Modelo de decisión para el diseño conceptual de un sistema de suministro sostenible de energía para la Sede Leticia de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia

ilustraciones, gráficas, tablasThe decentralized model of energy generation has emerged as a solution to provide electricity to isolated areas, ensuring energy security and increasing coverage. This model frequently leads to a dependency on a unique energy source; thus, it is necessary to change the paradigm of energy generation by adding other more sustainable sources. Unfortunately, there is not a well-defined route to establish which energy sources should be linked and in what way, making this restructuring a very complex problem involving a decision-making process. Generally, decisions are made only considering the economic or technical dimensions, ignoring the other dimensions such as environmental, social, and political, which could provide a more contextualized perspective. The aim of this study is to develop and test a methodology to find an optimal arrangement of energy sources in a decentralized electricity production model considering all sustainability dimensions. A methodology as the proposed in this work can support the stakeholders during the planning stages of energy supply systems. The methodology was applied to a specific case in Colombia, the campus Amazonia of the Universidad Nacional de Colombia, located in Leticia, a municipality where on-site generators are employed due to the difficulty of access. As a result, the proposed methodology generated nine different scenarios of energy arrangements according to an evaluation of energy sources using a sustainability approach that considered context aspects along with a carefully selected set of indicators and stakeholders' preferences.El modelo descentralizado de generación de energía surgió como una solución para el suministro de energía en áreas aisladas, asegurando la seguridad energética e incrementando la cobertura. No obstante, este modelo frecuentemente conlleva a una dependencia a una única fuente de energía, por lo que es necesario cambiar el paradigma de la generación de energía añadiendo otras fuentes más sostenibles. Desafortunadamente, no existe una ruta definida para establecer cuales fuentes de energía deben ser agregadas y de qué manera, convirtiendo esta reestructuración en un problema muy complejo que involucra la toma de decisiones. Generalmente, estas decisiones se toman considerando aspectos económicos o técnicos, dejando de lado otras dimensiones como la ambiental, social y política, que podrían proporcionar una perspectiva más contextualizada. El objetivo de este estudio es desarrollar y probar una metodología que permita encontrar un arreglo óptimo de fuentes de energía en un modelo de producción de electricidad descentralizado teniendo en cuenta todas las dimensiones de la sostenibilidad. La metodología propuesta en este trabajo puede ayudar a los principales involucrados durante las fases de planeación de sistemas de suministro de energía. Esta metodología fue aplicada a un caso específico en Colombia, la sede Amazonas de la Universidad Nacional de Colombia, ubicada en Leticia, un municipio donde generadores in situ son empleados debido al difícil acceso. Como resultado, la metodología propuesta generó nueve escenarios diferentes de arreglos energéticos de acuerdo a una evaluación de fuentes de energía en un enfoque de sostenibilidad considerando aspectos de contexto junto a una selección cuidadosa de indicadores y las preferencias de las partes interesadas. (Texto tomado de la fuente).Incluye anexosMaestríaBiorefinerías y biorefinació

Multicriteria methodologies for the appraisal of smart grid projects when flexibility competes with grid expansion

The severe consequences expected due to the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events call for improving the environmental sustainability of our society. The electricity sector is pivotal in the path toward a climate-neutral society. Nowadays, the massive use of renewable energy sources requires that electricity demand follows energy production. Demand has to be flexible, as well as the renewable generation and the grid infrastructures. The power system has to assume a decentralised structure and integrate the transportation and cooling and heating sectors. All customers connected to the electrical grid have to contribute to the power system management and participate in the related markets. The power system has to become smart; all technical and market processes have to be digitalised to enable new functionalities and services. The power system transformation requires rethinking planning and operation practices to accommodate the changes and take advantage of the related opportunities. The novel features and services available in the active and flexible power system will influence the customers' daily habits; therefore, the impacts generated by planning initiatives will cross the power system borders by impacting society as a whole. Since the power system will be operated closer to its technical limits, it is crucial to enhance the management of uncertainties by the increased accuracy of load and generation forecast. This thesis addresses the ongoing power system transformation by focusing on the distribution system, which will face unprecedented changes. This thesis concerns novel approaches for appraising the project initiatives based on the use of the users' flexibility connected to the grid. Traditional appraisal tools are no longer effective; therefore, decision-makers have to be supported with tools capable of capturing the complexity of the future power system in which flexibility measures compete with grid expansion. In this thesis, an assessment framework for smart grid initiatives which combines the cost-benefit analysis and the multi-criteria analysis proposed. Based on international guidelines, this framework allows for a systematic and simultaneous assessment of tangible and the intangible impacts considering conflicting criteria. To complete the assessment framework, a novel methodology which combines Regret Theory and multi-criteria analysis is proposed. The proposed methodology represents one of the main contributions of this dissertation. It supports the decision-maker to identify the most valuable option by decomposing the complex decision-making problem of smart grid planning and rejecting personal biases by avoiding the need for defining the evaluation criteria relevance. However, the stakeholders’ perspective can be included in terms of constraints for the minimax optimisation problem. In conclusion, the contribution of the thesis is to provide decision-making support tools for strategical power system planning. The research activities described in this document have been aimed at supporting system operators and regulatory bodies by providing tools for smart grid project appraisal and improving the accuracy of power system studies considering the novel context features

Development of an Energy Planning Model Using Temporal Production Simulation and Enhanced NSGA-III

This paper presents an innovative model of Energy Planning Model which allows navigating the complexities of modern energy systems. Our model utilizes a combination of Temporal Production Simulation and an Enhanced Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm III to address the challenge associated with fluctuating energy demands and renewable sources integration. The model represents a significant advancement in energy planning due to its capacity to simulate energy production and consumption dynamics over time. The unique feature of the model is based on Temporal Production Simulation, meaning that the model is capable of accounting for hourly, daily, and seasonal fluctuations in energy supply and demand. Such temporal sensitivity is crucial for optimization in systems with high percentages of intermittent renewable sources, as existing planning solutions largely ignore such fluctuations. Another component of the model is the Enhanced NSGA-III algorithm that is uniquely tailored for the nature of multi-objective energy planning where one must balance their cost, environmental performance, and reliability. We have developed improvements to NSGAIII to enhance its efficiency when navigating the complex decision space associated with energy planning to reach faster convergence and to explore more optimal solutions. Methodologically, we use a combination of in-depth problem definition approach, advanced simulation, and algorithmic adjustments. We have validated our model against existing models and testing it in various scenarios to illustrate its superior ability to reach optimal energy plans based on efficiency, sustainability, and reliability under various conditions. Overall, through its unique incorporation of the Temporal Production Simulation and an improved optimization algorithm, the Energy Planning Model provides novel insights and practical decision support for policymakers and energy planners developed to reach the optimal sustainable solutions required for the high penetration of renewables

Project Finance and MCDM financial models: An application in renewable energy projects

Tesis por compendio[EN] Academics, managerial and policy making community reinforce that renewable energy investments are one of the most effective instruments to attain CO2 emission reduction targets set by the Kyoto Protocol and by the recent Paris Agreement signed at the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015 in which 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. The problem of financing Renewable Energy (RE) projects has become a crucial issue for private and public decision makers worldwide. Budget constraints from governments and limited bank lending capacities have led to a reconsideration of the traditional financial instruments in the RE sector. The lack of credit makes impossible for commercial banks to fund RE projects with traditional loans. Research on new financing techniques for RE projects, such as Project Finance (PF) has gained interest in recent years. PF is a recent technique applied in large investments projects. During the last decades of the 20th century new public private partnership schemes enabled large infrastructure, energy and environmental projects. In these sectors PF has been used to reduce cost agency conflicts and better risk management. There is a wide number of contributions underlying the relevance of RE, however there is a lack of research on the financial aspects of RE projects. This research aims to make several contributions. First, to provide a better understanding of the PF technique and its use in the RE sector. Second, to fill the gap of research on financial aspects of RE in the literature by reviewing contributions of MCDM to RE project evaluation from the investor's perspective. Third, we propose a MPDM Moderate Pessimism Decision Making model, which adds to the rational financial evaluation of investment opportunities a set of non-financial factors that affects the investor's decisions. Finally, within the illustrative example, we apply this multi-criteria decision making process to help banks to decide if they must join a project or not.[ES] Investigadores, comunidad empresarial y clase política destacan que la inversión en energías renovables es uno de los instrumentos más efectivos para alcanzar los objetivos de reducción de CO2 establecidos por el reciente acuerdo firmado en la conferencia de Paris (COP21) en diciembre de 2015, en el cual, 195 países adoptaron el primer acuerdo universal y jurídicamente vinculante de la historia. El problema de la financiación de los proyectos de energía renovable (RE) es un tema crucial para cualquier decisor público o privado. Las limitaciones presupuestarias de los gobiernos y la falta de crédito han provocado que se reconsideren los instrumentos de financiación en el sector de las RE, por lo tanto, la investigación en nuevas técnicas de financiamiento para los proyectos de RE, como Project Finance (PF) ha ganado interés en los últimos años. PF es una técnica que se aplica en grandes proyectos de inversión. A finales del Siglo XX, los nuevos esquemas de colaboración público-privadas han permitido llevar a cabo grandes proyectos de infraestructuras y de RE. En estos sectores, el PF se ha utilizado para reducir costes, conflictos y mitigar riesgos. Numerosas contribuciones científicas subrayan la importancia de la RE, sin embargo hay un vacío en la investigación sobre los aspectos financieros de los proyectos de RE. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo aportar varias contribuciones. En primer lugar, proporcionar una mejor comprensión de la técnica del PF y su uso en el sector de las RE. En segundo lugar, cubrir el vacío existente en la literatura sobre la investigación de los aspectos financieros de las RE mediante la revisión de las contribuciones sobre MCDM para la evaluación de los proyectos de RE desde el punto de vista del inversor. En tercer lugar, se propone un modelo MPDM (Moderate Pessimism Decision Making), el cual añade a la evaluación financiera racional de oportunidades de inversión, un conjunto de factores no financieros que afectan a las decisiones de los inversores. Finalmente, se aplica este modelo multicriterio de toma de decisiones para ayudar a decidir a los bancos si deben unirse al proyecto.[CA] Investigadors, comunitat empresarial i classe política, destaquen que la inversió en energies renovables és un dels instruments més efectius per assolir els objectius de reducció de les emissions de CO2 establerts pel recent acord signat a la conferència de Paris (COP21) al desembre de 2015, mitjançant el qual, 195 països van adoptar el primer acord universal i jurídicament vinculant de la història. El problema del finançament dels projectes d'energia renovable (RE) s'ha convertit en un tema crucial per a qualsevol decisor públics i privats. Les limitacions pressupostàries dels governs i La falta de crèdit han provocat que es reconsiderin els instruments de finançament en el sector de les RE, per tant, la investigació en noves tècniques de finançament per als projectes de RE, com el Project Finance (PF) ha guanyat interès en els últims anys. PF és una tècnica que s'aplica en grans projectes d'inversió. Durant les últimes dècades del Segle XX, els nous esquemes de col-laboració publico-privades han permès portar a terme grans projectes d'infraestructures i de RE. En aquests sectors, el PF s'ha utilitzat per reduir costos, conflictes i gestionar millor els riscos. Existeixen nombroses contribucions científiques que subratllen la importància de la RE, però hi ha un buit en la investigació pel que fa als aspectes financers dels projectes de RE. Aquesta tesis té com a objectiu aportar diverses contribucions. En primer lloc, proporcionar una millor comprensió de la tècnica del PF i el seu ús en el sector de les RE. En segon lloc, cobrir el buit existent en la literatura sobre la investigació dels aspectes financers de les RE mitjançant la revisió de les contribucions sobre MCDM per a l'avaluació dels projectes de RE des del punt de vista de l'inversor. En tercer lloc, es proposa un model MPDM Moderate Pessimism Decision Making, que afegeix a l'avaluació financera racional d'oportunitats d'inversió, un conjunt de factors no financers que afecten les decisions dels inversors. Finalment, mitjançant un exemple il-lustratiu, s'aplica aquest model multicriteri de presa de decisions per ajudar a decidir als bancs si han de unir-se al projecte.Mayor Vitoria, F. (2016). Project Finance and MCDM financial models: An application in renewable energy projects [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/73067TESISCompendi

Technoeconomic, environmental and multi criteria decision making investigations for optimisation of off-grid hybrid renewable energy system with green hydrogen production

The current study presents a comprehensive investigation of various energy system configurations for a remote village community in India with entirely renewable electricity. Excess electricity generated by the systems has been stored using two types of energy storage options: lithium-ion batteries and green hydrogen production through the electrolysers. The hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) configurations have been sized by minimising the levelised cost of energy (LCOE). In order to identify the best-performing HRES configuration, economic and environmental performance indicators has been analysed using the multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDM), TOPSIS. Among the evaluated system configurations, system-1 with a photovoltaic panel (PV) size of 310.24 kW, a wind turbine (WT) size of 690 kW, a biogas generator (BG) size of 100 kW, a battery (BAT) size of 174 kWh, an electrolyser (ELEC) size of 150 kW, a hydrogen tank (HT) size of 120 kg, and a converter (CONV) size of 106.24 kW has been found to be the best-performing system since it provides the highest relative closeness (RC) value (∼0.817) and also has the lowest fuel consumption rate of 2.31 kg/kWh. However, system-6 shows the highest amount of CO2 (143.97 kg/year) among all the studied system configurations. Furthermore, a detailed technical, economic, and environmental analysis has been conducted on the optimal HRES configuration. The minimum net present cost (NPC), LCOE, and cost of hydrogen (COH) for system 1 has been estimated to be $1,960,584,$0.44/kWh, and $22.3/kg, respectively