AUGUR: Forecasting the Emergence of New Research Topics

Being able to rapidly recognise new research trends is strategic for many stakeholders, including universities, institutional funding bodies, academic publishers and companies. The literature presents several approaches to identifying the emergence of new research topics, which rely on the assumption that the topic is already exhibiting a certain degree of popularity and consistently referred to by a community of researchers. However, detecting the emergence of a new research area at an embryonic stage, i.e., before the topic has been consistently labelled by a community of researchers and associated with a number of publications, is still an open challenge. We address this issue by introducing Augur, a novel approach to the early detection of research topics. Augur analyses the diachronic relationships between research areas and is able to detect clusters of topics that exhibit dynamics correlated with the emergence of new research topics. Here we also present the Advanced Clique Percolation Method (ACPM), a new community detection algorithm developed specifically for supporting this task. Augur was evaluated on a gold standard of 1,408 debutant topics in the 2000-2011 interval and outperformed four alternative approaches in terms of both precision and recall

Early Detection and Forecasting of Research Trends

Identifying and forecasting research trends is of critical importance for a variety of stakeholders, including researchers, academic publishers, institutional funding bodies, companies operating in the innovation space and others. Currently, this task is performed either by domain experts, with the assistance of tools for exploring research data, or by automatic approaches. The constant increase of research data makes the second solution more appropriate, howeverautomatic methods suffer from a number of limitations. For instance, they are unable to detect emerging but yet unlabelled research areas (e.g., Semantic Web before 2000). Furthermore, they usually quantify the popularity of a topic simply in terms of the number of related publications or authors for each year; hence they can provide good forecasts only on trends which have existed for at least 3-4 years. This doctoral work aims at solving these limitations by providing a novel approach for the early detection and forecasting of research trends that will take advantage of the rich variety of semantic relationships between research entities (e.g., authors, workshops, communities) and of social media data (e.g., tweets, blogs)

Detection of Embryonic Research Topics by Analysing Semantic Topic Networks

Being aware of new research topics is an important asset for anybody involved in the research environment, including researchers, academic publishers and institutional funding bodies. In recent years, the amount of scholarly data available on the web has increased steadily, allowing the development of several approaches for detecting emerging research topics and assessing their trends. However, current methods focus on the detection of topics which are already associated with a label or a substantial number of documents. In this paper, we address instead the issue of detecting embryonic topics, which do not possess these characteristics yet. We suggest that it is possible to forecast the emergence of novel research topics even at such early stage and demonstrate that the emergence of a new topic can be anticipated by analysing the dynamics of pre-existing topics. We present an approach to evaluate such dynamics and an experiment on a sample of 3 million research papers, which confirms our hypothesis. In particular, we found that the pace of collaboration in sub-graphs of topics that will give rise to novel topics is significantly higher than the one in the control group

Bibliometric analysis and trends: an application in senior tourism

This study applies bibliometric analysis to senior tourism research from 1998 to 2017, identifies its intellectual structure, emerging trends, and future research opportunities. A detailed search of documents collated from Web-of-Science and Scopus was implemented and analyzed through CiteSpace. The results reveal a slowly increasing growth of research with six main areas of research. The network of journals shows a core peripheral structure with Tourism Management ranked first. Among countries’ publications, the United States leads in volume. The identification of structural holes, the keyword analysis and development of emerging tendencies highlights priorities in senior tourism pointing to new opportunities for research. This study is differentiated from others by its temporal and dynamic analysis of the last two decades, utilizing CiteSpace for a co-citation and co-occurrence network analysis. As a result, the researchers and the hospitality sector were equipped with new exploration tools.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

An extensive analysis of the presence of altmetric data for Web of Science publications across subject fields and research topics

Sufficient data presence is one of the key preconditions for applying metrics in practice. Based on both Altmetric.com data and Mendeley data collected up to 2019, this paper presents a state-of-the-art analysis of the presence of 12 kinds of altmetric events for nearly 12.3 million Web of Science publications published between 2012 and 2018. Results show that even though an upward trend of data presence can be observed over time, except for Mendeley readers and Twitter mentions, the overall presence of most altmetric data is still low. The majority of altmetric events go to publications in the fields of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Social Sciences and Humanities, and Life and Earth Sciences. As to research topics, the level of attention received by research topics varies across altmetric data, and specific altmetric data show different preferences for research topics, on the basis of which a framework for identifying hot research topics is proposed and applied to detect research topics with higher levels of attention garnered on certain altmetric data source. Twitter mentions and policy document citations were selected as two examples to identify hot research topics of interest of Twitter users and policy-makers, respectively, shedding light on the potential of altmetric data in monitoring research trends of specific social attention

A bibliometric reconstruction of research trails for qualitative investigations of scientific innovations

"Abrupt changes in research content are of interest to innovation research because many innovations in general and scientific innovations in particular emerge from such changes. However, investigations of innovations emerging from research processes face the problem that the initial change of direction in research by one or few researchers is an elusive phenomenon. The method presented in this article contributes to solving this problem by supporting the in-depth analysis of individual research biographies and of the emergence of new directions of research in these. The method employs bibliometric tools for a reconstruction of individual cognitive careers, embeds these reconstructions in qualitative studies of research biographies, and provides opportunities to link cognitive careers to the dynamics of scientific fields. As we will demonstrate, the method is generic in that it supports not only the investigation of scientific innovations but also, more generally, the identification of thematic change in individual cognitive careers. Two applications in qualitative research projects illustrate the potential of the method." (author's abstract

Analysis of Family-Health-Related Topics on Wikipedia

New concepts, terms, and topics always emerge; and meanings of existing terms and topics keep changing all the time. These phenomena occur more frequently on social media than on conventional media because social media allows a huge number of users to generate information online. Retrieving relevant results in different time periods of a fast-changing topic becomes one of the most difficult challenges in the information retrieval field. Among numerous topics discussed on social media, health-related topics are a major category which attracts increasing attention from the general public. This study investigated and explored the evolution patterns of family-health-related topics on Wikipedia. Three family-health-related topics (Child Maltreatment, Family Planning, and Women’s Health) were selected from the World Health Organization Website and their associated entries were retrieved on Wikipedia. Historical numeric and text data of the entries from 2010 to 2017 were collected from a Wikipedia data dump and the Wikipedia Web pages. Four periods were defined: 2010 to 2011, 2012 to 2013, 2014 to 2015, and 2016 to 2017. Coding, subject analysis, descriptive statistical analysis, inferential statistical analysis, SOM approach, and n-gram approach were employed to explore the internal characteristics and external popularity evolutions of the topics. The findings illustrate that the external popularities of the family-health-related topics declined from 2010 to 2017, although their content on Wikipedia kept increasing. The emerged entries had three features: specialization, summarization, and internationalization. The subjects derived from the entries became increasingly diverse during the investigated periods. Meanwhile, the developing trajectories of the subjects varied from one to another. According to the developing trajectories, the subjects were grouped into three categories: growing subject, diminishing subject, and fluctuating subject. The popularities of the topics among the Wikipedia viewers were consistent, while among the editors were not. For each topic, its popularity trend among the editors and the viewers was inconsistent. Child Maltreatment was the most popular among the three topics, Women’s Health was the second most popular, while Family Planning was the least popular among the three. The implications of this study include: (1) helping health professionals and general users get a more comprehensive understanding of the investigated topics; (2) contributing to the developments of health ontologies and consumer health vocabularies; (3) assisting Website designers in organizing online health information and helping them identify popular family-health-related topics; (4) providing a new approach for query recommendation in information retrieval systems; (5) supporting temporal information retrieval by presenting the temporal changes of family-health-related topics; and (6) providing a new combination of data collection and analysis methods for researchers

Scientific structures in context : identification and use of structures, context, and new developments in science

The use and visualisation of structures in science (sets of related publications, authors, words) is investigated in a number of applications. We hold that the common ground of a field can explain the use and applicability of these structures.LEI Universiteit LeidenFSW - CWTS - Ou

El sector biotecnológico en el marco del sistema público español de I+D : una aproximación cienciométrica

La presente tesis doctoral analiza el ámbito biotecnológico español en el marco del sistema público de I+D, con el fin de definir cuáles son sus fortalezas y debilidades del sector y proponer aquellas actuaciones que se consideran necesarias para mejorar la eficiencia del sistema público de I+D y su contribución a la biotecnología. Este análisis se ha llevado a cabo mediante una aproximación cienciométrica. La Cienciometría es una disciplina que permite estudiar la eficacia de las políticas científicas y la dinámica de la ciencia mediante el empleo de la bibliometría, la estadística y otras técnicas de análisis. Los estudios cienciométricos ayudan a valorar el estado actual de la ciencia y sus resultados permiten apoyar la toma de decisiones sobre la distribución de los recursos disponibles en I+D