Statistical modelling and analysis of traffic: a dynamic approach

In both developed and emerging-economies, major cities continue to experience increasing traffic congestion. To address this issue, complex Traffic Management Systems (TMS) are employed in recent years to help manage traffic. These systems fuse traffic-surveillance-related information from a variety of sensors deployed across traffic networks. A TMS requires real-time information to make effective control decisions and to deliver trustworthy information to users, such as travel time, congestion level, etc. There are three fundamental inputs required by TMS, namely, traffic volume, vehicular speed, and traffic density. Using conventional traffic loop detectors one can directly measure flow and velocity. However, traffic density is more difficult to measure. The situation becomes more difficult for multi-lane motorways due to drivers lane-change behaviour. This research investigates statistical modelling and analysis of traffic flow. It contributes to the literature of transportation and traffic management and research in several aspects. First, it takes into account lane-changes in traffic modelling through incorporating a Markov chain model to describe the drivers lane-change behaviour. Secondly, the lane change probabilities between two adjacent lanes are not assumed to be fixed but rather they depend on the current traffic condition. A discrete choice model is used to capture drivers lane choice behaviour. The drivers choice probabilities are modelled by several traffic-condition related attributes such as vehicle time headway, traffic density and speed. This results in a highly nonlinear state equation for traffic density. To address the issue of high nonlinearity of the state space model, the EKF and UKF is used to estimate the traffic density recursively. In addition, a new transformation approach has been proposed to transform the observation equation from a nonlinear form to a linear one so that the potential approximation in the EKF & UKF can be avoided. Numerical studies have been conducted to investigate the performance of the developed method. The proposed method outperformed the existing methods for traffic density estimation in simulation studies. Furthermore, it is shown that the computational cost for updating the estimate of traffic densities for a multi-lane motorway is kept at a minimum so that online applications are feasible in practice. Consequently the traffic densities can be monitored and the relevant information can be fed into the traffic management system of interest

The state of the art of cooperative and connected autonomous vehicles from the future mobility management perspective:a systematic review

© 2022 The Authors. Published by MDPI. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence. The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.3390/futuretransp2030032Cooperative and connected autonomous vehicles (CCAVs) are considered to be a promising solution for addressing congestion and other operational deficiencies, as part of a holistic future mobility management framework. As a result, a significant number of studies have recently been published on this topic. From the perspective of future mobility management, this review paper discusses three themes, which are traffic management, network performance, and mobility management, including congestion, and incident detection using the PRISMA methodology. Three databases were considered for this study, and peer-reviewed primary studies were selected that were published within the last 10 years in the English language, focusing on CCAV in the context of the future transportation and mobility management perspective. For synthesis and interpretation, like-for-like comparisons were made among studies; it was found that extensive research-supported information is required to ensure a smooth transition from conventional vehicles to the CCAVs regime, to achieve the projected traffic and environmental benefits. Research investigations are ongoing to optimize these benefits and associated goals via the setting of different models and simulations. The tools and technologies for the testing and simulation of CCAV were found to have limited capacity. Following the review of the current state-of-the-art, recommendations for future research have been discussed. The most notable is the need for large-scale simulations to understand the impact of CCAVs beyond corridor-based and small-scale networks, the need for understanding the interactions between the drivers of CCAVs and traffic management centers, and the need to assess the technological transition, as far as infrastructure systems are concerned, that is necessary for the progressive penetration of CCAVs into traffic streams.This research was funded by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, grant number 955317.Published onlin

The UK Transport Carbon Model : An integrated life cycle approach to explore low carbon futures

Peer reviewedPostprin