Automata-based adaptive behavior for economic modeling using game theory

In this paper, we deal with some specific domains of applications to game theory. This is one of the major class of models in the new approaches of modelling in the economic domain. For that, we use genetic automata which allow to buid adaptive strategies for the players. We explain how the automata-based formalism proposed - matrix representation of automata with multiplicities - allows to define a semi-distance between the strategy behaviors. With that tools, we are able to generate an automatic processus to compute emergent systems of entities whose behaviors are represented by these genetic automata

Automata-based Adaptive Behavior for Economical Modelling Using Game Theory

In this chapter, we deal with some specific domains of applications to game theory. This is one of the major class of models in the new approaches of modelling in the economic domain. For that, we use genetic automata which allow to build adaptive strategies for the players. We explain how the automata-based formalism proposed - matrix representation of automata with multiplicities - allows to define semi-distance between the strategy behaviors. With that tools, we are able to generate an automatic processus to compute emergent systems of entities whose behaviors are represented by these genetic automata

Probabilistic Model-Based Safety Analysis

Model-based safety analysis approaches aim at finding critical failure combinations by analysis of models of the whole system (i.e. software, hardware, failure modes and environment). The advantage of these methods compared to traditional approaches is that the analysis of the whole system gives more precise results. Only few model-based approaches have been applied to answer quantitative questions in safety analysis, often limited to analysis of specific failure propagation models, limited types of failure modes or without system dynamics and behavior, as direct quantitative analysis is uses large amounts of computing resources. New achievements in the domain of (probabilistic) model-checking now allow for overcoming this problem. This paper shows how functional models based on synchronous parallel semantics, which can be used for system design, implementation and qualitative safety analysis, can be directly re-used for (model-based) quantitative safety analysis. Accurate modeling of different types of probabilistic failure occurrence is shown as well as accurate interpretation of the results of the analysis. This allows for reliable and expressive assessment of the safety of a system in early design stages

Robust Control of Uncertain Markov Decision Processes with Temporal Logic Specifications

We present a method for designing robust controllers for dynamical systems with linear temporal logic specifications. We abstract the original system by a finite Markov Decision Process (MDP) that has transition probabilities in a specified uncertainty set. A robust control policy for the MDP is generated that maximizes the worst-case probability of satisfying the specification over all transition probabilities in the uncertainty set. To do this, we use a procedure from probabilistic model checking to combine the system model with an automaton representing the specification. This new MDP is then transformed into an equivalent form that satisfies assumptions for stochastic shortest path dynamic programming. A robust version of dynamic programming allows us to solve for a $\epsilon$-suboptimal robust control policy with time complexity $O(\log 1/\epsilon)$ times that for the non-robust case. We then implement this control policy on the original dynamical system

An Individual-based Probabilistic Model for Fish Stock Simulation

We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea) behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA), a new formalism that is introduced in the paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.Comment: In Proceedings AMCA-POP 2010, arXiv:1008.314

Certified Reinforcement Learning with Logic Guidance

This paper proposes the first model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework to synthesise policies for unknown, and continuous-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), such that a given linear temporal property is satisfied. We convert the given property into a Limit Deterministic Buchi Automaton (LDBA), namely a finite-state machine expressing the property. Exploiting the structure of the LDBA, we shape a synchronous reward function on-the-fly, so that an RL algorithm can synthesise a policy resulting in traces that probabilistically satisfy the linear temporal property. This probability (certificate) is also calculated in parallel with policy learning when the state space of the MDP is finite: as such, the RL algorithm produces a policy that is certified with respect to the property. Under the assumption of finite state space, theoretical guarantees are provided on the convergence of the RL algorithm to an optimal policy, maximising the above probability. We also show that our method produces ''best available'' control policies when the logical property cannot be satisfied. In the general case of a continuous state space, we propose a neural network architecture for RL and we empirically show that the algorithm finds satisfying policies, if there exist such policies. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated via a set of numerical examples and benchmarks, where we observe an improvement of one order of magnitude in the number of iterations required for the policy synthesis, compared to existing approaches whenever available.Comment: This article draws from arXiv:1801.08099, arXiv:1809.0782