We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea)
behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic
Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA), a new formalism that is introduced in the
paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A
given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable
translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to
simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental
scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent
implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities
and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to
represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the
results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North
Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is
presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.Comment: In Proceedings AMCA-POP 2010, arXiv:1008.314