EmC-ICDSST 2019: 5th International Conference on Decision Support System Technology - ICDSST 2019 & EURO Mini Conference 2019 on "Decision Support Systems: Main Developments & Future Trends"

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Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research

The ever greater role given to public participation by laws and regulations, in particular in the field of environmental management calls for new operational methods and tools for managers and practitioners. This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The potential synergies of combining SM, PP and DA into an integrated methodological framework are identified and a methodological proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support), which aims at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is formalised in NetSyMoD as a sequence of six main phases: (i) Actors analysis; (ii) Problem analysis; (iii) Creative System Modelling; (iv) DSS design; (v) Analysis of Options; and (vi) Action taking and monitoring. Several variants of the NetSyMoD approach have been adapted to different contexts such as integrated water resources management and coastal management, and, recently it has been applied in climate change research projects. Experience has shown that NetSyMoD may be a useful framework for skilled professionals, for guiding the P/DMP, and providing practical solutions to problems encountered in the different phases of the decision/policy making process, in particular when future scenarios or projections have to be considered, such as in the case of developing and selecting adaptation policies. The various applications of NetSyMoD share the same approach for problem analysis and communication within the group of selected actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through a Decision Support System (DSS) software.Modelling, Public Participation, Natural Resource Management, Policy, Decision-Making, Governance, DSS

A holistic multi-methodology for sustainable renovation

A review of the barriers for building renovation has revealed a lack of methodologies, which can promote sustainability objectives and assist various stakeholders during the design stage of building renovation/retrofitting projects. The purpose of this paper is to develop a Holistic Multi-methodology for Sustainable Renovation, which aims to deal with complexity of renovation projects. It provides a framework through which to involve the different stakeholders in the design process to improve group learning and group decision-making, and hence make the building renovation design process more robust and efficient. Therefore, the paper discusses the essence of multifaceted barriers in building renovation regarding cultural changes and technological/physical changes. The outcome is a proposal for a multi-methodology framework, which is developed by introducing, evaluating and mixing methods from Soft Systems Methodologies (SSM) with Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). The potential of applying the proposed methodology in renovation projects is demonstrated through a case study

Decision support for firm performance by real options analytics

This paper develops a real options decision support tool for raising the performance of the firm. It shows how entrepreneurs can use our intuitive tool quickly to assess the nature and type of action required for improved performance. This exploits our estimated econometric relationship between precipitators of entrepreneurial opportunities, time until exercise, and firm performance. Our 3D chromaticity plots show how staging investments, investment time, and firm performance support entrepreneurial decisions to embed, or to expedite, investments. Speedy entrepreneurial action is securely supported with this tool, without expertise in econometric estimation or in formulae for real options valuation

Advances in Methodology and Applications of Decision Support Systems

These Proceedings are composed of a selection of papers of the Workshop on Advances in Methodology and Applications of Decision Support Systems, organized by the System and Decision Sciences (SDS) Program of IIASA and the Japan Institute of Systems Research (JISR). The workshop was held at IIASA on August 20-22, 1990. The Methodology of Decision Analysis (MDA) Project of the SDS Program focuses on a system-analytical approach to decision support and is devoted to developing methodology, software and applications of decision support systems concentrated primarily around interactive systems for data analysis, interpretation and multiobjective decisionmaking, including uncertainty analysis and group decision making situations in both their cooperative and noncooperative aspects. The objectives of the research on decision support systems (DSS) performed in cooperation with the MDA Project are to: compare various approaches to decision support systems; advance theory and methodology of decision support; convert existing theories and methodologies into usable (simple to use, user-friendly and robust) tools that could easily be used in solving real-life problems. A principal characteristic of decision support systems is that they must be tuned to specific decision situations, to complex real-life characteristics of every application. Even if the theory and methodology of decision support is quite advanced, every application might provide impulses for further theoretical and methodological advances. Therefore the principle underlying this project is that theoretical and methodological research should be strongly connected to the implementation and applications of its results to sufficiently complicated, real-life examples. This approach results in obtaining really applicable working tools for decision support. The papers for this Proceedings have been selected according to the above summarized framework of the research activities. Therefore, the papers deal both with theoretical and methodological problems and with real-life applications

An Integrated Multi-Criteria System to Assess Sustainable Energy Options: An Application of the Promethee Method

The planning and appraisal of sustainable energy projects involve rather complex tasks. This is due to the fact that the decision making process is the closing link in the process of analysing and handling different types of information: environmental, technical economic and social. Such information can play a strategic role in steering the decision maker towards one choice instead of another. Some of these variables (technical and economic) can be handled fairly easily by numerical models whilst others, particularly ones relating to environmental impacts, may only be adjudicated qualitatively (subjective or not). In many cases therefore, traditional evaluation methods such as cost-benefit analysis and the main economic and financial indicators (NPV, ROI, IRR etc.) are unable to deal with all the components involved in an environmentally valid energy project. Multi-criteria methods provide a flexible tool that is able to handle and bring together a wide range of variables appraised in different ways and thus offer valid assistance to the decision maker in mapping out the problem. This paper sets out the application of a multi-criteria method (PROMETHEE developed by J.P. Brans et al. 1986) to a real life case that is in tune with the objectives of sustainable development.Renewable energy, Multicriteria, Sustainable devolopment

Understanding and supporting pricing decisions using multicriteria decision analysis: an application to antique silver in South Africa

This dissertation presents an application of multicriteria decision analysis to understand and support pricing decisions in fields where goods are unique and described by their characteristics. The specific application area of this research is antique silver objects, where a complete iteration of the multicritia decision process is performed. This includes two problem structurings using SODA which provide rich detail into this application area. Multi-attribute additive models are constructed, with attribute partial value functions elicited using different methods: directly (bisection methods), indirectly (MACBETH and linear interpolation) and with discrete choice experiments. The applicability and advantages of each method is discussed. Additionally, an open source R package to implement the design of discrete choice experiments is created. The multi-attribute models provide key insights into decision maker's reasoning for price; and contrasting different decision maker's models explains the market. A risk adverse relationship between multicriteria model score and price is characterised and various inverse utility functions investigated. Two decision support systems are fully developed to address the needs of Cape silver decision makers in South Africa

ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ МЕТОДОВ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТУАЛЬНОЙ ПОДДЕРЖКИ В СФЕРЕ УПРАВЛЕНИЯ ДОСТУПНОСТЬЮ СОЦИАЛЬНОЙ ИНФРАСТРУКТУРЫ ДЛЯ МАЛОМОБИЛЬНЫХ ГРУПП НАСЕЛЕНИЯ

Modern society significant part is made up of People with Limited Mobility (PLM). This category of citizens is limited in movement and experiences problems of interaction with social infrastructure: first of all, these are people with disabilities (disabled people), who, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), make up more than 15% of the world's population, as well as people moving, for example, from baggage or stroller. Researchers identify three main problems in the interaction of PLM with social infrastructure: the first is related to the physical barriers of social infrastructure facilities (SIF) the second is the inaccessibility of information about SIF, and the third includes a number of social problems caused by the attitude towards PLM within society. Efficiency improving in the field of urban mana¬gement and ensuring the information availability of SIF for PLM is possible through the use of geographic information technologies, electronic maps and digital city information systems, as well as specialized decision support systems. The purpose of research is to solve an urgent scientific and technical problem of implementing a support system for making informed management decisions in the field of ensuring the availability of information systems for PLM, as well as developing a methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the DSS. Materials and methods. Control theory for the development of an intelligent decision support method, software and hardware implementation tools, as well as an analytical, computational and graphical method for evaluating the effectiveness of development. Results. A DSS has been developed in the field of managing the availability of SIF for PLM. An assessment of the DSS functioning quality and efficiency was made, the analytical and graphical results of the efficiency assessment were reflected. Conclusion. The paper describes a methodology for the development of a DSS for managing the accessibility of SIF for PLM, including the introduction into the existing urban management system and evaluating the effectiveness of intellectual support methods in managing the accessibility of social infrastructure for PLM.Значительную часть современного общества составляют маломобильные группы населения (далее МГН). Данная категория граждан ограничена в перемещении и испытывает проблемы взаимодействия с социальной инфраструктурой: в первую очередь это лица с ограниченными возможностями (инвалиды), составляющие по данным Всемирной организации здравоохранения (ВОЗ) более 15 % населения мира, а также лица, перемещающиеся, например, с багажом или коляской. Исследователи выделяют три основные проблемы взаимодействия МГН с социальной инфраструктурой: первая связана с физическими барьерами объектов социальной инфраструктуры (далее ОСИ), вторая заключается в недоступности информации об ОСИ, а третья включает ряд социальных проблем, вызванных отношением к МГН внутри общества. Эффективность решений в области обеспечения информационной доступности ОСИ для МГН может быть повышена за счет использования электронных карт городских территорий и ОСИ (цифровой город). Применение электронных карт в задачах анализа геопространственных данных возможно реализовать за счет проведения исследований и разработок в области геоинформационных технологий. Целью исследования является решение актуальной научно-технической проблемы реализации системы поддержки принятия обоснованных управленческих решений в области обеспечения доступности ОСИ для МГН, а также разработка методики оценки эффективности функционирования системы поддержки принятия решений. Материалы и методы: теория управления для разработки метода интеллектуальной поддержки принятия решений, программно-технические средства реализации, а также аналитический, вычислительный и графический метод оценки эффективности разработки. Результаты. Разработана СППР в области управления доступностью ОСИ для МГН. Произведена оценка качества и эффективности функционирования СППР, отражены аналитические и графическое результаты оценки эффективности. Заключение. В работе описана методика разработки СППР управления доступностью ОСИ для МГН, включая внедрение в существующую систему управления городским хозяйством и оценку эффективности методов интеллектуальной поддержки при управлении доступностью социальной инфраструктуры для МГН

Decision support systems for large dam planning and operation in Africa

Decision support systems/ Dams/ Planning/ Operations/ Social impact/ Environmental effects

Energy Efficiency in Historic Buildings

Architectural heritage has been considered as one of highest peaks of Italian culture and its universities as a point of excellence in conservation and restoration. However, they have not been able to fully address contemporary challenges, responding to demands of energy saving and raising of comfort levels. The achievement of NZEB standards in historic buildings, especially those protected by the Ministry of Cultural Heritage, is still considered taboo \u2013 if not a dangerous technical drift. An ongoing project on an 18th Century small listed building is animated by a different spirit; here the traditional conservative approach has been integrated with specialists in energy efficiency. The proposed contribution aims to present an example striving to become indicative of best practice, while highlighting in particular the conflicts concerning material conservation, enhancement of cultural significance and needs for new use, as well as the possibility to overcome some cultural barriers through creativity and innovation