Fuzzy investment decision support for brownfield redevelopment

Tato disertační práce se zaměřuje na problematiku investování a podporu rozhodování pomocí moderních metod. Zejména pokud jde o analýzu, hodnocení a výběr tzv. brownfieldů pro jejich redevelopment (revitalizaci). Cílem této práce je navrhnout univerzální metodu, která usnadní rozhodovací proces. Proces rozhodování je v praxi komplikován též velkým počet relevantních parametrů ovlivňujících konečné rozhodnutí. Navržená metoda je založena na využití fuzzy logiky, modelování, statistické analýzy, shlukové analýzy, teorie grafů a na sofistikovaných metodách sběru a zpracování informací. Nová metoda umožňuje zefektivnit proces analýzy a porovnávání alternativních investic a přesněji zpracovat velký objem informací. Ve výsledku tak bude zmenšen počet prvků množiny nejvhodnějších alternativních investic na základě hierarchie parametrů stanovených investorem.This dissertation focuses on decision making, investing and brownfield redevelopment. Especially on the analysis, evaluation and selection of previously used real estates suitable for commercial use. The objective of this dissertation is to design a method that facilitates the decision making process with many possible alternatives and large number of relevant parameters influencing the decision. The proposed method is based on the use of fuzzy logic, modeling, statistic analysis, cluster analysis, graph theory and sophisticated methods of information collection and processing. New method allows decision makers to process much larger amount of information and evaluate possible investment alternatives efficiently.

Export diversification and resource-based industrialization: the case of natural gas

For resource-rich economies, primary commodity specialization has often been considered to be detrimental to growth. Accordingly, export diversification policies centered on resource-based industries have long been advocated as effective ways to moderate the large variability of export revenues. This paper discusses the applicability of a mean-variance portfolio approach to design these strategies and proposes some modifications aimed at capturing the key features of resource processing industries (presence of scale economies and investment lumpiness). These modifications help make the approach more plausible for use in resource-rich countries. An application to the case of natural gas is then discussed using data obtained from Monte Carlo simulations of a calibrated empirical model. Lastly, the proposed framework is put to work to evaluate the performances of the diversification strategies implemented in a set of nine gas-rich economies. These results are then used to formulate some policy recommendations

Application of Supercomputer Technologies for Simulation of Socio-Economic Systems

To date, an extensive experience has been accumulated in investigation of problems related to quality, assessment of management systems, modeling of economic system sustainability. The studies performed have created a basis for formation of a new research area — Economics of Quality. Its tools allow to use opportunities of model simulation for construction of the mathematical models adequately reflecting the role of quality in natural, technical, social regularities of functioning of the complex socioeconomic systems. Extensive application and development of models, and also system modeling with use of supercomputer technologies, on our deep belief, will bring the conducted researches of social and economic systems to essentially new level. Moreover, the current scientific research makes a significant contribution to model simulation of multi-agent social systems and that isn’t less important, it belongs to the priority areas in development of science and technology in our country. This article is devoted to the questions of supercomputer technologies application in public sciences, first of all, — regarding technical realization of the large-scale agent-focused models (AFM). The essence of this tool is that owing to increase in power of computers it became possible to describe the behavior of many separate fragments of a difficult system, as social and economic systems represent. The article also deals with the experience of foreign scientists and practicians in launching the AFM on supercomputers, and also the example of AFM developed in CEMI RAS, stages and methods of effective calculating kernel display of multi-agent system on architecture of a modern supercomputer will be analyzed. The experiments on the basis of model simulation on forecasting the population of St. Petersburg according to three scenarios as one of the major factors influencing the development of social and economic system and quality of life of the population are presented in the conclusion

An artificial intelligence and NLP based Islamic FinTech model combining Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan for countering the adverse impact of COVID 19 on SMEs and individuals

Pursose: The ongoing Corona virus (COVID 19) pandemic has already impacted almost everyone across the globe. The focus has now shifted from spread of the disease to the economic consequences it will bring to the society. The shortage of production will result into the shortage of supply and consequently will end as loss of jobs and employment for millions of people around the world. Two of the most important section of our society i.e., daily wage laborers and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) will have to bear the major burnt of this crisis. The proposed integrated Artificial Intelligence and NLP based Islamic FinTech Model combining Zakat (Islamic tax) and Qardh-Al-Hasan (benevolent loan) can help the economy to minimize the adverse impact of COVID 19 on individuals and SMEs. Design/Methodology/Approach: The present study explores the possibility of Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan as a financing method to fight the adverse impact of Corona virus on poor individuls and SMEs. It provides the solution by proposing an Artificial Intelligence and NLP based Islamic FinTech Model combining Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan. Findings: The findings of the study reveals that Islamic finance has immense potential to fight any kind of situation/pandemic. Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan, if combined together can prove to be a deadly combination to fight the adverse effect of COVID 19. Practical Implications: To be used as an effective way to support individuals and SMEs in the period during and after the pandemic of COVID 19. Originality/value: There is no study combining Zakat and Qardh Al-Hasan to fight the adverse effect of poor individuals and SMEs. The study will contribute massively to the existing literature and will help the government and civil societies in fighting the economic impact of COVID 19 on individuals and SMEs.peer-reviewe

Special Libraries, February 1978

Volume 69, Issue 2https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/sla_sl_1978/1001/thumbnail.jp

Production Chains in an Interregional Framework: Identification by Means of Average Propagation Lengths

When linkages between industries are studied from the perspective of production chains, sequencing is important. In this respect, both the strength of the linkages and the distance between industries are relevant. Distance is measured by the average propagation length, defined as the average number of steps it takes a stimulus in one industry to propagate and affect another industry. Using the 1985 intercountry input-output table for six European countries, we present three applications. These are, visualizing the production structure by graphing its production chains, analyzing intercountry linkages between industries, and determining the role that each country plays within the system

On‐line student feedback: A pilot study

This paper reports on the outcomes of two experimental trials of the use of on‐line questionnaires to assess student satisfaction with courses at the London School of Economics and Political Science. In the first year, eighteen course modules were selected from three departments, surveying a total of 1,100 student places. Students on ten of the courses were invited to complete the ‘experimental’ on‐line survey and the remainder were invited to complete the paper‐based questionnaires which have been in use for several years. In the second year, the scale of the experiment was increased, to include forty‐six courses across seven departments. Response rates were compared and possible barriers to completion of the on‐line questionnaire were considered Whilst electronic monitoring indicated that 95 per cent (first trial) and 80 per cent (second trial) of those contacted for the on‐line survey opened the introductory email, only 23 per cent (first trial) and 27 per cent (second trial) completed the on‐line survey, compared with a 60 per cent response rate on the paper‐based survey. The on‐line response is also slightly lower than that achieved by postal surveys of LSE students (30–50 per cent response rates). Whilst some technical difficulties could have acted as a barrier, motivation appeared to be the main barrier. Initial results from the second trial, which included two reminder emails and some small incentives, show that it is possible to increase the response rate, but this may still be unacceptably low for staff whose promotion prospects may be affected by results. A third trial has been proposed, looking at ways in which the process as a whole could be amended, to overcome the problem of ‘survey fatigue’ that the current system faces

Cognition and framing in sequential bargaining for gains and losses

Noncooperative game-theoretic models of sequential bargaining give an underpinning to cooperative solution concepts derived from axioms, and have proved useful in applications (see Osborne and Rubinstein 1990). But experimental studies of sequential bargaining with discounting have generally found systematic deviations between the offers people make and perfect equilibrium offers derived from backward induction (e.g., Ochs and Roth 1989). We have extended this experimental literature in two ways. First, we used a novel software system to record the information subjects looked at while they bargained. Measuring patterns of information search helped us draw inferences about how people think, testing as directly as possible whether people use backward induction to compute offers. Second, we compared bargaining over gains that shrink over time (because of discounting) to equivalent bargaining over losses that expand over time. In the games we studied, two players bargain by making a finite number of alternating offers. A unique subgame-perfect equilibrium can be computed by backward induction. The induction begins in the last period and works forward. Our experiments use a three-round game with a pie of $5.00 and a 50-percent discount factor (so the pie shrinks to$2.50 and $1.25 in the second and third rounds). In the perfect equilibrium the first player offers the second player$1.25 and keeps $3.75