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Identification and separation of DNA mixtures using peak area information (Updated version of Statistical Research Paper No. 25)
We introduce a new methodology, based upon probabilistic expert systems, for analysing forensic identification problems involving DNA mixture traces using quantitative peak area information. Peak area is modelled with conditional Gaussian distributions. The expert system can be used for ascertaining whether individuals, whose profiles have been measured, have contributed to the mixture, but also to predict DNA profiles of unknown contributors by separating the mixture into its individual components. The potential of our probabilistic methodology is illustrated on case data examples and compared with alternative approaches. The advantages are that identification and separation issues can be handled in a unified way within a single probabilistic model and the uncertainty associated with the analysis is quantified. Further work, required to bring the methodology to a point where it could be applied to the routine analysis of casework, is discussed
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Identification and separation of DNA mixtures using peak area information
Sensitivity of inferences in forensic genetics to assumptions about founding genes
Many forensic genetics problems can be handled using structured systems of
discrete variables, for which Bayesian networks offer an appealing practical
modeling framework, and allow inferences to be computed by probability
propagation methods. However, when standard assumptions are violated--for
example, when allele frequencies are unknown, there is identity by descent or
the population is heterogeneous--dependence is generated among founding genes,
that makes exact calculation of conditional probabilities by propagation
methods less straightforward. Here we illustrate different methodologies for
assessing sensitivity to assumptions about founders in forensic genetics
problems. These include constrained steepest descent, linear fractional
programming and representing dependence by structure. We illustrate these
methods on several forensic genetics examples involving criminal
identification, simple and complex disputed paternity and DNA mixtures.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS235 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Computational aspects of DNA mixture analysis
Statistical analysis of DNA mixtures is known to pose computational
challenges due to the enormous state space of possible DNA profiles. We propose
a Bayesian network representation for genotypes, allowing computations to be
performed locally involving only a few alleles at each step. In addition, we
describe a general method for computing the expectation of a product of
discrete random variables using auxiliary variables and probability propagation
in a Bayesian network, which in combination with the genotype network allows
efficient computation of the likelihood function and various other quantities
relevant to the inference. Lastly, we introduce a set of diagnostic tools for
assessing the adequacy of the model for describing a particular dataset
Optimal scheduling and fair servicepolicy for STDMA in underwater networks with acoustic communications
In this work, a multi-hop string network with a single sink node is analyzed. A periodic optimal scheduling for TDMA operation that considers the characteristic long propagation delay of the underwater acoustic channel is presented. This planning of transmissions is obtained with the help of a new geometrical method based on a 2D lattice in the space-time domain. In order to
evaluate the performance of this optimal scheduling, two service policies have been compared: FIFO and Round-Robin. Simulation results, including achievable throughput, packet delay, and queue length, are shown. The network fairness has also been quantified with the Gini index
Scalable Bayesian model averaging through local information propagation
We show that a probabilistic version of the classical forward-stepwise
variable inclusion procedure can serve as a general data-augmentation scheme
for model space distributions in (generalized) linear models. This latent
variable representation takes the form of a Markov process, thereby allowing
information propagation algorithms to be applied for sampling from model space
posteriors. In particular, we propose a sequential Monte Carlo method for
achieving effective unbiased Bayesian model averaging in high-dimensional
problems, utilizing proposal distributions constructed using local information
propagation. We illustrate our method---called LIPS for local information
propagation based sampling---through real and simulated examples with
dimensionality ranging from 15 to 1,000, and compare its performance in
estimating posterior inclusion probabilities and in out-of-sample prediction to
those of several other methods---namely, MCMC, BAS, iBMA, and LASSO. In
addition, we show that the latent variable representation can also serve as a
modeling tool for specifying model space priors that account for knowledge
regarding model complexity and conditional inclusion relationships
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