Imaging of a fluid injection process using geophysical data - A didactic example

In many subsurface industrial applications, fluids are injected into or withdrawn from a geologic formation. It is of practical interest to quantify precisely where, when, and by how much the injected fluid alters the state of the subsurface. Routine geophysical monitoring of such processes attempts to image the way that geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities or electrical conductivity, change through time and space and to then make qualitative inferences as to where the injected fluid has migrated. The more rigorous formulation of the time-lapse geophysical inverse problem forecasts how the subsurface evolves during the course of a fluid-injection application. Using time-lapse geophysical signals as the data to be matched, the model unknowns to be estimated are the multiphysics forward-modeling parameters controlling the fluid-injection process. Properly reproducing the geophysical signature of the flow process, subsequent simulations can predict the fluid migration and alteration in the subsurface. The dynamic nature of fluid-injection processes renders imaging problems more complex than conventional geophysical imaging for static targets. This work intents to clarify the related hydrogeophysical parameter estimation concepts

Estimating integrated water vapor trends from VLBI, GPS,and numerical weather models: sensitivity totropospheric parameterization

©2018. American Geophysical UnionIn this study, we estimate integrated water vapor (IWV) trends from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) and global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) data analysis, as well as from numerical weather models (NWMs). We study the impact of modeling and parameterization of the tropospheric delay from VLBI on IWV trends. We address the impact of the meteorological data source utilized to model the hydrostatic delay and the thermal deformation of antennas, as well as the mapping functions employed to project zenith delays to arbitrary directions. To do so, we derive a new mapping function, called Potsdam mapping functions based on NWM data and a new empirical model, GFZ‐PT. GFZ‐PT differs from previous realizations as it describes diurnal and subdiurnal in addition to long‐wavelength variations, it provides harmonic functions of ray tracing‐derived gradients, and it features robustly estimated rates. We find that alternating the mapping functions in VLBI data analysis yields no statistically significant differences in the IWV rates, whereas alternating the meteorological data source distorts the trends significantly. Moreover, we explore methods to extract IWV given a NWM. The rigorously estimated IWV rates from the different VLBI setups, GNSS, and ERA‐Interim are intercompared, and a good agreement is found. We find a quite good agreement comparing ERA‐Interim to VLBI and GNSS, separately, at the level of 75%.DFG, 255986470, GGOS-SIM-2: Simulation des "Global Geodetic Observing System

A new global gas hydrate budget based on numerical reaction-transport modeling and a novel parameterization of Holocene and Quaternary sedimentation

This study provides new estimates for the global methane hydrate inventory based on reaction-transport modeling [1]. A multi-1D model for POC degradation, gas hydrate formation and dissolution is presented. The model contains an open three-phase system of two solid (organic carbon, gas hydrates), three dissolved (methane, sulfates, inorganic carbon) and one gaseous (free methane) compounds. The reaction module builds upon the kinetic model of POC degradation [2] which considers a down-core decrease in reactivity of organic matter and the inhibition of methane production via accumulation of metabolites in sediment pore fluids. Global input grids have been compiled from a variety of oceanographic, geological and geophysical data sets including a parameterization of sedimentation rates in terms of water depth (Holocene) and distance to continents (Quaternary).The world's total gas hydrate inventory is estimated at 1.74 x 1013 m3 – ~2 x 1015 m3 CH4 (STP) or, equivalently, 8.3 – ~900 Gt of methane carbon. The first value refers to the present day conditions using the relatively low Holocene sedimentation rates; the second value corresponds to a scenario of higher Quaternary sedimentation rates along continental margins. This increase in the POC input could be explained by re-deposition process at the continental rise and slope due to erosion of continental shelf sediments during glacial times. Our results show that in-situ POC degradation is at present not an efficient hydrate forming process. Significant hydrate deposits are more likely to have formed at times of higher sedimentation during the Quaternary or/and as a consequence of active upward fluid transport

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a 3-Dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of Solar System and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2 (Schmidt et al. 2014), is used to simulate modern and 21st Century Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (slowly rotating to more rapidly rotating than modern Earth, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the Solar System such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn's moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents we can then expand its capabilities further to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past and those to be discovered in the future. We discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.Comment: Revisions since previous draft. Now submitted to Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie

Field-calibrated model of melt, refreezing, and runoff for polar ice caps : Application to Devon Ice Cap

Acknowledgments R.M.M. was supported by the Scottish Alliance for Geoscience, Environment and Society (SAGES). The field data collection contributed to the validation of the European Space Agency Cryosat mission and was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Canada, the Meteorological Service of Canada (CRYSYS program), the Polar Continental Shelf Project (an agency of Natural Resources Canada), and by UK Natural Environment Research Council consortium grant NER/O/S/2003/00620. Support for D.O.B. was provided by the Canadian Circumpolar Institute and the Climate Change Geoscience Program, Earth Sciences Sector, Natural Resources Canada (ESS contribution 20130371). Thanks are also due to the Nunavut Research Institute and the communities of Resolute Bay and Grise Fjord for permission to conduct fieldwork on Devon Ice Cap. M.J. Sharp, A. Gardner, F. Cawkwell, R. Bingham, S. Williamson, L. Colgan, J. Davis, B. Danielson, J. Sekerka, L. Gray, and J. Zheng are thanked for logistical support and field assistance during the data collection. We thank Ruzica Dadic, two other anonymous reviewers, and the Editor, Bryn Hubbard, for their helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper and which resulted in significant improvements.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Estimation of subsurface porosities and thermal conductivities of polygonal tundra by coupled inversion of electrical resistivity, temperature, and moisture content data

Studies indicate greenhouse gas emissions following permafrost thaw will amplify current rates of atmospheric warming, a process referred to as the permafrost carbon feedback. However, large uncertainties exist regarding the timing and magnitude of the permafrost carbon feedback, in part due to uncertainties associated with subsurface permafrost parameterization and structure. Development of robust parameter estimation methods for permafrost-rich soils is becoming urgent under accelerated warming of the Arctic. Improved parameterization of the subsurface properties in land system models would lead to improved predictions and a reduction of modeling uncertainty. In this work we set the groundwork for future parameter estimation (PE) studies by developing and evaluating a joint PE algorithm that estimates soil porosities and thermal conductivities from time series of soil temperature and moisture measurements and discrete in-time electrical resistivity measurements. The algorithm utilizes the Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis toolbox and coupled hydrological-thermal-geophysical modeling. We test the PE algorithm against synthetic data, providing a proof of concept for the approach. We use specified subsurface porosities and thermal conductivities and coupled models to set up a synthetic state, perturb the parameters, and then verify that our PE method is able to recover the parameters and synthetic state. To evaluate the accuracy and robustness of the approach we perform multiple tests for a perturbed set of initial starting parameter combinations. In addition, we varied types and quantities of data to better understand the optimal dataset needed to improve the PE method. The results of the PE tests suggest that using multiple types of data improve the overall robustness of the method. Our numerical experiments indicate that special care needs to be taken during the field experiment setup so that (1) the vertical distance between adjacent measurement sensors allows the signal variability in space to be resolved and (2) the longer time interval between resistivity snapshots allows signal variability in time to be resolved

Development of a Fast and Detailed Model of Urban-Scale Chemical and Physical Processing

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).A reduced form metamodel has been produced to simulate the effects of physical, chemical, and meteorological processing of highly reactive trace species in hypothetical urban areas, which is capable of efficiently simulating the urban concentration, surface deposition, and net mass flux of these species. A polynomial chaos expansion and the probabilistic collocation method have been used for the metamodel, and its coefficients were fit so as to be applicable under a broad range of present-day and future conditions. The inputs upon which this metamodel have been formed are based on a combination of physical properties (average temperature, diurnal temperature range, date, and latitude), anthropogenic properties (patterns and amounts of emissions), and the surrounding environment (background concentrations of certain species). Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) of the inputs were used to run a detailed parent chemical and physical model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx), thousands of times. Outputs from these runs were used in turn to both determine the coefficients of and test the precision of the metamodel, as compared with the detailed parent model. The deviations between the metamodel and the parent mode for many important species (O3, CO, NOx, and BC) were found to have a weighted RMS error less than 10% in all cases, with many of the specific cases having a weighted RMS error less than 1%. Some of the other important species (VOCs, PAN, OC, and sulfate aerosol) usually have their weighted RMS error less than 10% as well, except for a small number of cases. These cases, in which the highly non-linear nature of the processing is too large for the third order metamodel to give an accurate fit, are explained in terms of the complexity and non-linearity of the physical, chemical, and meteorological processing. In addition, for those species in which good fits have not been obtained, the program has been designed in such a way that values which are not physically realistic are flagged. Sensitivity tests have been performed, to observe the response of the 16 metamodels (4 different meteorologies and 4 different urban types) to a broad set of potential inputs. These results were compared with observations of ozone, CO, formaldehyde, BC, and PM10 from a few well observed urban areas, and in most of the cases, the output distributions were found to be within ranges of the observations. Overall, a set of efficient and robust metamodels have been generated which are capable of simulating the effects of various physical, chemical, and meteorological processing, and capable of determining the urban concentrations, mole fractions, and fluxes of species, important to human health and the climate.Federal Agencies and industries that sponsor the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change