when using market-switching versus buy-and-hold strategies

Entropy and predictability of stock market returns

Abstract We examine the predictability of stock market returns by employing a new metric entropy measure of dependence with several desirable properties. We compare our results with a number of traditional measures. The metric entropy is capable of detecting nonlinear dependence within the returns series, and is also capable of detecting nonlinear\a±nity" between the returns and their predictions obtained from various models thereby serving as a measure of out-of-sample goodness-of-¯t or model adequacy. Several models are investigated, including the linear and neural-network models as well as nonparametric and recursive unconditional mean models. We¯nd signi¯cant evidence of small nonlinear unconditional serial dependence within the returns series, but fragile evidence of superior conditional predictability (pro¯t opportunity) when using market-switching versus buy-and-hold strategies

Censoring and Fusion in Non-linear Distributed Tracking Systems with Application to 2D Radar

The objective of this research is to study various methods for censoring state estimate updates generated from radar measurements. The generated 2-D radar data are sent to a fusion center using the J-Divergence metric as the means to assess the quality of the data. Three different distributed sensor network architectures are considered which include different levels of feedback. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Gaussian Particle Filter (GPF) were used in order to test the censoring methods in scenarios which vary in their degrees of non-linearity. A derivation for the direct calculation of the J-Divergence using a particle filter is provided. Results show that state estimate updates can be censored using the J-Divergence as a metric controlled via feedback, with higher J-Divergence thresholds leading to a larger covariance at the fusion center

Models for time series prediction based on neural networks. Case study : GLP sales prediction from ANCAP.

A time series is a sequence of real values that can be considered as observations of a certain system. In this work, we are interested in time series coming from dynamical systems. Such systems can be sometimes described by a set of equations that model the underlying mechanism from where the samples come. However, in several real systems, those equations are unknown, and the only information available is a set of temporal measures, that constitute a time series. On the other hand, by practical reasons it is usually required to have a prediction, v.g. to know the (approximated) value of the series in a future instant t. The goal of this thesis is to solve one of such real-world prediction problem: given historical data related with the lique ed bottled propane gas sales, predict the future gas sales, as accurately as possible. This time series prediction problem is addressed by means of neural networks, using both (dynamic) reconstruction and prediction. The problem of to dynamically reconstruct the original system consists in building a model that captures certain characteristics of it in order to have a correspondence between the long-term behavior of the model and of the system. The networks design process is basically guided by three ingredients. The dimensionality of the problem is explored by our rst ingredient, the Takens-Mañé's theorem. By means of this theorem, the optimal dimension of the (neural) network input can be investigated. Our second ingredient is a strong theorem: neural networks with a single hidden layer are universal approximators. As the third ingredient, we faced the search of the optimal size of the hidden layer by means of genetic algorithms, used to suggest the number of hidden neurons that maximizes a target tness function (related with prediction errors). These algorithms are also used to nd the most in uential networks inputs in some cases. The determination of the hidden layer size is a central (and hard) problem in the determination of the network topology. This thesis includes a state of the art of neural networks design for time series prediction, including related topics such as dynamical systems, universal approximators, gradient-descent searches and variations, as well as meta-heuristics. The survey of the related literature is intended to be extensive, for both printed material and electronic format, in order to have a landscape of the main aspects for the state of the art in time series prediction using neural networks. The material found was sometimes extremely redundant (as in the case of the back-propagation algorithm and its improvements) and scarce in others (memory structures or estimation of the signal subspace dimension in the stochastic case). The surveyed literature includes classical research works ([27], [50], [52]) as well as more recent ones ([79] , [16] or [82]), which pretends to be another contribution of this thesis. Special attention is given to the available software tools for neural networks design and time series processing. After a review of the available software packages, the most promising computational tools for both approaches are discussed. As a result, a whole framework based on mature software tools was set and used. In order to work with such dynamical systems, software intended speci cally for the analysis and processing of time series was employed, and then chaotic series were part of our focus. Since not all randomness is attributable to chaos, in order to characterize the dynamical system generating the time series, an exploration of chaotic-stochastic systems is required, as well as network models to predict a time series associated to one of them. Here we pretend to show how the knowledge of the domain, something extensively treated in the bibliography, can be someway sophisticated (such as the Lyapunov's spectrum for a series or the embedding dimension). In order to model the dynamical system generated by the time series we used the state-space model, so the time series prediction was translated in the prediction of the next system state. This state-space model, together with the delays method (delayed coordinates) have practical importance for the development of this work, speci cally, the design of the input layer in some networks (multi-layer perceptrons - MLPs) and other parameters (taps in the TFLNs). Additionally, the rest of the network components where determined in many cases through procedures traditionally used in neural networks : genetic algorithms. The criteria of model (network) selection are discussed and a trade-o between performance and network complexity is further explored, inspired in the Rissanen's minimum description length and its estimation given by the chosen software. Regarding the employed network models, the network topologies suggested from the literature as adequate for the prediction are used (TLFNs and recurrent networks) together with MLPs (a classic of arti cial neural networks) and networks committees. The e ectiveness of each method is con rmed for the proposed prediction problem. Network committees, where the predictions are a naive convex combination of predictions from individual networks, are also extensively used. The need of criteria to compare the behaviors of the model and of the real system, in the long run, for a dynamic stochastic systems, is presented and two alternatives are commented. The obtained results proof the existence of a solution to the problem of learning of the dependence Input ! Output . We also conjecture that the system is dynamic-stochastic but not chaotic, because we only have a realization of the random process corresponding to the sales. As a non-chaotic system, the mean of the predictions of the sales would improve as the available data increase, although the probability of a prediction with a big error is always non-null due to the randomness present. This solution is found in a constructive and exhaustive way. The exhaustiveness can be deduced from the next ve statements: the design of a neural network requires knowing the input and output dimension,the number of the hidden layers and of the neurons in each of them. the use of the Takens-Mañé's theorem allows to derive the dimension of the input data by theorems such as the Kolmogorov's and Cybenko's ones the use of multi-layer perceptrons with only one hidden layer is justi ed so several of such models were tested the number of neurons in the hidden layer is determined many times heuristically using genetic algorithms a neuron in the output gives the desired prediction As we said, two tasks are carried out: the development of a time series prediction model and the analysis of a feasible model for the dynamic reconstruction of the system. With the best predictive model, obtained by an ensemble of two networks, an acceptable average error was obtained when the week to be predicted is not adjacent to the training set (7.04% for the week 46/2011). We believe that these results are acceptable provided the quantity of information available, and represent an additional validation that neural networks are useful for time series prediction coming from dynamical systems, no matter whether they are stochastic or not. Finally, the results con rmed several already known facts (such as that adding noise to the inputs and outputs of the training values can improve the results; that recurrent networks trained with the back-propagation algorithm don't have the problem of vanishing gradients in short periods and that the use of committees - which can be seen as a very basic of distributed arti cial intelligence - allows to improve signi cantly the predictions).Una serie temporal es una secuencia de valores reales que pueden ser considerados como observaciones de un cierto sistema. En este trabajo, estamos interesados en series temporales provenientes de sistemas dinámicos. Tales sistemas pueden ser algunas veces descriptos por un conjunto de ecuaciones que modelan el mecanismo subyacente que genera las muestras. sin embargo, en muchos sistemas reales, esas ecuaciones son desconocidas, y la única información disponible es un conjunto de medidas en el tiempo, que constituyen la serie temporal. Por otra parte, por razones prácticas es generalmente requerida una predicción, es decir, conocer el valor (aproximado) de la serie en un instante futuro t. La meta de esta tesis es resolver un problema de predicción del mundo real: dados los datos históricos relacionados con las ventas de gas propano licuado, predecir las ventas futuras, tan aproximadamente como sea posible. Este problema de predicción de series temporales es abordado por medio de redes neuronales, tanto para la reconstrucción como para la predicción. El problema de reconstruir dinámicamente el sistema original consiste en construir un modelo que capture ciertas características de él de forma de tener una correspondencia entre el comportamiento a largo plazo del modelo y del sistema. El proceso de diseño de las redes es guiado básicamente por tres ingredientes. La dimensionalidad del problema es explorada por nuestro primer ingrediente, el teorema de Takens-Mañé. Por medio de este teorema, la dimensión óptima de la entrada de la red neuronal puede ser investigada. Nuestro segundo ingrediente es un teorema muy fuerte: las redes neuronales con una sola capa oculta son un aproximador universal. Como tercer ingrediente, encaramos la búsqueda del tamaño oculta de la capa oculta por medio de algoritmos genéticos, usados para sugerir el número de neuronas ocultas que maximizan una función objetivo (relacionada con los errores de predicción). Estos algoritmos se usan además para encontrar las entradas a la red que influyen más en la salida en algunos casos. La determinación del tamaño de la capa oculta es un problema central (y duro) en la determinación de la topología de la red. Esta tesis incluye un estado del arte del diseño de redes neuronales para la predicción de series temporales, incluyendo tópicos relacionados tales como sistemas dinámicos, aproximadores universales, búsquedas basadas en el gradiente y sus variaciones, así como meta-heurísticas. El relevamiento de la literatura relacionada busca ser extenso, para tanto el material impreso como para el que esta en formato electrónico, de forma de tener un panorama de los principales aspectos del estado del arte en la predicción de series temporales usando redes neuronales. El material hallado fue algunas veces extremadamente redundante (como en el caso del algoritmo de retropropagación y sus mejoras) y escaso en otros (estructuras de memoria o estimación de la dimensión del sub-espacio de señal en el caso estocástico). La literatura consultada incluye trabajos de investigación clásicos ( ([27], [50], [52])' así como de los más reciente ([79] , [16] or [82]). Se presta especial atención a las herramientas de software disponibles para el diseño de redes neuronales y el procesamiento de series temporales. Luego de una revisión de los paquetes de software disponibles, las herramientas más promisiorias para ambas tareas son discutidas. Como resultado, un entorno de trabajo completo basado en herramientas de software maduras fue definido y usado. Para trabajar con los mencionados sistemas dinámicos, software especializado en el análisis y proceso de las series temporales fue empleado, y entonces las series caóticas fueron estudiadas. Ya que no toda la aleatoriedad es atribuible al caos, para caracterizar al sistema dinámico que genera la serie temporal se requiere una exploración de los sistemas caóticos-estocásticos, así como de los modelos de red para predecir una serie temporal asociada a uno de ellos. Aquí se pretende mostrar cómo el conocimiento del dominio, algo extensamente tratado en la literatura, puede ser de alguna manera sofisticado (tal como el espectro de Lyapunov de la serie o la dimensión del sub-espacio de señal). Para modelar el sistema dinámico generado por la serie temporal se usa el modelo de espacio de estados, por lo que la predicción de la serie temporal es traducida en la predicción del siguiente estado del sistema. Este modelo de espacio de estados, junto con el método de los delays (coordenadas demoradas) tiene importancia práctica en el desarrollo de este trabajo, específicamente, en el diseño de la capa de entrada en algunas redes (los perceptrones multicapa) y otros parámetros (los taps de las redes TLFN). Adicionalmente, el resto de los componentes de la red con determinados en varios casos a través de procedimientos tradicionalmente usados en las redes neuronales: los algoritmos genéticos. Los criterios para la selección de modelo (red) son discutidos y un balance entre performance y complejidad de la red es explorado luego, inspirado en el minimum description length de Rissanen y su estimación dada por el software elegido. Con respecto a los modelos de red empleados, las topologóas de sugeridas en la literatura como adecuadas para la predicción son usadas (TLFNs y redes recurrentes) junto con perceptrones multicapa (un clásico de las redes neuronales) y comités de redes. La efectividad de cada método es confirmada por el problema de predicción propuesto. Los comités de redes, donde las predicciones son una combinación convexa de las predicciones dadas por las redes individuales, son también usados extensamente. La necesidad de criterios para comparar el comportamiento del modelo con el del sistema real, a largo plazo, para un sistema dinámico estocástico, es presentada y dos alternativas son comentadas. Los resultados obtenidos prueban la existencia de una solución al problema del aprendizaje de la dependencia Entrada - Salida . Conjeturamos además que el sistema generador de serie de las ventas es dinámico-estocástico pero no caótico, ya que sólo tenemos una realización del proceso aleatorio correspondiente a las ventas. Al ser un sistema no caótico, la media de las predicciones de las ventas debería mejorar a medida que los datos disponibles aumentan, aunque la probabilidad de una predicción con un gran error es siempre no nula debido a la aleatoriedad presente. Esta solución es encontrada en una forma constructiva y exhaustiva. La exhaustividad puede deducirse de las siguiente cinco afirmaciones : el diseño de una red neuronal requiere conocer la dimensión de la entrada y de la salida, el número de capas ocultas y las neuronas en cada una de ellas el uso del teorema de takens-Mañé permite derivar la dimensión de la entrada por teoremas tales como los de Kolmogorov y Cybenko el uso de perceptrones con solo una capa oculta es justificado, por lo que varios de tales modelos son probados el número de neuronas en la capa oculta es determinada varias veces heurísticamente a través de algoritmos genéticos una sola neurona de salida da la predicción deseada. Como se dijo, dos tareas son llevadas a cabo: el desarrollo de un modelo para la predicción de la serie temporal y el análisis de un modelo factible para la reconstrucción dinámica del sistema. Con el mejor modelo predictivo, obtenido por el comité de dos redes se logró obtener un error aceptable en la predicción de una semana no contigua al conjunto de entrenamiento (7.04% para la semana 46/2011). Creemos que este es un resultado aceptable dada la cantidad de información disponible y representa una validación adicional de que las redes neuronales son útiles para la predicción de series temporales provenientes de sistemas dinámicos, sin importar si son estocásticos o no. Finalmente, los resultados experimentales confirmaron algunos hechos ya conocidos (tales como que agregar ruido a los datos de entrada y de salida de los valores de entrenamiento puede mejorar los resultados: que las redes recurrentes entrenadas con el algoritmo de retropropagación no presentan el problema del gradiente evanescente en periodos cortos y que el uso de de comités - que puede ser visto como una forma muy básica de inteligencia artificial distribuida - permite mejorar significativamente las predicciones)

A generalised feedforward neural network architecture and its applications to classification and regression

Shunting inhibition is a powerful computational mechanism that plays an important role in sensory neural information processing systems. It has been extensively used to model some important visual and cognitive functions. It equips neurons with a gain control mechanism that allows them to operate as adaptive non-linear filters. Shunting Inhibitory Artificial Neural Networks (SIANNs) are biologically inspired networks where the basic synaptic computations are based on shunting inhibition. SIANNs were designed to solve difficult machine learning problems by exploiting the inherent non-linearity mediated by shunting inhibition. The aim was to develop powerful, trainable networks, with non-linear decision surfaces, for classification and non-linear regression tasks. This work enhances and extends the original SIANN architecture to a more general form called the Generalised Feedforward Neural Network (GFNN) architecture, which contains as subsets both SIANN and the conventional Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architectures. The original SIANN structure has the number of shunting neurons in the hidden layers equal to the number of inputs, due to the neuron model that is used having a single direct excitatory input. This was found to be too restrictive, often resulting in inadequately small or inordinately large network structures