Computational intelligence approaches for energy load forecasting in smart energy management grids: state of the art, future challenges, and research directions and Research Directions

Energy management systems are designed to monitor, optimize, and control the smart grid energy market. Demand-side management, considered as an essential part of the energy management system, can enable utility market operators to make better management decisions for energy trading between consumers and the operator. In this system, a priori knowledge about the energy load pattern can help reshape the load and cut the energy demand curve, thus allowing a better management and distribution of the energy in smart grid energy systems. Designing a computationally intelligent load forecasting (ILF) system is often a primary goal of energy demand management. This study explores the state of the art of computationally intelligent (i.e., machine learning) methods that are applied in load forecasting in terms of their classification and evaluation for sustainable operation of the overall energy management system. More than 50 research papers related to the subject identified in existing literature are classified into two categories: namely the single and the hybrid computational intelligence (CI)-based load forecasting technique. The advantages and disadvantages of each individual techniques also discussed to encapsulate them into the perspective into the energy management research. The identified methods have been further investigated by a qualitative analysis based on the accuracy of the prediction, which confirms the dominance of hybrid forecasting methods, which are often applied as metaheurstic algorithms considering the different optimization techniques over single model approaches. Based on extensive surveys, the review paper predicts a continuous future expansion of such literature on different CI approaches and their optimizations with both heuristic and metaheuristic methods used for energy load forecasting and their potential utilization in real-time smart energy management grids to address future challenges in energy demand managemen

Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Long-Term Load Forecasting Considering Volatility Using Multiplicative Error Model

Long-term load forecasting plays a vital role for utilities and planners in terms of grid development and expansion planning. An overestimate of long-term electricity load will result in substantial wasted investment in the construction of excess power facilities, while an underestimate of future load will result in insufficient generation and unmet demand. This paper presents first-of-its-kind approach to use multiplicative error model (MEM) in forecasting load for long-term horizon. MEM originates from the structure of autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model where conditional variance is dynamically parameterized and it multiplicatively interacts with an innovation term of time-series. Historical load data, accessed from a U.S. regional transmission operator, and recession data for years 1993-2016 is used in this study. The superiority of considering volatility is proven by out-of-sample forecast results as well as directional accuracy during the great economic recession of 2008. To incorporate future volatility, backtesting of MEM model is performed. Two performance indicators used to assess the proposed model are mean absolute percentage error (for both in-sample model fit and out-of-sample forecasts) and directional accuracy.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

Fractional ARIMA with an improved cuckoo search optimization for the efficient Short-term power load forecasting

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Rolling bearing fault diagnosis by a novel fruit fly optimization algorithm optimized support vector machine

Based on the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of rotating machinery vibration, a FOA-SVM model is established by Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA) and combining the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to realize the optimization of the SVM parameters. The mechanism of this model is imitating the foraging behavior of fruit flies. The smell concentration judgment value of the forage is used as the parameter to construct a proper fitness function in order to search the optimal SVM parameters. The FOA algorithm is proved to be convergence fast and accurately with global searching ability by optimizing the analog signal of rotating machinery fault. In order to improve the classification accuracy rate, built FOA-SVM model, and then to extract feature value for training and testing, so that it can recognize the fault rolling bearing and the degree of it. Analyze and diagnose actual signals, it prove the validity of the method, and the improved method had a good prospect for its application in rolling bearing diagnosis

An Overview of Forecasting Methods for Monthly Electricity Consumption

Mid-term electricity consumption forecasting is analysed in this paper. Forecasting of electricity consumption is regression problem that can be defined as using previous consumption of an individual or a group with the goal of calculation of future consumption using some mathematical or statistical approach. The purpose of this prediction is multi beneficial to the stakeholders in the energy community, since this information can affect production, sales and supply. The Different methods are considered with the main goal to determine the best forecasting model. Considered methods include Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average models, state-space models and exponential smoothing, and machine learning methods including neural networks. An additional objective of the conducted research was to determine if modern methods like machine learning are equally precise in forecasting mid-term electricity consumption when compared to traditional time series methods. The performances of forecasting models are evaluated on the monthly electricity consumption data obtained using real billing software owned by the Distribution System Operator in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mean absolute percentage error is selected as a measure of prediction accuracy of forecasting methods. Every forecasting method is implemented and tested using the R language, while data is collected from Data Warehouse in the form of total monthly consumption. The efficiency of presented solution will also be discussed after presentation of the results

State of the art of machine learning models in energy systems: A systematic review

Machine learning (ML) models have been widely used in the modeling, design and prediction in energy systems. During the past two decades, there has been a dramatic increase in the advancement and application of various types of ML models for energy systems. This paper presents the state of the art of ML models used in energy systems along with a novel taxonomy of models and applications. Through a novel methodology, ML models are identified and further classified according to the ML modeling technique, energy type, and application area. Furthermore, a comprehensive review of the literature leads to an assessment and performance evaluation of the ML models and their applications, and a discussion of the major challenges and opportunities for prospective research. This paper further concludes that there is an outstanding rise in the accuracy, robustness, precision and generalization ability of the ML models in energy systems using hybrid ML models. Hybridization is reported to be effective in the advancement of prediction models, particularly for renewable energy systems, e.g., solar energy, wind energy, and biofuels. Moreover, the energy demand prediction using hybrid models of ML have highly contributed to the energy efficiency and therefore energy governance and sustainability

An Improved Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm Inspired from Cell Communication Mechanism

Fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) invented recently is a new swarm intelligence method based on fruit fly’s foraging behaviors and has been shown to be competitive with existing evolutionary algorithms, such as particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. However, there are still some disadvantages in the FOA, such as low convergence precision, easily trapped in a local optimum value at the later evolution stage. This paper presents an improved FOA based on the cell communication mechanism (CFOA), by considering the information of the global worst, mean, and best solutions into the search strategy to improve the exploitation. The results from a set of numerical benchmark functions show that the CFOA outperforms the FOA and the PSO in most of the experiments. Further, the CFOA is applied to optimize the controller for preoxidation furnaces in carbon fibers production. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the CFOA