Prediction and performance evaluation of BDI forecasting models : Cross efficiency, the directional distance function and the AVS utility function

Workshop 2015 -Advances in DEA Theory and Applications (December 1-2, 2015)In the study, we propose a nonparametric efficiency measurement approach for the forecasting model selection problem. Three autoregressive models and three fuzzy time series approaches are employed for the calibration of data structure to depict the trend. The directional distance function and portfolio theory are further used to evaluate the performance of BDI predictions. A directional distance function is defined that looks for possible increases in accuracy and skewness, and decreases in variance obtained by cross efficiencies of those forecasting models. We also establish a link to proper indirect accuracy- variance -skewness (AVS) utility function for various users in various utilities. An empirical section on a set of forecasting Baltic Dry Index (BDI) forecasting models serves as an illustration.The workshop is supported by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), #25282090, titled “Studies in Theory and Applications of DEA for Forecasting Purpose.本研究はJSPS科研費 基盤研究(B) 25282090の助成を受けたものです

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of the article is to promote future empirical research that might help to prevent bank failures and financial crises.financial crises; banking failures; operations research; early warning methods; leading indicators; subprime markets

Improving Time to Market Forecasts: A Comparison of Two Technology Forecasting Techniques for Predicting U.S. Fighter Jet Introductions From 1944 to 1982

Since its origin in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been tested with a number of applications. This paper uses a previously published technology forecast comparison of U.S. fighter jets between the years 1944 and 1982 to compare TFDEA to basic regression. Both techniques use aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960 to predict the first flights of those fighters introduced between 1960 and 1982. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using regression. These results indicate that TFDEA may be a powerful new technique for predicting complex technological trends and time to market for new product

Balancing environmental impacts and economic benefits of agriculture under the climate change through an integrated optimization system

The present study proposes a framework to mitigate impact of climate change on the rice production by maximizing the yield while the energy use and ecological impacts on the river ecosystem as the irrigation source are mitigated. Coupled general circulation model- soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was utilized to project the impact of climate change on the stream flow. Fuzzy physical habitat simulation was applied to develop the ecological impact function of the river. Moreover, a data-driven model was developed to predict the rice yield through changing water and energy consumption. Finally, all the simulations were utilized in the structure of the optimization model in which minimizing loss of the production, greenhouse gas emission by reducing energy use and physical habitat loss were considered as the objectives. Based on the results, the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of the SWAT is 0.7 that demonstrates its reliability for simulating the impact of climate change on river flow. The optimization model is able to reduce the impact of climate change on yield of production by balancing water and energy use. In the most pessimistic scenario, water use should approximately be reduced 25% for protecting river ecosystem. However, the optimization model approximately increased energy use 16% for preserving the yield of the rice. Conversely, model decreased the energy use 40% compared with the current condition due to increasing water supply. Moreover, physical habitat loss is less than 50% that means the combined optimization model is able to protect river habitats properly

An artificial neural network approach for assigning rating judgements to Italian Small Firms

Based on new regulations of Basel II Accord in 2004, banks and financial nstitutions have now the possibility to develop internal rating systems with the aim of correctly udging financial health status of firms. This study analyses the situation of Italian small firms that are difficult to judge because their economic and financial data are often not available. The intend of this work is to propose a simulation framework to give a rating judgements to firms presenting poor financial information. The model assigns a rating judgement that is a simulated counterpart of that done by Bureau van Dijk-K Finance (BvD). Assigning rating score to small firms with problem of poor availability of financial data is really problematic. Nevertheless, in Italy the majority of firms are small and there is not a law that requires to firms to deposit balance-sheet in a detailed form. For this reason the model proposed in this work is a three-layer framework that allows us to assign ating judgements to small enterprises using simple balance-sheet data.rating judgements, artificial neural networks, feature selection

An Investment Analysis for China\u27s Sustainable Development Based on Inverse Data Envelopment Analysis

In the face of environmental degradation, sustainable development has become a common goal across the globe. Making a scientifically based investment scheme is of great significance to promote the sustainable development of China\u27s economy. However, there is scarce research related to such an investment scheme of sustainable development. This paper proposes a new inverse data envelopment analysis method with undesirable outputs to make several scientifically based investment schemes from different perspectives, namely, the natural, regulation, and optimal perspectives. By this method, decision makers can scientifically forecast the specific amount of investment based on their actual sustainable development objectives, which is conducive for reducing the blindness of investment in the future. In addition, a new ideal perspective is defined to guide a definite direction for improving the level of sustainable development. Combined with the gray forecasting model GM(1,1), the methods proposed by this paper were then applied to analyze the investment problem for China\u27s sustainable development during the 2015–2024 period. The results show that: the unbalanced distribution of labor investment and the excessive investment in capital and energy are serious barriers to China\u27s sustainable development in the short term; and in the long term, the demand for investment in labor and capital will continue to increase along with a lower demand for energy investment, and that appropriately strengthening environmental regulations will not affect the overall demand for investment. Meanwhile, improvement directions for improving China\u27s sustainable development are discussed, and the results show that most of developing and undeveloped regions in China have great potential for improvement. Finally, some suggestions are proposed in order to create better conditions for China\u27s sustainable development

Food Supply without Risk: Multicriteria Analysis of Institutional Conditions of Exporters

[EN] International trade in food knows no borders, hence the need for prevention systems to avoid the consumption of products that are harmful to health. This paper proposes the use of multicriteria risk prevention tools that consider the socioeconomic and institutional conditions of food exporters. We propose the use of three decision-making methods-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), Elimination et Choix Traduisant la Realite (ELECTRE), and Cross-Efficiency (CE)-to establish a ranking of countries that export cereals to the European Union, based on structural criteria related to the detection of potential associated risks (notifications, food quality, corruption, environmental sustainability in agriculture, and logistics). In addition, the analysis examines whether the wealth and institutional capacity of supplier countries influence their position in the ranking. The research was carried out biannually over the period from 2012-2016, allowing an assessment to be made of the possible stability of the markets. The results reveal that suppliers' rankings based exclusively on aspects related to food risk differ from importers' actual choices determined by micro/macroeconomic features (price, production volume, and economic growth). The rankings obtained by the three proposed methods are not the same, but present certain similarities, with the ability to discern countries according to their level of food risk. The proposed methodology can be applied to support sourcing strategies. In the future, food safety considerations could have increased influence in importing decisions, which would involve further difficulties for low-income countries.Ministry of Science and Innovation (Spain) and European Commission-ERDF. 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