New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model

There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task

A Multiagent Approach to Qualitative Navigation in Robotics

Navigation in unknown unstructured environments is still a difficult open problem in the field of robotics. In this PhD thesis we present a novel approach for robot navigation based on the combination of landmark-based navigation, fuzzy distances and angles representation and multiagent coordination based on a bidding mechanism. The objective has been to have a robust navigation system with orientation sense for unstructured environments using visual information. To achieve such objective we have focused our efforts on two main threads: navigation and mapping methods, and control architectures for autonomous robots. Regarding the navigation and mapping task, we have extended the work presented by Prescott, so that it can be used with fuzzy information about the locations of landmarks in the environment. Together with this extension, we have also developed methods to compute diverting targets, needed by the robot when it gets blocked. Regarding the control architecture, we have proposed a general architecture that uses a bidding mechanism to coordinate a group of systems that control the robot. This mechanism can be used at different levels of the control architecture. In our case, we have used it to coordinate the three systems of the robot (Navigation, Pilot and Vision systems) and also to coordinate the agents that compose the Navigation system itself. Using this bidding mechanism the action actually being executed by the robot is the most valued one at each point in time, so, given that the agents bid rationally, the dynamics of the biddings would lead the robot to execute the necessary actions in order to reach a given target. The advantage of using such mechanism is that there is no need to create a hierarchy, such in the subsumption architecture, but it is dynamically changing depending on the specific situation of the robot and the characteristics of the environment. We have obtained successful results, both on simulation and on real experimentation, showing that the mapping system is capable of building a map of an unknown environment and use this information to move the robot from a starting point to a given target. The experimentation also showed that the bidding mechanism we designed for controlling the robot produces the overall behavior of executing the proper action at each moment in order to reach the target

Atmospheric water vapor and the aerosol direct radiative effect : Remote sensing and global model studies

Aerosols affect the climate both directly and indirectly. The direct effect comes from their influence on the radiation balance by scattering and absorption of solar radiation, while the indirect effect is based on the ways in which aerosols interact via clouds. Currently the total anthropogenic aerosol forcing includes one of the main uncertainties in the assessment of human induced climate change. The aerosol direct radiative effect (ADRE) can be simulated with either the radiative transfer modelling or estimated with solar radiation and aerosol amount measurements. Both approaches include significant uncertainties and this thesis focuses on the uncertainties on the measurement based estimation of ADRE and the uncertainties therein. The main scientific objectives of this thesis are to seek answers to the following four questions: 1) are the machine learning algorithms better than the a traditional lookup table (LUT) approach in estimating aerosol load (aerosol optical depth, AOD)?; 2) what is the role of water vapor (WVC) variability in the measurementbased regression method used to estimate the surface ADRE?; 3) how well do the radiative transfer codes, typically used in global aerosol models, agree?; 4) what is the impact of typically neglected diurnal aerosol variability in ADRE estimation? The results show that: 1) the machine learning algorithms are able to provide AOD more accurately than the LUT approach for conditions of varying aerosol optical properties, since in the LUT approach the aerosol model (e.g. single scattering albedo, asymmetry factor) needs to be fixed in advance. 2) It was found that covariability of AOD and WVC can have an influence in ADRE estimates, when using groundbased measurements of surface solar radiation and AOD. This has not been taken into account previously, but needs to be considered when these methods are applied. 3) The model intercomparison study, in which the models estimated the radiative fluxes for the same atmospheric states, revealed that there is relatively large diversity between models regarding the results from their radiative transfer modelling. 4) The main conclusion from the study focusing on the impact of systematic diurnal AOD cycles in aerosol direct radiative effect, was that even a notable diurnal change in AOD does not typically affect the 24h-average ADRE significantly

Bridgewater College Catalog, Session 2010-11

https://digitalcommons.bridgewater.edu/college_catalogs/1124/thumbnail.jp

A HYBRID METHODOLOGY FOR MODELING RISK OF ADVERSE EVENTS IN COMPLEX HEALTHCARE SETTINGS

Despite efforts to provide safe, effective medical care, adverse events still occur with some regularity. While risk cannot be entirely eliminated from healthcare activities, an important goal is to develop effective and durable mitigation strategies to render the system `safer'. In order to do this, though, we must develop models that comprehensively and realistically characterize the risk. In the healthcare domain, this can be extremely challenging due to the wide variability in the way that healthcare processes and interventions are executed and also due to the dynamic nature of risk in this particular domain. In this study we have developed a generic methodology for evaluating dynamic changes in adverse event risk in acute care hospitals as a function of organizational and non-organizational factors, using a combination of modeling formalisms. First, a system dynamics (SD) framework is used to demonstrate how organizational level and policy level contributions to risk evolve over time, and how policies and decisions may affect the general system-level contribution to adverse event risk. It also captures the feedback of organizational factors and decisions over time and the non-linearities in these feedback effects. Second, Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) framework is used to represent patient-level factors and also physician level decisions and factors in the management of an individual patient, which contribute to the risk of hospital-acquired adverse event. The model is intended to support hospital decisions with regards to staffing, length of stay, and investment in safeties, which evolve dynamically over time. The methodology has been applied in modeling the two types of common adverse events; pressure ulcers and vascular catheter-associated infection, and has been validated with eight years of clinical data

Bridgewater College Catalog, Session 1996-97

https://digitalcommons.bridgewater.edu/college_catalogs/1107/thumbnail.jp

Learning the Language of Chemical Reactions – Atom by Atom. Linguistics-Inspired Machine Learning Methods for Chemical Reaction Tasks

Over the last hundred years, not much has changed how organic chemistry is conducted. In most laboratories, the current state is still trial-and-error experiments guided by human expertise acquired over decades. What if, given all the knowledge published, we could develop an artificial intelligence-based assistant to accelerate the discovery of novel molecules? Although many approaches were recently developed to generate novel molecules in silico, only a few studies complete the full design-make-test cycle, including the synthesis and the experimental assessment. One reason is that the synthesis part can be tedious, time-consuming, and requires years of experience to perform successfully. Hence, the synthesis is one of the critical limiting factors in molecular discovery. In this thesis, I take advantage of similarities between human language and organic chemistry to apply linguistic methods to chemical reactions, and develop artificial intelligence-based tools for accelerating chemical synthesis. First, I investigate reaction prediction models focusing on small data sets of challenging stereo- and regioselective carbohydrate reactions. Second, I develop a multi-step synthesis planning tool predicting reactants and suitable reagents (e.g. catalysts and solvents). Both forward prediction and retrosynthesis approaches use black-box models. Hence, I then study methods to provide more information about the models’ predictions. I develop a reaction classification model that labels chemical reaction and facilitates the communication of reaction concepts. As a side product of the classification models, I obtain reaction fingerprints that enable efficient similarity searches in chemical reaction space. Moreover, I study approaches for predicting reaction yields. Lastly, after I approached all chemical reaction tasks with atom-mapping independent models, I demonstrate the generation of accurate atom-mapping from the patterns my models have learned while being trained self-supervised on chemical reactions. My PhD thesis’s leitmotif is the use of the attention-based Transformer architecture to molecules and reactions represented with a text notation. It is like atoms are my letters, molecules my words, and reactions my sentences. With this analogy, I teach my neural network models the language of chemical reactions - atom by atom. While exploring the link between organic chemistry and language, I make an essential step towards the automation of chemical synthesis, which could significantly reduce the costs and time required to discover and create new molecules and materials

Semantic discovery and reuse of business process patterns

Patterns currently play an important role in modern information systems (IS) development and their use has mainly been restricted to the design and implementation phases of the development lifecycle. Given the increasing significance of business modelling in IS development, patterns have the potential of providing a viable solution for promoting reusability of recurrent generalized models in the very early stages of development. As a statement of research-in-progress this paper focuses on business process patterns and proposes an initial methodological framework for the discovery and reuse of business process patterns within the IS development lifecycle. The framework borrows ideas from the domain engineering literature and proposes the use of semantics to drive both the discovery of patterns as well as their reuse