Robust EM algorithm for model-based curve clustering

Model-based clustering approaches concern the paradigm of exploratory data analysis relying on the finite mixture model to automatically find a latent structure governing observed data. They are one of the most popular and successful approaches in cluster analysis. The mixture density estimation is generally performed by maximizing the observed-data log-likelihood by using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. However, it is well-known that the EM algorithm initialization is crucial. In addition, the standard EM algorithm requires the number of clusters to be known a priori. Some solutions have been provided in [31, 12] for model-based clustering with Gaussian mixture models for multivariate data. In this paper we focus on model-based curve clustering approaches, when the data are curves rather than vectorial data, based on regression mixtures. We propose a new robust EM algorithm for clustering curves. We extend the model-based clustering approach presented in [31] for Gaussian mixture models, to the case of curve clustering by regression mixtures, including polynomial regression mixtures as well as spline or B-spline regressions mixtures. Our approach both handles the problem of initialization and the one of choosing the optimal number of clusters as the EM learning proceeds, rather than in a two-fold scheme. This is achieved by optimizing a penalized log-likelihood criterion. A simulation study confirms the potential benefit of the proposed algorithm in terms of robustness regarding initialization and funding the actual number of clusters.Comment: In Proceedings of the 2013 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN), 2013, Dallas, TX, US

Local Exchangeability

Exchangeability---in which the distribution of an infinite sequence is invariant to reorderings of its elements---implies the existence of a simple conditional independence structure that may be leveraged in the design of probabilistic models, efficient inference algorithms, and randomization-based testing procedures. In practice, however, this assumption is too strong an idealization; the distribution typically fails to be exactly invariant to permutations and de Finetti's representation theory does not apply. Thus there is the need for a distributional assumption that is both weak enough to hold in practice, and strong enough to guarantee a useful underlying representation. We introduce a relaxed notion of local exchangeability---where swapping data associated with nearby covariates causes a bounded change in the distribution. We prove that locally exchangeable processes correspond to independent observations from an underlying measure-valued stochastic process. We thereby show that de Finetti's theorem is robust to perturbation and provide further justification for the Bayesian modelling approach. Using this probabilistic result, we develop three novel statistical procedures for (1) estimating the underlying process via local empirical measures, (2) testing via local randomization, and (3) estimating the canonical premetric of local exchangeability. These three procedures extend the applicability of previous exchangeability-based methods without sacrificing rigorous statistical guarantees. The paper concludes with examples of popular statistical models that exhibit local exchangeability

Robust Temporally Coherent Laplacian Protrusion Segmentation of 3D Articulated Bodies

In motion analysis and understanding it is important to be able to fit a suitable model or structure to the temporal series of observed data, in order to describe motion patterns in a compact way, and to discriminate between them. In an unsupervised context, i.e., no prior model of the moving object(s) is available, such a structure has to be learned from the data in a bottom-up fashion. In recent times, volumetric approaches in which the motion is captured from a number of cameras and a voxel-set representation of the body is built from the camera views, have gained ground due to attractive features such as inherent view-invariance and robustness to occlusions. Automatic, unsupervised segmentation of moving bodies along entire sequences, in a temporally-coherent and robust way, has the potential to provide a means of constructing a bottom-up model of the moving body, and track motion cues that may be later exploited for motion classification. Spectral methods such as locally linear embedding (LLE) can be useful in this context, as they preserve "protrusions", i.e., high-curvature regions of the 3D volume, of articulated shapes, while improving their separation in a lower dimensional space, making them in this way easier to cluster. In this paper we therefore propose a spectral approach to unsupervised and temporally-coherent body-protrusion segmentation along time sequences. Volumetric shapes are clustered in an embedding space, clusters are propagated in time to ensure coherence, and merged or split to accommodate changes in the body's topology. Experiments on both synthetic and real sequences of dense voxel-set data are shown. This supports the ability of the proposed method to cluster body-parts consistently over time in a totally unsupervised fashion, its robustness to sampling density and shape quality, and its potential for bottom-up model constructionComment: 31 pages, 26 figure

zCap: a zero configuration adaptive paging and mobility management mechanism

Today, cellular networks rely on fixed collections of cells (tracking areas) for user equipment localisation. Locating users within these areas involves broadcast search (paging), which consumes radio bandwidth but reduces the user equipment signalling required for mobility management. Tracking areas are today manually configured, hard to adapt to local mobility and influence the load on several key resources in the network. We propose a decentralised and self-adaptive approach to mobility management based on a probabilistic model of local mobility. By estimating the parameters of this model from observations of user mobility collected online, we obtain a dynamic model from which we construct local neighbourhoods of cells where we are most likely to locate user equipment. We propose to replace the static tracking areas of current systems with neighbourhoods local to each cell. The model is also used to derive a multi-phase paging scheme, where the division of neighbourhood cells into consecutive phases balances response times and paging cost. The complete mechanism requires no manual tracking area configuration and performs localisation efficiently in terms of signalling and response times. Detailed simulations show that significant potential gains in localisation effi- ciency are possible while eliminating manual configuration of mobility management parameters. Variants of the proposal can be implemented within current (LTE) standards

Bayesian stochastic blockmodeling

This chapter provides a self-contained introduction to the use of Bayesian inference to extract large-scale modular structures from network data, based on the stochastic blockmodel (SBM), as well as its degree-corrected and overlapping generalizations. We focus on nonparametric formulations that allow their inference in a manner that prevents overfitting, and enables model selection. We discuss aspects of the choice of priors, in particular how to avoid underfitting via increased Bayesian hierarchies, and we contrast the task of sampling network partitions from the posterior distribution with finding the single point estimate that maximizes it, while describing efficient algorithms to perform either one. We also show how inferring the SBM can be used to predict missing and spurious links, and shed light on the fundamental limitations of the detectability of modular structures in networks.Comment: 44 pages, 16 figures. Code is freely available as part of graph-tool at https://graph-tool.skewed.de . See also the HOWTO at https://graph-tool.skewed.de/static/doc/demos/inference/inference.htm