Applying Revenue Management to the Reverse Supply Chain

We study the disposition decision for product returns in a closed-loop supply chain. Motivated by the asset recovery process at IBM, we consider two disposition alternatives. Returns may be either refurbished for reselling or dismantled for spare parts. Reselling a refurbished unit typically yields higher unit margins. However, demand is uncertain. A common policy in many firms is to rank disposition alternatives by unit margins. We show that a revenue management approach to the disposition decision which explicitly incorporates demand uncertainty can increase profits significantly. We discuss analogies between the disposition problem and the classical airline revenue management problem. We then develop single period and multi-period stochastic optimization models for the disposition problem. Analyzing these models, we show that the optimal allocation balances expected marginal profits across the disposition alternatives. A detailed numerical study reveals that a revenue management approach to the disposition problem significantly outperforms the current practice of focusing exclusively on high-margin options, and we identify conditions under which this improvement is the highest. We also show that the value recovered from the returned products critically depends on the coordination between forward and reverse supply chain decisions.remanufacturing;revenue management;onderdelen;revenues;spare parts inventory

Accounting estimates as cost inputs to logistics models

Production Function;econometrics

Reliability-based economic model predictive control for generalized flow-based networks including actuators' health-aware capabilities

This paper proposes a reliability-based economic model predictive control (MPC) strategy for the management of generalized flow-based networks, integrating some ideas on network service reliability, dynamic safety stock planning, and degradation of equipment health. The proposed strategy is based on a single-layer economic optimisation problem with dynamic constraints, which includes two enhancements with respect to existing approaches. The first enhancement considers chance-constraint programming to compute an optimal inventory replenishment policy based on a desired risk acceptability level, leading to dynamically allocate safety stocks in flow-based networks to satisfy non-stationary flow demands. The second enhancement computes a smart distribution of the control effort and maximises actuators’ availability by estimating their degradation and reliability. The proposed approach is illustrated with an application of water transport networks using the Barcelona network as the considered case study.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Why markdown as a pricing modality?

Markdown as a pricing modality is ubiquitous in retail whereas everyday low price (EDLP) remains relatively rare (despite its several advantages, such as simplicity). This paper explores whether and why retailers can use either of these pricing modalities as an effective defense against a competitor entering the market with the alternative pricing modality. Various studies have shown that consumers are strategic and heterogeneous in their valuation of a product. Consumers are also shown to be regret-prone, and anticipation of regret affects their purchase decisions. Consumers experience availability regret when they are unable to purchase products due to stockouts and high-price regret when they miss an opportunity to purchase products at low prices. Considering such factors, consumers decide whether, when, and from which retailer to purchase the product. In such a market environment, we find that the possible entry of a competitor should deter retailers from using the EDLP pricing modality but not markdown. We also identify a new reason for the markdown retailer to ration stock (in addition to the reason for discouraging consumers to wait for the markdown). In particular, we show that the markdown retailer can use inventory rationing to preclude a cutthroat competition and bankruptcy after the entry of an EDLP retailer. We also quantify how consumer regret affects both retailers' decisions and resulting profits. In particular, in a competitive market, the EDLP retailer cannot simply disregard consumers' availability and high-price regret (even when it stocks ample inventory and does not discount prices). We show that high-price regret and availability regret have complementary effects on the markdown retailer's rationing strategy and the EDLP retailer's price decision. Finally, using a proprietary price data set from a large department store, we show that ignoring regret factors causes the markdown retailer to leave up to 20% of its profits on the table. In addition, in a competitive market, the markdown retailer rations too aggressively when regret is ignored and, as a result, leaves some of the forgone profit to its competitor-the EDLP retailer. The retail industry is often characterized by its slim profit margins. In such an environment, the aforementioned results also suggest that retailers should seriously consider investing in developing the capacity to estimate and quantify the role of regret in consumers' purchase decisions

Smooth is smart: bullwhip, inventory, fill-rates and the golden ratio.

Inventory;

The microeconomics of food security

This article develops a dynamic microeconomic model of food security under uncertainty, with special focus on the relationships between food demand, nutrition and human survival. It investigates the influence of entitlements on malnutrition, hunger and starvation under uncertainty. It develops useful insights on the links between food security and a number of policy instruments commonly used in dealing with malnutrition and starvation.Food Security and Poverty,

Money, Imperfect Information and Economic Fluctuations

This paper summarizes the macro-economic and, in particular, monetary and financial market implications of recent developments in the micro-economic theory of imperfect information. These micro-economic models which lead to credit-rationing on the one hand and limitations in the availability of equity type financing on the other can account for a wide range of observed business cycle and monetary phenomena. These include (a) unemployment, (b) the existence of Keynesian-type multiples, (c) the observed lack of production smoothing in response to cyclical fluctuations in demand, (d) the impact of monetary policy on business activity despite the absence of significant changes in real interest rates, and (e) price rigidities which arise from rational firm decisions (not as an a priori assumption).

Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles

This paper develops a simple model of macroeconomic behavior which incorporates the impact of financial market "imperfections," such as those generated by asymmetric information in financial markets. These information asymmetries may lead to breakdowns in markets, like that for equity, in which risks arm shared. In particular, we analyze firm behavior in the presence of equity rationing and imperfect futures markets, in which there are lags in production. Aft a consequence, firms act in a risk-averse manner. We trace out the macroeconomic consequences, and show that they are able to account for many of the widely observed aspects of actual business cycles.