EmC-ICDSST 2019: 5th International Conference on Decision Support System Technology - ICDSST 2019 & EURO Mini Conference 2019 on "Decision Support Systems: Main Developments & Future Trends"

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Combining decision support approaches for optimizing the selection of bundles of ecosystem services

This study examines the potential of combining decision support approaches to identify optimal bundles of ecosystem services in a framework characterized by multiple decision-makers. A forested landscape, Zona de Intervenção Florestal of Paiva and Entre-Douro and Sousa (ZIF_VS) in Portugal, is used to test and demonstrate this potential. The landscape extends over 14,388 ha, representing 1976 stands. The property is fragmented into 376 holdings. The overall analysis was performed in three steps. First, we selected six alternative solutions (A to F) in a Pareto frontier generated by a multiple-criteria method within a web-based decision support system (SADfLOR) for subsequent analysis. Next, an aspatial strategic multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was performed with the Criterium DecisionPlus (CDP) component of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system to assess the aggregate performance of solutions A to F for the entire forested landscape with respect to their utility for delivery of ecosystem services. For the CDP analysis, SADfLOR data inputs were grouped into two sets of primary criteria: Wood Harvested and Other Ecosystem Services. Finally, a spatial logic-based assessment of solutions A to F for individual stands of the study area was performed with the NetWeaver component of EMDS. The NetWeaver model was structurally and computationally equivalent to the CDP model, but the key NetWeaver metric is a measure of the strength of evidence that solutions for specific stands were optimal for the unit. We conclude with a discussion of how the combination of decision support approaches encapsulated in the two systems could be further automated in order to rank several efficient solutions in a Pareto frontier and generate a consensual solutioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Participatory Modelling and Decision Support for Natural Resources Management in Climate Change Research

The ever greater role given to public participation by laws and regulations, in particular in the field of environmental management calls for new operational methods and tools for managers and practitioners. This paper analyses the potentials and the critical limitations of current approaches in the fields of simulation modelling (SM), public participation (PP) and decision analysis (DA), for natural resources management within the context of climate change research. The potential synergies of combining SM, PP and DA into an integrated methodological framework are identified and a methodological proposal is presented, called NetSyMoD (Network Analysis – Creative System Modelling – Decision Support), which aims at facilitating the involvement of stakeholders or experts in policy - or decision-making processes (P/DMP). A generic P/DMP is formalised in NetSyMoD as a sequence of six main phases: (i) Actors analysis; (ii) Problem analysis; (iii) Creative System Modelling; (iv) DSS design; (v) Analysis of Options; and (vi) Action taking and monitoring. Several variants of the NetSyMoD approach have been adapted to different contexts such as integrated water resources management and coastal management, and, recently it has been applied in climate change research projects. Experience has shown that NetSyMoD may be a useful framework for skilled professionals, for guiding the P/DMP, and providing practical solutions to problems encountered in the different phases of the decision/policy making process, in particular when future scenarios or projections have to be considered, such as in the case of developing and selecting adaptation policies. The various applications of NetSyMoD share the same approach for problem analysis and communication within the group of selected actors, based upon the use of creative thinking techniques, the formalisation of human-environment relationships through the DPSIR framework, and the use of multi-criteria analysis through a Decision Support System (DSS) software.Modelling, Public Participation, Natural Resource Management, Policy, Decision-Making, Governance, DSS

An Integrated Multi-Criteria System to Assess Sustainable Energy Options: An Application of the Promethee Method

The planning and appraisal of sustainable energy projects involve rather complex tasks. This is due to the fact that the decision making process is the closing link in the process of analysing and handling different types of information: environmental, technical economic and social. Such information can play a strategic role in steering the decision maker towards one choice instead of another. Some of these variables (technical and economic) can be handled fairly easily by numerical models whilst others, particularly ones relating to environmental impacts, may only be adjudicated qualitatively (subjective or not). In many cases therefore, traditional evaluation methods such as cost-benefit analysis and the main economic and financial indicators (NPV, ROI, IRR etc.) are unable to deal with all the components involved in an environmentally valid energy project. Multi-criteria methods provide a flexible tool that is able to handle and bring together a wide range of variables appraised in different ways and thus offer valid assistance to the decision maker in mapping out the problem. This paper sets out the application of a multi-criteria method (PROMETHEE developed by J.P. Brans et al. 1986) to a real life case that is in tune with the objectives of sustainable development.Renewable energy, Multicriteria, Sustainable devolopment

Understanding and supporting pricing decisions using multicriteria decision analysis: an application to antique silver in South Africa

This dissertation presents an application of multicriteria decision analysis to understand and support pricing decisions in fields where goods are unique and described by their characteristics. The specific application area of this research is antique silver objects, where a complete iteration of the multicritia decision process is performed. This includes two problem structurings using SODA which provide rich detail into this application area. Multi-attribute additive models are constructed, with attribute partial value functions elicited using different methods: directly (bisection methods), indirectly (MACBETH and linear interpolation) and with discrete choice experiments. The applicability and advantages of each method is discussed. Additionally, an open source R package to implement the design of discrete choice experiments is created. The multi-attribute models provide key insights into decision maker's reasoning for price; and contrasting different decision maker's models explains the market. A risk adverse relationship between multicriteria model score and price is characterised and various inverse utility functions investigated. Two decision support systems are fully developed to address the needs of Cape silver decision makers in South Africa

Decision support for firm performance by real options analytics

This paper develops a real options decision support tool for raising the performance of the firm. It shows how entrepreneurs can use our intuitive tool quickly to assess the nature and type of action required for improved performance. This exploits our estimated econometric relationship between precipitators of entrepreneurial opportunities, time until exercise, and firm performance. Our 3D chromaticity plots show how staging investments, investment time, and firm performance support entrepreneurial decisions to embed, or to expedite, investments. Speedy entrepreneurial action is securely supported with this tool, without expertise in econometric estimation or in formulae for real options valuation

Computer Aided Decision Support for Planning and Management of Research and Development

The aim of the paper is to present the Decision Support System which has been designed to support the management of research and development activities on the national level. The information processing capabilities of such system are discussed as well as possible methodological frameworks including implementation related issues for providing decision support are presented by the authors

Decision support systems for large dam planning and operation in Africa

Decision support systems/ Dams/ Planning/ Operations/ Social impact/ Environmental effects