The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1.

BACKGROUND: The End TB Strategy and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intimately linked by their common targets and approaches. SDG 1 aims to end extreme poverty and expand social protection coverage by 2030. Achievement of SDG 1 is likely to affect the tuberculosis epidemic through a range of pathways. We estimate the reduction in global tuberculosis incidence that could be obtained by reaching SDG 1. METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework linking key indicators of SDG 1 progress to tuberculosis incidence via well described risk factor pathways and populated it with data from the SDG data repository and the WHO tuberculosis database for 192 countries. Correlations and mediation analyses informed the strength of the association between the SDG 1 subtargets and tuberculosis incidence, resulting in a simplified framework for modelling. The simplified framework linked key indicators for SDG 1 directly to tuberculosis incidence. We applied an exponential decay model based on linear associations between SDG 1 indicators and tuberculosis incidence to estimate tuberculosis incidence in 2035. FINDINGS: Ending extreme poverty resulted in a reduction in global incidence of tuberculosis of 33·4% (95% credible interval 15·5-44·5) by 2035 and expanding social protection coverage resulted in a reduction in incidence of 76·1% (45·2-89·9) by 2035; both pathways together resulted in a reduction in incidence of 84·3% (54·7-94·9). INTERPRETATION: Full achievement of SDG 1 could have a substantial effect on the global burden of tuberculosis. Cross-sectoral approaches that promote poverty reduction and social protection expansion will be crucial complements to health interventions, accelerating progress towards the End TB targets. FUNDING: World Health Organization

Wing and Fuselage Optimization Considering Alternative Material

This study is a sensitivity analysis to compare weight benefits for a transport aircraft airframe from potential mechanical property enhancements of CFRP (Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic) Laminate and Aluminum Alloy. The computational framework is based on a simplified skin-stringer-frame/rib configuration to model the fuselage and the wings of a generic narrow and wide body jet transport. Simple (Strength of Materials) mechanics were used to predict the stresses in the skin and stringers. Strength allowables and panel buckling equations are used in conjunction with an iterative optimizer to calculate the structural airframe weight. The baseline materials include 7075-T6 Aluminum Alloy and a fictitious intermediate modulus carbon epoxy. For the CFRP material, the optimized weight results show Open Hole compression enhancement produces the most weight benefit. The Fatigue strength is the most sensitive material property for the baseline Aluminum Alloy structure. The results also indicate that the current CFRP laminate minimum gauge limits weight reduction from potential material property enhancements especially on the small jet transport

On the equal displacement aproximation for mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings

The equal displacement approximation is a well-known procedure for estimating the non-linear behavior of structures subjected to earthquake ground motions. This procedure plays a significant role in current seismic design, since it constitutes the basic assumption for defining strength reduction factors. In this paper, calculation of the performance point based on this rule is used to estimate engineering demand parameters such as those obtained by advanced probabilistic non-linear dynamic analysis, NLDA. We present a modification to the classic approach, to improve the predictability of the equal displacement rule. Uncertainties in seismic action and structural properties are considered. Mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings will be used as a testbed. To obtain a representative sample of buildings for statistical analysis, we describe the development through implementation of a numerical tool for calculating probabilistic NLDA. This tool, which is expected to evolve into interoperable software for assessing the seismic risk of structures, is developed within the framework of the KaIROS project. The results presented in this paper could be used to estimate the seismic risk of structures in a very simplified manner.Postprint (published version

Fatigue evaluation in maintenance and assembly operations by digital human simulation

Virtual human techniques have been used a lot in industrial design in order to consider human factors and ergonomics as early as possible. The physical status (the physical capacity of virtual human) has been mostly treated as invariable in the current available human simulation tools, while indeed the physical capacity varies along time in an operation and the change of the physical capacity depends on the history of the work as well. Virtual Human Status is proposed in this paper in order to assess the difficulty of manual handling operations, especially from the physical perspective. The decrease of the physical capacity before and after an operation is used as an index to indicate the work difficulty. The reduction of physical strength is simulated in a theoretical approach on the basis of a fatigue model in which fatigue resistances of different muscle groups were regressed from 24 existing maximum endurance time (MET) models. A framework based on digital human modeling technique is established to realize the comparison of physical status. An assembly case in airplane assembly is simulated and analyzed under the framework. The endurance time and the decrease of the joint moment strengths are simulated. The experimental result in simulated operations under laboratory conditions confirms the feasibility of the theoretical approach

Simplified model for the non-linear behaviour representation of reinforced concrete columns under biaxial bending

In the present paper a simplified model is proposed for the force-deformation behaviour of reinforced concrete members under biaxial loading combined with axial force. The starting point for the model development was an existing fixed-length plastic hinge element model that accounts for the non-linear hysteretic behaviour at the element end-sections, characterized by trilinear moment-curvature laws. To take into account the section biaxial behaviour, the existing model was adopted for both orthogonal lateral directions and an interaction function was introduced to couple the hysteretic response of both directions. To calibrate the interaction function it were used numerical results, obtained from fibre models, and experimental results. For the parameters identification, non-linear optimization approaches were adopted, namely: the gradient based methods followed by the genetic, evolutionary and nature-inspired algorithms. Finally, the simplified non-linear model proposed is validated through the analytical simulation of biaxial test results carried out in full-scale reinforced concrete columns

Reversible magnetomechanical collapse: virtual touching and detachment of rigid inclusions in a soft elastic matrix

Soft elastic composite materials containing particulate rigid inclusions in a soft elastic matrix are candidates for developing soft actuators or tunable damping devices. The possibility to reversibly drive the rigid inclusions within such a composite together to a close-to-touching state by an external stimulus would offer important benefits. Then, a significant tuning of the mechanical properties could be achieved due to the resulting mechanical hardening. For a long time, it has been argued whether a virtual touching of the embedded magnetic particles with subsequent detachment can actually be observed in real materials, and if so, whether the process is reversible. Here, we present experimental results that demonstrate this phenomenon in reality. Our system consists of two paramagnetic nickel particles embedded at finite initial distance in a soft elastic polymeric gel matrix. Magnetization in an external magnetic field tunes the magnetic attraction between the particles and drives the process. We quantify the scenario by different theoretical tools, i.e., explicit analytical calculations in the framework of linear elasticity theory, a projection onto simplified dipole-spring models, as well as detailed finite-element simulations. From these different approaches, we conclude that in our case the cycle of virtual touching and detachment shows hysteretic behavior due to the mutual magnetization between the paramagnetic particles. Our results are important for the design and construction of reversibly tunable mechanical damping devices. Moreover, our projection on dipole-spring models allows the formal connection of our description to various related systems, e.g., magnetosome filaments in magnetotactic bacteria.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure