Wind Speed Intervals Prediction using Meta-cognitive Approach

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. In this paper, an interval type-2 neural fuzzy inference system and its meta-cognitive learning algorithm for wind speed prediction is proposed. Interval type-2 neuro-fuzzy system is capable of handling uncertainty associated with the data and meta-cognition employs self-regulation mechanism for learning. The proposed system realizes Takagi-Sugeno-Kang inference mechanism and adopts a fast data-driven interval-reduction method. Meta-cognitive learning enables the network structure to evolve automatically based on the knowledge in data. The parameters are updated based on an extended Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, the proposed network is able to construct prediction intervals to quantify uncertainty associated with forecasts. For performance evaluation, a real-world wind speed prediction problem is utilized. Using historical data, the model provides short-term prediction intervals of wind speed. The performance of proposed algorithm is compared with existing state-of-the art fuzzy inference system approaches and the results clearly indicate its advantages in forecasting problems

Wave Forecasting using Meta-cognitive Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Inference System

© 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Renewable energy is fast becoming a mainstay in today's energy scenario. One of the important sources of renewable energy is the wave energy, in addition to wind, solar, tidal, etc. Wave prediction/forecasting is consequently essential in coastal and ocean engineering studies. However, it is difficult to predict wave parameters in long term and even in the short term due to its intermittent nature. This study aims to propose a solution to handle the issue using Interval type-2 fuzzy inference system, or IT2FIS. IT2FIS has been shown to be capable of handling uncertainty associated with the data. The proposed IT2FIS is a fuzzy neural network realizing Takagi-Sugeno-Kang inference mechanism employing meta-cognitive learning algorithm. The algorithm monitors knowledge in a sample to decide an appropriate learning strategy. Performance of the system is evaluated by studying significant wave heights obtained from buoys located in Singapore. The results compared with existing state-of-the art fuzzy inference system approaches clearly indicate the advantage of IT2FIS based wave prediction

Evolving fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy approaches in clustering, regression, identification, and classification: A Survey

Major assumptions in computational intelligence and machine learning consist of the availability of a historical dataset for model development, and that the resulting model will, to some extent, handle similar instances during its online operation. However, in many real world applications, these assumptions may not hold as the amount of previously available data may be insufficient to represent the underlying system, and the environment and the system may change over time. As the amount of data increases, it is no longer feasible to process data efficiently using iterative algorithms, which typically require multiple passes over the same portions of data. Evolving modeling from data streams has emerged as a framework to address these issues properly by self-adaptation, single-pass learning steps and evolution as well as contraction of model components on demand and on the fly. This survey focuses on evolving fuzzy rule-based models and neuro-fuzzy networks for clustering, classification and regression and system identification in online, real-time environments where learning and model development should be performed incrementally. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Inc.Igor Škrjanc, Jose Antonio Iglesias and Araceli Sanchis would like to thank to the Chair of Excellence of Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, and the Bank of Santander Program for their support. Igor Škrjanc is grateful to Slovenian Research Agency with the research program P2-0219, Modeling, simulation and control. Daniel Leite acknowledges the Minas Gerais Foundation for Research and Development (FAPEMIG), process APQ-03384-18. Igor Škrjanc and Edwin Lughofer acknowledges the support by the ”LCM — K2 Center for Symbiotic Mechatronics” within the framework of the Austrian COMET-K2 program. Fernando Gomide is grateful to the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for grant 305906/2014-3

Particle Swarm Optimized Autonomous Learning Fuzzy System

The antecedent and consequent parts of a first-order evolving intelligent system (EIS) determine the validity of the learning results and overall system performance. Nonetheless, the state-of-the-art techniques mostly stress on the novelty from the system identification point of view but pay less attention to the optimality of the learned parameters. Using the recently introduced autonomous learning multiple model (ALMMo) system as the implementation basis, this paper introduces a particles warm-based approach for EIS optimization. The proposed approach is able to simultaneously optimize the antecedent and consequent parameters of ALMMo and effectively enhance the system performance by iteratively searching for optimal solutions in the problem spaces. In addition, the proposed optimization approach does not adversely influence the “one pass” learning ability of ALMMo. Once the optimization process is complete, ALMMo can continue to learn from new data to incorporate unseen data patterns recursively without a full retraining. Experimental studies with a number of real-world benchmark problems validate the proposed concept and general principles. It is also verified that the proposed optimization approach can be applied to other types of EISs with similar operating mechanisms

Using spatiotemporal patterns to qualitatively represent and manage dynamic situations of interest : a cognitive and integrative approach

Les situations spatio-temporelles dynamiques sont des situations qui évoluent dans l’espace et dans le temps. L’être humain peut identifier des configurations de situations dans son environnement et les utilise pour prendre des décisions. Ces configurations de situations peuvent aussi être appelées « situations d’intérêt » ou encore « patrons spatio-temporels ». En informatique, les situations sont obtenues par des systèmes d’acquisition de données souvent présents dans diverses industries grâce aux récents développements technologiques et qui génèrent des bases de données de plus en plus volumineuses. On relève un problème important dans la littérature lié au fait que les formalismes de représentation utilisés sont souvent incapables de représenter des phénomènes spatiotemporels dynamiques et complexes qui reflètent la réalité. De plus, ils ne prennent pas en considération l’appréhension cognitive (modèle mental) que l’humain peut avoir de son environnement. Ces facteurs rendent difficile la mise en œuvre de tels modèles par des agents logiciels. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons un nouveau modèle de représentation des situations d’intérêt s’appuyant sur la notion des patrons spatiotemporels. Notre approche utilise les graphes conceptuels pour offrir un aspect qualitatif au modèle de représentation. Le modèle se base sur les notions d’événement et d’état pour représenter des phénomènes spatiotemporels dynamiques. Il intègre la notion de contexte pour permettre aux agents logiciels de raisonner avec les instances de patrons détectés. Nous proposons aussi un outil de génération automatisée des relations qualitatives de proximité spatiale en utilisant un classificateur flou. Finalement, nous proposons une plateforme de gestion des patrons spatiotemporels pour faciliter l’intégration de notre modèle dans des applications industrielles réelles. Ainsi, les contributions principales de notre travail sont : Un formalisme de représentation qualitative des situations spatiotemporelles dynamiques en utilisant des graphes conceptuels. ; Une approche cognitive pour la définition des patrons spatio-temporels basée sur l’intégration de l’information contextuelle. ; Un outil de génération automatique des relations spatiales qualitatives de proximité basé sur les classificateurs neuronaux flous. ; Une plateforme de gestion et de détection des patrons spatiotemporels basée sur l’extension d’un moteur de traitement des événements complexes (Complex Event Processing).Dynamic spatiotemporal situations are situations that evolve in space and time. They are part of humans’ daily life. One can be interested in a configuration of situations occurred in the environment and can use it to make decisions. In the literature, such configurations are referred to as “situations of interests” or “spatiotemporal patterns”. In Computer Science, dynamic situations are generated by large scale data acquisition systems which are deployed everywhere thanks to recent technological advances. Spatiotemporal pattern representation is a research subject which gained a lot of attraction from two main research areas. In spatiotemporal analysis, various works extended query languages to represent patterns and to query them from voluminous databases. In Artificial Intelligence, predicate-based models represent spatiotemporal patterns and detect their instances using rule-based mechanisms. Both approaches suffer several shortcomings. For example, they do not allow for representing dynamic and complex spatiotemporal phenomena due to their limited expressiveness. Furthermore, they do not take into account the human’s mental model of the environment in their representation formalisms. This limits the potential of building agent-based solutions to reason about these patterns. In this thesis, we propose a novel approach to represent situations of interest using the concept of spatiotemporal patterns. We use Conceptual Graphs to offer a qualitative representation model of these patterns. Our model is based on the concepts of spatiotemporal events and states to represent dynamic spatiotemporal phenomena. It also incorporates contextual information in order to facilitate building the knowledge base of software agents. Besides, we propose an intelligent proximity tool based on a neuro-fuzzy classifier to support qualitative spatial relations in the pattern model. Finally, we propose a framework to manage spatiotemporal patterns in order to facilitate the integration of our pattern representation model to existing applications in the industry. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows: A qualitative approach to model dynamic spatiotemporal situations of interest using Conceptual Graphs. ; A cognitive approach to represent spatiotemporal patterns by integrating contextual information. ; An automated tool to generate qualitative spatial proximity relations based on a neuro-fuzzy classifier. ; A platform for detection and management of spatiotemporal patterns using an extension of a Complex Event Processing engine

Development of advanced autonomous learning algorithms for nonlinear system identification and control

Identification of nonlinear dynamical systems, data stream analysis, etc. is usually handled by autonomous learning algorithms like evolving fuzzy and evolving neuro-fuzzy systems (ENFSs). They are characterized by the single-pass learning mode and open structure-property. Such features enable their effective handling of fast and rapidly changing natures of data streams. The underlying bottleneck of ENFSs lies in its design principle, which involves a high number of free parameters (rule premise and rule consequent) to be adapted in the training process. This figure can even double in the case of the type-2 fuzzy system. From this literature gap, a novel ENFS, namely Parsimonious Learning Machine (PALM) is proposed in this thesis. To reduce the number of network parameters significantly, PALM features utilization of a new type of fuzzy rule based on the concept of hyperplane clustering, where it has no rule premise parameters. PALM is proposed in both type-1 and type-2 fuzzy systems where all of them characterize a fully dynamic rule-based system. Thus, it is capable of automatically generating, merging, and tuning the hyperplane-based fuzzy rule in a single-pass manner. Moreover, an extension of PALM, namely recurrent PALM (rPALM), is proposed and adopts the concept of teacher-forcing mechanism in the deep learning literature. The efficacy of both PALM and rPALM have been evaluated through numerical study with data streams and to identify nonlinear unmanned aerial vehicle system. The proposed models showcase significant improvements in terms of computational complexity and the number of required parameters against several renowned ENFSs while attaining comparable and often better predictive accuracy. The ENFSs have also been utilized to develop three autonomous intelligent controllers (AICons) in this thesis. They are namely Generic (G) controller, Parsimonious controller (PAC), and Reduced Parsimonious Controller (RedPAC). All these controllers start operating from scratch with an empty set of fuzzy rules, and no offline training is required. To cope with the dynamic behavior of the plant, these controllers can add, merge or prune the rules on demand. Among three AICons, the G-controller is built by utilizing an advanced incremental learning machine, namely Generic Evolving Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System. The integration of generalized adaptive resonance theory provides a compact structure of the G-controller. Consequently, the faster evolution of structure is witnessed, which lowers its computational cost. Another AICon namely, PAC is rooted with PALM's architecture. Since PALM has a dependency on user-defined thresholds to adapt the structure, these thresholds are replaced with the concept of bias- variance trade-off in PAC. In RedPAC, the network parameters have further reduced in contrast with PALM-based PAC, where the number of consequent parameters has reduced to one parameter per rule. These AICons work with very minor expert domain knowledge and developed by incorporating the sliding mode control technique. In G-controller and RedPAC, the control law and adaptation laws for the consequent parameters are derived from the SMC algorithm to establish a stable closed-loop system, where the stability of these controllers are guaranteed by using the Lyapunov function and the uniform asymptotic convergence of tracking error to zero is witnessed through the implication of an auxiliary robustifying control term. While using PAC, the boundedness and convergence of the closed-loop control system's tracking error and the controller's consequent parameters are confirmed by utilizing the LaSalle-Yoshizawa theorem. Their efficacy is evaluated by observing various trajectory tracking performance of unmanned aerial vehicles. The accuracy of these controllers is comparable or better than the benchmark controllers where the proposed controllers incur significantly fewer parameters to attain similar or better tracking performance

Koneoppimiskehys petrokemianteollisuuden sovelluksille

Machine learning has many potentially useful applications in process industry, for example in process monitoring and control. Continuously accumulating process data and the recent development in software and hardware that enable more advanced machine learning, are fulfilling the prerequisites of developing and deploying process automation integrated machine learning applications which improve existing functionalities or even implement artificial intelligence. In this master's thesis, a framework is designed and implemented on a proof-of-concept level, to enable easy acquisition of process data to be used with modern machine learning libraries, and to also enable scalable online deployment of the trained models. The literature part of the thesis concentrates on studying the current state and approaches for digital advisory systems for process operators, as a potential application to be developed on the machine learning framework. The literature study shows that the approaches for process operators' decision support tools have shifted from rule-based and knowledge-based methods to machine learning. However, no standard methods can be concluded, and most of the use cases are quite application-specific. In the developed machine learning framework, both commercial software and open source components with permissive licenses are used. Data is acquired over OPC UA and then processed in Python, which is currently almost the de facto standard language in data analytics. Microservice architecture with containerization is used in the online deployment, and in a qualitative evaluation, it proved to be a versatile and functional solution.Koneoppimisella voidaan osoittaa olevan useita hyödyllisiä käyttökohteita prosessiteollisuudessa, esimerkiksi prosessinohjaukseen liittyvissä sovelluksissa. Jatkuvasti kerääntyvä prosessidata ja toisaalta koneoppimiseen soveltuvien ohjelmistojen sekä myös laitteistojen viimeaikainen kehitys johtavat tilanteeseen, jossa prosessiautomaatioon liitettyjen koneoppimissovellusten avulla on mahdollista parantaa nykyisiä toiminnallisuuksia tai jopa toteuttaa tekoälysovelluksia. Tässä diplomityössä suunniteltiin ja toteutettiin prototyypin tasolla koneoppimiskehys, jonka avulla on helppo käyttää prosessidataa yhdessä nykyaikaisten koneoppimiskirjastojen kanssa. Kehys mahdollistaa myös koneopittujen mallien skaalautuvan käyttöönoton. Diplomityön kirjallisuusosa keskittyy prosessioperaattoreille tarkoitettujen digitaalisten avustajajärjestelmien nykytilaan ja toteutustapoihin, avustajajärjestelmän tai sen päätöstukijärjestelmän ollessa yksi mahdollinen koneoppimiskehyksen päälle rakennettava ohjelma. Kirjallisuustutkimuksen mukaan prosessioperaattorin päätöstukijärjestelmien taustalla olevat menetelmät ovat yhä useammin koneoppimiseen perustuvia, aiempien sääntö- ja tietämyskantoihin perustuvien menetelmien sijasta. Selkeitä yhdenmukaisia lähestymistapoja ei kuitenkaan ole helposti pääteltävissä kirjallisuuden perusteella. Lisäksi useimmat tapausesimerkit ovat sovellettavissa vain kyseisissä erikoistapauksissa. Kehitetyssä koneoppimiskehyksessä on käytetty sekä kaupallisia että avoimen lähdekoodin komponentteja. Prosessidata haetaan OPC UA -protokollan avulla, ja sitä on mahdollista käsitellä Python-kielellä, josta on muodostunut lähes de facto -standardi data-analytiikassa. Kehyksen käyttöönottokomponentit perustuvat mikropalveluarkkitehtuuriin ja konttiteknologiaan, jotka osoittautuivat laadullisessa testauksessa monipuoliseksi ja toimivaksi toteutustavaksi

A Review of Findings from Neuroscience and Cognitive Psychology as Possible Inspiration for the Path to Artificial General Intelligence

This review aims to contribute to the quest for artificial general intelligence by examining neuroscience and cognitive psychology methods for potential inspiration. Despite the impressive advancements achieved by deep learning models in various domains, they still have shortcomings in abstract reasoning and causal understanding. Such capabilities should be ultimately integrated into artificial intelligence systems in order to surpass data-driven limitations and support decision making in a way more similar to human intelligence. This work is a vertical review that attempts a wide-ranging exploration of brain function, spanning from lower-level biological neurons, spiking neural networks, and neuronal ensembles to higher-level concepts such as brain anatomy, vector symbolic architectures, cognitive and categorization models, and cognitive architectures. The hope is that these concepts may offer insights for solutions in artificial general intelligence.Comment: 143 pages, 49 figures, 244 reference

CBR and MBR techniques: review for an application in the emergencies domain

The purpose of this document is to provide an in-depth analysis of current reasoning engine practice and the integration strategies of Case Based Reasoning and Model Based Reasoning that will be used in the design and development of the RIMSAT system. RIMSAT (Remote Intelligent Management Support and Training) is a European Commission funded project designed to: a.. Provide an innovative, 'intelligent', knowledge based solution aimed at improving the quality of critical decisions b.. Enhance the competencies and responsiveness of individuals and organisations involved in highly complex, safety critical incidents - irrespective of their location. In other words, RIMSAT aims to design and implement a decision support system that using Case Base Reasoning as well as Model Base Reasoning technology is applied in the management of emergency situations. This document is part of a deliverable for RIMSAT project, and although it has been done in close contact with the requirements of the project, it provides an overview wide enough for providing a state of the art in integration strategies between CBR and MBR technologies.Postprint (published version