Integrated aircraft scheduling problem: An auto-adapting algorithm to find robust aircraft assignments for large flight plans

The overall airline scheduling process involves hierarchical steps starting with the network design and ending with crew assignment. Aircraft routing is especially important with respect to timing and costs for an airline. In this contribution, we focus on aircraft routing where aircraft are assigned to flight legs further considering maintenance requirements. We developed and implemented algorithms that extend the aircraft routing problem (ARP) by including profit and robustness. The latter objective is important as the dependencies of flights and airlines increases and deviations to the original time plan as unexpected events like volcano eruptions or heavy weather-related issues are difficult to handle. A robust aircraft routing ensures that unforeseen events have less impact. The results are compared to current state-of-the-art solutions. We developed a test instance-generator to create specific problems and build a library for future benchmarking tests

OPTIMIZATION APPROACHES TO AIRLINE INDUSTRY CHALLENGES: Airline Schedule Planning and Recovery

The airline industry has a long history of developing and applying optimization approaches to their myriad of scheduling problems, including designing flight schedules that maximize profitability while satisfying rules related to aircraft maintenance; generating cost-minimizing, feasible work schedules for pilots and flight attendants; and identifying implementable, low-cost changes to aircraft and crew schedules as disruptions render the planned schedule inoperable. The complexities associated with these problems are immense, including long-and short-term planning horizons; and multiple resources including aircraft, crews, and passengers, all operating over shared airspace and airport capacity. Optimization approaches have played an important role in overcoming this complexity and providing effective aircraft and crew schedules. Historical optimization-based approaches, however, often involve a sequential process, first generating aircraft schedules and then generating crew schedules. Decisions taken in the first steps of the process limit those that are possible in subsequent steps, resulting in overall plans that, while feasible, are typically sub-optimal. To mitigate the myopic effects of sequential solutions, researchers have developed extended models that begin to integrate som

Empirical investigations of properties of robust aircraft routing models

The airline schedule planning process is an important component of airline operations, and it involves considerably complex problems. This research focuses on the aircraft routing phase. We introduce the concept of robustness in aircraft routing problems, and find solutions that can stand uncertainty. We categorize the delays in flight operations into two components – independent delay and propagated delay. In the data driven approach, independent delay can be regarded as constant, but propagated delay can be worked on. An example of aircraft swap is given to show that aircraft routing can potentially reduce the flight delays. To solve robust aircraft routing problems, we propose a list of formulations. They are in three categories – Lan, Clarke, Barnhart’s approach, chance-constrained programming approach, and extreme value approach. We conduct experiments with two airline networks – a 50-flight network and a 165-flight network. The K-fold cross validation approach is incorporated into aircraft routing problems to eliminate overfitting. According to the three evaluation metrics – on time performance, average total propagated delay and passenger disruptions, several good formulations are identified, which are recommended for airline schedule planners. We also explain the reasons behind the solution differences

Robust airline schedule planning : review and development of optimization approaches

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Operations Research Center, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (p. 87-89).Major airlines aim to generate schedules that maximize profit potential and satisfy constraints involving flight schedule design, fleet assignment, aircraft maintenance routing and crew scheduling. Almost all aircraft and crew schedule optimization models assume that flights, aircraft, crews, and passengers operate as planned. Thus, airlines typically construct plans that maximize revenue or minimize cost based on the assumption that every flight departs and arrives as planned. Because flight delays and cancellations result from numerous causes, including severe weather conditions, unexpected aircraft and crew failures, and congestion at the airport and in the airspace, this deterministic, optimistic scenario rarely, if ever, occurs. In fact, schedule plans are frequently disrupted and airlines often incur significant costs in addition to those originally planned. To address this issue, an approach is to design schedules that are robust to schedule disruptions and attempt to minimize realized, and not planned, costs. In this research, we review recovery approaches and robustness criteria in the context of airline schedule planning. We suggest new approaches for designing fleet assignments that facilitate recovery operations, and we present models to generate plans that allow for more robust crew operations, based on the idea of critical crew connections. We also examine the impact on robustness of new scheduling practices to debank hub airports.by Claudine Biova Agbokou.S.M

Resource-Constrained Airline Ground Operations: Optimizing Schedule Recovery under Uncertainty

Die zentrale europäische Verkehrsflusssteuerung (englisch: ATFM) und Luftverkehrsgesellschaften (englisch: Airlines) verwenden unterschiedliche Paradigmen für die Priorisierung von Flügen. Während ATFM jeden Flug als individuelle Einheit betrachtet, um die Kapazitätsauslastung aller Sektoren zu steuern, bewerten Airlines jeden Flug als Teilabschnitt eines Flugzeugumlaufes, eines Crew-Einsatzplanes bzw. einer Passagierroute. Infolgedessen sind ATFM-Zeitfenster für Flüge in Kapazitätsengpässen oft schlecht auf die Ressourcenabhängigkeiten innerhalb eines Airline-Netzwerks abgestimmt, sodass die Luftfahrzeug-Bodenabfertigung – als Verbindungselement bzw. Bruchstelle zwischen einzelnen Flügen im Netzwerk – als Hauptverursacher primärer und reaktionärer Verspätungen in Europa gilt. Diese Dissertation schließt die Lücke zwischen beiden Paradigmen, indem sie ein integriertes Optimierungsmodell für die Flugplanwiederherstellung entwickelt. Das Modell ermöglicht Airlines die Priorisierung zwischen Flügen, die von einem ATFM-Kapazitätsengpass betroffen sind, und berücksichtigt dabei die begrenzte Verfügbarkeit von Abfertigungsressourcen am Flughafen. Weiterhin werden verschiedene Methoden untersucht, um die errechneten Flugprioritäten vertraulich innerhalb von kooperativen Lösungsverfahren mit externen Stakeholdern austauschen zu können. Das integrierte Optimierungsmodell ist eine Erweiterung des Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problems und integriert das Bodenprozessmanagement von Luftfahrzeugen mit bestehenden Ansätzen für die Steuerung von Flugzeugumläufen, Crew-Einsatzplänen und Passagierrouten. Das Modell soll der Verkehrsleitzentrale einer Airline als taktische Entscheidungsunterstützung dienen und arbeitet dabei mit einer Vorlaufzeit von mehr als zwei Stunden bis zur nächsten planmäßigen Verkehrsspitze. Systemimmanente Unsicherheiten über Prozessabweichungen und mögliche zukünftige Störungen werden in der Optimierung in Form von stochastischen Prozesszeiten und mittels des neu-entwickelten Konzeptes stochastischer Verspätungskostenfunktionen berücksichtigt. Diese Funktionen schätzen die Kosten der Verspätungsausbreitung im Airline-Netzwerk flugspezifisch auf der Basis historischer Betriebsdaten ab, sodass knappe Abfertigungsressourcen am Drehkreuz der Airline den kritischsten Flugzeugumläufen zugeordnet werden können. Das Modell wird innerhalb einer Fallstudie angewendet, um die taktischen Kosten einer Airline in Folge von verschiedenen Flugplanstörungen zu minimieren. Die Analyseergebnisse zeigen, dass die optimale Lösung sehr sensitiv in Bezug auf die Art, den Umfang und die Intensität einer Störung reagiert und es folglich keine allgemeingültige optimale Flugplanwiederherstellung für verschiedene Störungen gibt. Umso dringender wird der Einsatz eines flexiblen und effizienten Optimierungsverfahrens empfohlen, welches die komplexen Ressourcenabhängigkeiten innerhalb eines Airline-Netzwerks berücksichtigt und kontextspezifische Lösungen generiert. Um die Effizienz eines solchen Optimierungsverfahrens zu bestimmen, sollte das damit gewonnene Steuerungspotenzial im Vergleich zu aktuell genutzten Verfahren über einen längeren Zeitraum untersucht werden. Aus den in dieser Dissertation analysierten Störungsszenarien kann geschlussfolgert werden, dass die flexible Standplatzvergabe, Passagier-Direkttransporte, beschleunigte Abfertigungsverfahren und die gezielte Verspätung von Abflügen sehr gute Steuerungsoptionen sind und während 95 Prozent der Saison Anwendung finden könnten, um geringe bis mittlere Verspätungen von Einzelflügen effizient aufzulösen. Bei Störungen, die zu hohen Verspätungen im gesamten Airline-Netzwerk führen, ist eine vollständige Integration aller in Betracht gezogenen Steuerungsoptionen erforderlich, um eine erhebliche Reduzierung der taktischen Kosten zu erreichen. Dabei ist insbesondere die Möglichkeit, Ankunfts- und Abflugzeitfenster zu tauschen, von hoher Bedeutung für eine Airline, um die ihr zugewiesenen ATFM-Verspätungen auf die Flugzeugumläufe zu verteilen, welche die geringsten Einschränkungen im weiteren Tagesverlauf aufweisen. Die Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten im nachgelagerten Airline-Netzwerk zeigt, dass eine Optimierung auf Basis deterministischer Verspätungskosten die taktischen Kosten für eine Airline überschätzen kann. Die optimale Flugplanwiederherstellung auf Basis stochastischer Verspätungskosten unterscheidet sich deutlich von der deterministischen Lösung und führt zu weniger Passagierumbuchungen am Drehkreuz. Darüber hinaus ist das vorgeschlagene Modell in der Lage, Flugprioritäten und Airline-interne Kostenwerte für ein zugewiesenes ATFM-Zeitfenster zu bestimmen. Die errechneten Flugprioritäten können dabei vertraulich in Form von optimalen Verspätungszeitfenstern pro Flug an das ATFM übermittelt werden, während die Definition von internen Kostenwerten für ATFM-Zeitfenster die Entwicklung von künftigen Handelsmechanismen zwischen Airlines unterstützen kann.:1 Introduction 2 Status Quo on Airline Operations Management 3 Schedule Recovery Optimization Approach with Constrained Resources 4 Implementation and Application 5 Case Study Analysis 6 ConclusionsAir Traffic Flow Management (ATFM) and airlines use different paradigms for the prioritisation of flights. While ATFM regards each flight as individual entity when it controls sector capacity utilization, airlines evaluate each flight as part of an aircraft rotation, crew pairing and passenger itinerary. As a result, ATFM slot regulations during capacity constraints are poorly coordinated with the resource interdependencies within an airline network, such that the aircraft turnaround -- as the connecting element or breaking point between individual flights in an airline schedule -- is the major contributor to primary and reactionary delays in Europe. This dissertation bridges the gap between both paradigms by developing an integrated schedule recovery model that enables airlines to define their optimal flight priorities for schedule disturbances arising from ATFM capacity constraints. These priorities consider constrained airport resources and different methods are studied how to communicate them confidentially to external stakeholders for the usage in collaborative solutions, such as the assignment of reserve resources or ATFM slot swapping. The integrated schedule recovery model is an extension of the Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem and integrates aircraft turnaround operations with existing approaches for aircraft, crew and passenger recovery. The model is supposed to provide tactical decision support for airline operations controllers at look-ahead times of more than two hours prior to a scheduled hub bank. System-inherent uncertainties about process deviations and potential future disruptions are incorporated into the optimization via stochastic turnaround process times and the novel concept of stochastic delay cost functions. These functions estimate the costs of delay propagation and derive flight-specific downstream recovery capacities from historical operations data, such that scarce resources at the hub airport can be allocated to the most critical turnarounds. The model is applied to the case study of a network carrier that aims at minimizing its tactical costs from several disturbance scenarios. The case study analysis reveals that optimal recovery solutions are very sensitive to the type, scope and intensity of a disturbance, such that there is neither a general optimal solution for different types of disturbance nor for disturbances of the same kind. Thus, airlines require a flexible and efficient optimization method, which considers the complex interdependencies among their constrained resources and generates context-specific solutions. To determine the efficiency of such an optimization method, its achieved network resilience should be studied in comparison to current procedures over longer periods of operation. For the sample of analysed scenarios in this dissertation, it can be concluded that stand reallocation, ramp direct services, quick-turnaround procedures and flight retiming are very efficient recovery options when only a few flights obtain low and medium delays, i.e., 95% of the season. For disturbances which induce high delay into the entire airline network, a full integration of all considered recovery options is required to achieve a substantial reduction of tactical costs. Thereby, especially arrival and departure slot swapping are valuable options for the airline to redistribute its assigned ATFM delays onto those aircraft that have the least critical constraints in their downstream rotations. The consideration of uncertainties in the downstream airline network reveals that an optimization based on deterministic delay costs may overestimate the tactical costs for the airline. Optimal recovery solutions based on stochastic delay costs differ significantly from the deterministic approach and are observed to result in less passenger rebooking at the hub airport. Furthermore, the proposed schedule recovery model is able to define flight priorities and internal slot values for the airline. Results show that the priorities can be communicated confidentially to ATFM by using the concept of 'Flight Delay Margins', while slot values may support future inter-airline slot trading mechanisms.:1 Introduction 2 Status Quo on Airline Operations Management 3 Schedule Recovery Optimization Approach with Constrained Resources 4 Implementation and Application 5 Case Study Analysis 6 Conclusion

Stochastic Delay Cost Functions to Estimate Delay Propagation under Uncertainty

We provide a mathematical formulation of flight-specific delay cost functions that enables a detailed tactical consideration of how a given flight delay will interact with all downstream constraints in the respective aircraft rotation. These functions are reformulated into stochastic delay cost functions to respect conditional probabilities and increasing uncertainty related to more distant operational constraints. Conditional probabilities are learned from historical operations data, such that typical delay propagation patterns can support the flight prioritization process as a part of tactical airline schedule recovery. A case study compares the impact of deterministic and stochastic cost functions on optimal recovery decisions during an airport constraint. We find that deterministic functions systematically overestimate potential disruption costs as well as optimal schedule recovery costs in high delay situations. Thus, an optimisation based on stochastic costs outperforms the deterministic approach by up to 15%, as it reveals ’hidden’ downstream recovery potentials. This results in different slot allocations and in fewer passengers missing their connections

Development of stochastic delay cost functions

When a disturbance cannot be absorbed by schedule buffer, the tactical schedule recovery process of an airline prioritises between flights. This considers the cost of delay and may result in a reallocation of scarce airport resources during turnaround. Delay cost reference values do not differentiate between specific flights but rather aircraft types. This article presents a method to develop flight-specific delay cost functions, which consider inherent absorption capacities and downstream uncertainties. Delay propagation trees are used to model airline resource interdependencies and derives the associated cost of downstream delay cost-drivers from dependent probabilities using operational data. In a case study setting, the resulting stochastic cost functions are compared against reference values per aircraft type and deterministic step-cost functions per flight

Weighted Time-Band Approximation Model for Flight Operations Recovery considering Simplex Group Cycle Approaches in China

The time-band approximation model for flight operations recovery following disruption (Bard, Yu, Arguello, IIE Transactions, 33, 931–947, 2001) is constructed by partitioning the recovery period into time bands and by approximating the delay costs associated with the possible flight connections. However, for disruptions occurring in a hub-and-spoke network, a large number of possible flight connections are constructed throughout the entire flight schedule, so as to obtain the approximate optimal. In this paper, we show the application of the simplex group cycle approach to hub-and-spoke airlines in China, along with the related weighted threshold necessary for controlling the computation time and the flight disruption scope and depth. Subsequently, we present the weighted time-band approximation model for flight operations recovery, which incorporates the simplex group cycle approach. Simple numerical experiments using actual data from Air China show that the weighted time-band approximation model is feasible, and the results of stochastic experiments using actual data from Sichuan Airlines show that the flight disruption and computation time are controlled by the airline operations control center, which aims to achieve a balance between the flight disruption scope and depth, computation time, and recovery value