A Comparative Study on the Use of Classification Algorithms in Financial Forecasting

Financial forecasting is a vital area in computational finance, where several studies have taken place over the years. One way of viewing financial forecasting is as a classification problem, where the goal is to find a model that represents the predictive relationships between predictor attribute values and class attribute values. In this paper we present a comparative study between two bio-inspired classification algorithms, a genetic programming algorithm especially designed for financial forecasting, and an ant colony optimization one, which is designed for classification problems. In addition, we compare the above algorithms with two other state-of-the-art classification algorithms, namely C4.5 and RIPPER. Results show that the ant colony optimization classification algorithm is very successful, significantly outperforming all other algorithms in the given classification problems, which provides insights for improving the design of specific financial forecasting algorithms

Combinatorial optimization and metaheuristics

Today, combinatorial optimization is one of the youngest and most active areas of discrete mathematics. It is a branch of optimization in applied mathematics and computer science, related to operational research, algorithm theory and computational complexity theory. It sits at the intersection of several fields, including artificial intelligence, mathematics and software engineering. Its increasing interest arises for the fact that a large number of scientific and industrial problems can be formulated as abstract combinatorial optimization problems, through graphs and/or (integer) linear programs. Some of these problems have polynomial-time (“efficient”) algorithms, while most of them are NP-hard, i.e. it is not proved that they can be solved in polynomial-time. Mainly, it means that it is not possible to guarantee that an exact solution to the problem can be found and one has to settle for an approximate solution with known performance guarantees. Indeed, the goal of approximate methods is to find “quickly” (reasonable run-times), with “high” probability, provable “good” solutions (low error from the real optimal solution). In the last 20 years, a new kind of algorithm commonly called metaheuristics have emerged in this class, which basically try to combine heuristics in high level frameworks aimed at efficiently and effectively exploring the search space. This report briefly outlines the components, concepts, advantages and disadvantages of different metaheuristic approaches from a conceptual point of view, in order to analyze their similarities and differences. The two very significant forces of intensification and diversification, that mainly determine the behavior of a metaheuristic, will be pointed out. The report concludes by exploring the importance of hybridization and integration methods

Ant colony optimization and its application to the vehicle routing problem with pickups and deliveries

Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) is a population-based metaheuristic that can be used to find approximate solutions to difficult optimization problems. It was first introduced for solving the Traveling Salesperson Problem. Since then many implementations of ACO have been proposed for a variety of combinatorial optimization. In this chapter, ACO is applied to the Vehicle Routing Problem with Pickup and Delivery (VRPPD). VRPPD determines a set of vehicle routes originating and ending at a single depot and visiting all customers exactly once. The vehicles are not only required to deliver goods but also to pick up some goods from the customers. The objective is to minimize the total distance traversed. The chapter first provides an overview of ACO approach and presents several implementations to various combinatorial optimization problems. Next, VRPPD is described and the related literature is reviewed, Then, an ACO approach for VRPPD is discussed. The approach proposes a new visibility function which attempts to capture the “delivery” and “pickup” nature of the problem. The performance of the approach is tested using well-known benchmark problems from the literature

A Hybrid of Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm and Simulated Annealing for Classification Rules

Ant colony optimization (ACO) is a metaheuristic approach inspired from the behaviour of natural ants and can be used to solve a variety of combinatorial optimization problems. Classification rule induction is one of the problems solved by the Ant-miner algorithm, a variant of ACO, which was initiated by Parpinelli in 2001. Previous studies have shown that ACO is a promising machine learning technique to generate classification rules. However, the Ant-miner is less class focused since the rule’s class is assigned after the rule was constructed. There is also the case where the Ant-miner cannot find any optimal solution for some data sets. Thus, this thesis proposed two variants of hybrid ACO with simulated annealing (SA) algorithm for solving problem of classification rule induction. In the first proposed algorithm, SA is used to optimize the rule's discovery activity by an ant. Benchmark data sets from various fields were used to test the proposed algorithms. Experimental results obtained from this proposed algorithm are comparable to the results of the Ant-miner and other well-known rule induction algorithms in terms of rule accuracy, but are better in terms of rule simplicity. The second proposed algorithm uses SA to optimize the terms selection while constructing a rule. The algorithm fixes the class before rule's construction. Since the algorithm fixed the class before each rule's construction, a much simpler heuristic and fitness function is proposed. Experimental results obtained from the proposed algorithm are much higher than other compared algorithms, in terms of predictive accuracy. The successful work on hybridization of ACO and SA algorithms has led to the improved learning ability of ACO for classification. Thus, a higher predictive power classification model for various fields could be generated

Finding groups in data: Cluster analysis with ants

Wepresent in this paper a modification of Lumer and Faieta’s algorithm for data clustering. This approach mimics the clustering behavior observed in real ant colonies. This algorithm discovers automatically clusters in numerical data without prior knowledge of possible number of clusters. In this paper we focus on ant-based clustering algorithms, a particular kind of a swarm intelligent system, and on the effects on the final clustering by using during the classification differentmetrics of dissimilarity: Euclidean, Cosine, and Gower measures. Clustering with swarm-based algorithms is emerging as an alternative to more conventional clustering methods, such as e.g. k-means, etc. Among the many bio-inspired techniques, ant clustering algorithms have received special attention, especially because they still require much investigation to improve performance, stability and other key features that would make such algorithms mature tools for data mining. As a case study, this paper focus on the behavior of clustering procedures in those new approaches. The proposed algorithm and its modifications are evaluated in a number of well-known benchmark datasets. Empirical results clearly show that ant-based clustering algorithms performs well when compared to another techniques