State-of-the-art in aerodynamic shape optimisation methods

Aerodynamic optimisation has become an indispensable component for any aerodynamic design over the past 60 years, with applications to aircraft, cars, trains, bridges, wind turbines, internal pipe flows, and cavities, among others, and is thus relevant in many facets of technology. With advancements in computational power, automated design optimisation procedures have become more competent, however, there is an ambiguity and bias throughout the literature with regards to relative performance of optimisation architectures and employed algorithms. This paper provides a well-balanced critical review of the dominant optimisation approaches that have been integrated with aerodynamic theory for the purpose of shape optimisation. A total of 229 papers, published in more than 120 journals and conference proceedings, have been classified into 6 different optimisation algorithm approaches. The material cited includes some of the most well-established authors and publications in the field of aerodynamic optimisation. This paper aims to eliminate bias toward certain algorithms by analysing the limitations, drawbacks, and the benefits of the most utilised optimisation approaches. This review provides comprehensive but straightforward insight for non-specialists and reference detailing the current state for specialist practitioners

Short Term Unit Commitment as a Planning Problem

‘Unit Commitment’, setting online schedules for generating units in a power system to ensure supply meets demand, is integral to the secure, efficient, and economic daily operation of a power system. Conflicting desires for security of supply at minimum cost complicate this. Sustained research has produced methodologies within a guaranteed bound of optimality, given sufficient computing time. Regulatory requirements to reduce emissions in modern power systems have necessitated increased renewable generation, whose output cannot be directly controlled, increasing complex uncertainties. Traditional methods are thus less efficient, generating more costly schedules or requiring impractical increases in solution time. Meta-Heuristic approaches are studied to identify why this large body of work has had little industrial impact despite continued academic interest over many years. A discussion of lessons learned is given, and should be of interest to researchers presenting new Unit Commitment approaches, such as a Planning implementation. Automated Planning is a sub-field of Artificial Intelligence, where a timestamped sequence of predefined actions manipulating a system towards a goal configuration is sought. This differs from previous Unit Commitment formulations found in the literature. There are fewer times when a unit’s online status switches, representing a Planning action, than free variables in a traditional formulation. Efficient reasoning about these actions could reduce solution time, enabling Planning to tackle Unit Commitment problems with high levels of renewable generation. Existing Planning formulations for Unit Commitment have not been found. A successful formulation enumerating open challenges would constitute a good benchmark problem for the field. Thus, two models are presented. The first demonstrates the approach’s strength in temporal reasoning over numeric optimisation. The second balances this but current algorithms cannot handle it. Extensions to an existing algorithm are proposed alongside a discussion of immediate challenges and possible solutions. This is intended to form a base from which a successful methodology can be developed

Improved learning automata applied to routing in multi-service networks

Multi-service communications networks are generally designed, provisioned and configured, based on source-destination user demands expected to occur over a recurring time period. However due to network users' actions being non-deterministic, actual user demands will vary from those expected, potentially causing some network resources to be under- provisioned, with others possibly over-provisioned. As actual user demands vary over the recurring time period from those expected, so the status of the various shared network resources may also vary. This high degree of uncertainty necessitates using adaptive resource allocation mechanisms to share the finite network resources more efficiently so that more of actual user demands may be accommodated onto the network. The overhead for these adaptive resource allocation mechanisms must be low in order to scale for use in large networks carrying many source-destination user demands. This thesis examines the use of stochastic learning automata for the adaptive routing problem (these being adaptive, distributed and simple in implementation and operation) and seeks to improve their weakness of slow convergence whilst maintaining their strength of subsequent near optimal performance. Firstly, current reinforcement algorithms (the part causing the automaton to learn) are examined for applicability, and contrary to the literature the discretised schemes are found in general to be unsuitable. Two algorithms are chosen (one with fast convergence, the other with good subsequent performance) and are improved through automatically adapting the learning rates and automatically switching between the two algorithms. Both novel methods use local entropy of action probabilities for determining convergence state. However when the convergence speed and blocking probability is compared to a bandwidth-based dynamic link-state shortest-path algorithm, the latter is found to be superior. A novel re-application of learning automata to the routing problem is therefore proposed: using link utilisation levels instead of call acceptance or packet delay. Learning automata now return a lower blocking probability than the dynamic shortest-path based scheme under realistic loading levels, but still suffer from a significant number of convergence iterations. Therefore the final improvement is to combine both learning automata and shortest-path concepts to form a hybrid algorithm. The resulting blocking probability of this novel routing algorithm is superior to either algorithm, even when using trend user demands

Probabilistic modelling of oil rig drilling operations for business decision support: a real world application of Bayesian networks and computational intelligence.

This work investigates the use of evolved Bayesian networks learning algorithms based on computational intelligence meta-heuristic algorithms. These algorithms are applied to a new domain provided by the exclusive data, available to this project from an industry partnership with ODS-Petrodata, a business intelligence company in Aberdeen, Scotland. This research proposes statistical models that serve as a foundation for building a novel operational tool for forecasting the performance of rig drilling operations. A prototype for a tool able to forecast the future performance of a drilling operation is created using the obtained data, the statistical model and the experts' domain knowledge. This work makes the following contributions: applying K2GA and Bayesian networks to a real-world industry problem; developing a well-performing and adaptive solution to forecast oil drilling rig performance; using the knowledge of industry experts to guide the creation of competitive models; creating models able to forecast oil drilling rig performance consistently with nearly 80% forecast accuracy, using either logistic regression or Bayesian network learning using genetic algorithms; introducing the node juxtaposition analysis graph, which allows the visualisation of the frequency of nodes links appearing in a set of orderings, thereby providing new insights when analysing node ordering landscapes; exploring the correlation factors between model score and model predictive accuracy, and showing that the model score does not correlate with the predictive accuracy of the model; exploring a method for feature selection using multiple algorithms and drastically reducing the modelling time by multiple factors; proposing new fixed structure Bayesian network learning algorithms for node ordering search-space exploration. Finally, this work proposes real-world applications for the models based on current industry needs, such as recommender systems, an oil drilling rig selection tool, a user-ready rig performance forecasting software and rig scheduling tools

Applying multiobjective evolutionary algorithms in industrial projects

During the recent years, multiobjective evolutionary algorithms have matured as a flexible optimization tool which can be used in various areas of reallife applications. Practical experiences showed that typically the algorithms need an essential adaptation to the specific problem for a successful application. Considering these requirements, we discuss various issues of the design and application of multiobjective evolutionary algorithms to real-life optimization problems. In particular, questions on problem-specific data structures and evolutionary operators and the determination of method parameters are treated. As a major issue, the handling of infeasible intermediate solutions is pointed out. Three application examples in the areas of constrained global optimization (electronic circuit design), semi-infinite programming (design centering problems), and discrete optimization (project scheduling) are discussed

OASIS: Optimisation-based Activity Scheduling with Integrated Simultaneous choice dimensions

Activity-based models offer the potential of a far deeper understanding of daily mobility behaviour than trip-based models. However, activity-based models used both in research and practice have often relied on applying sequential choice models between subsequent choices, oversimplifying the scheduling process. In this paper we introduce OASIS, an integrated framework to simulate activity schedules by considering all choice dimensions simultaneously. We present a methodology for the estimation of the parameters of an activity-based model from historic data, allowing for the generation of realistic and consistent daily mobility schedules. The estimation process has two main elements: (i) choice set generation, using the Metropolis-Hasting algorithm, and (ii) estimation of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters. We test our approach by estimating parameters of multiple utility specifications for a sample of individuals from a Swiss nationwide travel survey, and evaluating the output of the OASIS model against realised schedules from the data. The results demonstrate the ability of the new framework to simulate realistic distributions of activity schedules, and estimate stable and significant parameters from historic data that are consistent with behavioural theory. This work opens the way for future developments of activity-based models, where a great deal of constraints can be explicitly included in the modelling framework, and all choice dimensions are handled simultaneously

In pursuit of autonomous distributed satellite systems

Satellite imagery has become an essential resource for environmental, humanitarian, and industrial endeavours. As a means to satisfy the requirements of new applications and user needs, novel Earth Observation (EO) systems are exploring the suitability of Distributed Satellite Systems (DSS) in which multiple observation assets concurrently sense the Earth. Given the temporal and spatial resolution requirements of EO products, DSS are often envisioned as large-scale systems with multiple sensing capabilities operating in a networked manner. Enabled by the consolidation of small satellite platforms and fostered by the emerging capabilities of distributed systems, these new architectures pose multiple design and operational challenges. Two of them are the main pillars of this research, namely, the conception of decision-support tools to assist the architecting process of a DSS, and the design of autonomous operational frameworks based on decentralised, on-board decision-making. The first part of this dissertation addresses the architecting of heterogeneous, networked DSS architectures that hybridise small satellite platforms with traditional EO assets. We present a generic design-oriented optimisation framework based on tradespace exploration methodologies. The goals of this framework are twofold: to select the most optimal constellation design; and to facilitate the identification of design trends, unfeasible regions, and tensions among architectural attributes. Oftentimes in EO DSS, system requirements and stakeholder preferences are not only articulated through functional attributes (i.e. resolution, revisit time, etc.) or monetary constraints, but also through qualitative traits such as flexibility, evolvability, robustness, or resiliency, amongst others. In line with that, the architecting framework defines a single figure of merit that aggregates quantitative attributes and qualitative ones-the so-called ilities of a system. With that, designers can steer the design of DSS both in terms of performance or cost, and in terms of their high-level characteristics. The application of this optimisation framework has been illustrated in two timely use-cases identified in the context of the EU-funded ONION project: a system that measures ocean and ice parameters in Polar regions to facilitate weather forecast and off-shore operations; and a system that provides agricultural variables crucial for global management of water stress, crop state, and draughts. The analysis of architectural features facilitated a comprehensive understanding of the functional and operational characteristics of DSS. With that, this thesis continues to delve into the design of DSS by focusing on one particular functional trait: autonomy. The minimisation of human-operator intervention has been traditionally sought in other space systems and can be especially critical for large-scale, structurally dynamic, heterogeneous DSS. In DSS, autonomy is expected to cope with the likely inability to operate very large-scale systems in a centralised manner, to improve the science return, and to leverage many of their emerging capabilities (e.g. tolerance to failures, adaptability to changing structures and user needs, responsiveness). We propose an autonomous operational framework that provides decentralised decision-making capabilities to DSS by means of local reasoning and individual resource allocation, and satellite-to-satellite interactions. In contrast to previous works, the autonomous decision-making framework is evaluated in this dissertation for generic constellation designs the goal of which is to minimise global revisit times. As part of the characterisation of our solution, we stressed the implications that autonomous operations can have upon satellite platforms with stringent resource constraints (e.g. power, memory, communications capabilities) and evaluated the behaviour of the solution for a large-scale DSS composed of 117 CubeSat-like satellite units.La imatgeria per satèl·lit ha esdevingut un recurs essencial per assolir tasques ambientals, humanitàries o industrials. Per tal de satisfer els requeriments de les noves aplicacions i usuaris, els sistemes d’observació de la Terra (OT) estan explorant la idoneïtat dels Sistemes de Satèl·lit Distribuïts (SSD), on múltiples observatoris espacials mesuren el planeta simultàniament. Degut al les resolucions temporals i espacials requerides, els SSD sovint es conceben com sistemes de gran escala que operen en xarxa. Aquestes noves arquitectures promouen les capacitats emergents dels sistemes distribuïts i, tot i que són possibles gràcies a l’acceptació de les plataformes de satèl·lits petits, encara presenten molts reptes en quant al disseny i operacions. Dos d’ells són els pilars principals d’aquesta tesi, en concret, la concepció d’eines de suport a la presa de decisions pel disseny de SSD, i la definició d’operacions autònomes basades en gestió descentralitzada a bord dels satèl·lits. La primera part d’aquesta dissertació es centra en el disseny arquitectural de SSD heterogenis i en xarxa, imbricant tecnologies de petits satèl·lits amb actius tradicionals. Es presenta un entorn d’optimització orientat al disseny basat en metodologies d’exploració i comparació de solucions. Els objectius d’aquest entorn són: la selecció el disseny de constel·lació més òptim; i facilitar la identificació de tendències de disseny, regions d’incompatibilitat, i tensions entre atributs arquitecturals. Sovint en els SSD d’OT, els requeriments del sistema i l’expressió de prioritats no només s’articulen en quant als atributs funcionals o les restriccions monetàries, sinó també a través de les característiques qualitatives com la flexibilitat, l’evolucionabilitat, la robustesa, o la resiliència, entre d’altres. En línia amb això, l’entorn d’optimització defineix una única figura de mèrit que agrega rendiment, cost i atributs qualitatius. Així l’equip de disseny pot influir en les solucions del procés d’optimització tant en els aspectes quantitatius, com en les característiques dalt nivell. L’aplicació d’aquest entorn d’optimització s’il·lustra en dos casos d’ús actuals identificats en context del projecte europeu ONION: un sistema que mesura paràmetres de l’oceà i gel als pols per millorar la predicció meteorològica i les operacions marines; i un sistema que obté mesures agronòmiques vitals per la gestió global de l’aigua, l’estimació d’estat dels cultius, i la gestió de sequeres. L’anàlisi de propietats arquitecturals ha permès copsar de manera exhaustiva les característiques funcionals i operacionals d’aquests sistemes. Amb això, la tesi ha seguit aprofundint en el disseny de SSD centrant-se, particularment, en un tret funcional: l’autonomia. Minimitzar la intervenció de l’operador humà és comú en altres sistemes espacials i podria ser especialment crític pels SSD de gran escala, d’estructura dinàmica i heterogenis. En els SSD s’espera que l’autonomia solucioni la possible incapacitat d’operar sistemes de gran escala de forma centralitzada, que millori el retorn científic i que n’apuntali les seves propietats emergents (e.g. tolerància a errors, adaptabilitat a canvis estructural i de necessitats d’usuari, capacitat de resposta). Es proposa un sistema d’operacions autònomes que atorga la capacitat de gestionar els sistemes de forma descentralitzada, a través del raonament local, l’assignació individual de recursos, i les interaccions satèl·lit-a-satèl·lit. Al contrari que treballs anteriors, la presa de decisions autònoma s’avalua per constel·lacions que tenen com a objectius de missió la minimització del temps de revisita global

In pursuit of autonomous distributed satellite systems

A la pàgina 265 diu: "In an effort to facilitate the reproduction of results, both the source code of the simulation environment and the configuration files that were prepared for the design characterisation are available in an open repository: https://github.com/carlesaraguz/aeossSatellite imagery has become an essential resource for environmental, humanitarian, and industrial endeavours. As a means to satisfy the requirements of new applications and user needs, novel Earth Observation (EO) systems are exploring the suitability of Distributed Satellite Systems (DSS) in which multiple observation assets concurrently sense the Earth. Given the temporal and spatial resolution requirements of EO products, DSS are often envisioned as large-scale systems with multiple sensing capabilities operating in a networked manner. Enabled by the consolidation of small satellite platforms and fostered by the emerging capabilities of distributed systems, these new architectures pose multiple design and operational challenges. Two of them are the main pillars of this research, namely, the conception of decision-support tools to assist the architecting process of a DSS, and the design of autonomous operational frameworks based on decentralised, on-board decision-making. The first part of this dissertation addresses the architecting of heterogeneous, networked DSS architectures that hybridise small satellite platforms with traditional EO assets. We present a generic design-oriented optimisation framework based on tradespace exploration methodologies. The goals of this framework are twofold: to select the most optimal constellation design; and to facilitate the identification of design trends, unfeasible regions, and tensions among architectural attributes. Oftentimes in EO DSS, system requirements and stakeholder preferences are not only articulated through functional attributes (i.e. resolution, revisit time, etc.) or monetary constraints, but also through qualitative traits such as flexibility, evolvability, robustness, or resiliency, amongst others. In line with that, the architecting framework defines a single figure of merit that aggregates quantitative attributes and qualitative ones-the so-called ilities of a system. With that, designers can steer the design of DSS both in terms of performance or cost, and in terms of their high-level characteristics. The application of this optimisation framework has been illustrated in two timely use-cases identified in the context of the EU-funded ONION project: a system that measures ocean and ice parameters in Polar regions to facilitate weather forecast and off-shore operations; and a system that provides agricultural variables crucial for global management of water stress, crop state, and draughts. The analysis of architectural features facilitated a comprehensive understanding of the functional and operational characteristics of DSS. With that, this thesis continues to delve into the design of DSS by focusing on one particular functional trait: autonomy. The minimisation of human-operator intervention has been traditionally sought in other space systems and can be especially critical for large-scale, structurally dynamic, heterogeneous DSS. In DSS, autonomy is expected to cope with the likely inability to operate very large-scale systems in a centralised manner, to improve the science return, and to leverage many of their emerging capabilities (e.g. tolerance to failures, adaptability to changing structures and user needs, responsiveness). We propose an autonomous operational framework that provides decentralised decision-making capabilities to DSS by means of local reasoning and individual resource allocation, and satellite-to-satellite interactions. In contrast to previous works, the autonomous decision-making framework is evaluated in this dissertation for generic constellation designs the goal of which is to minimise global revisit times. As part of the characterisation of our solution, we stressed the implications that autonomous operations can have upon satellite platforms with stringent resource constraints (e.g. power, memory, communications capabilities) and evaluated the behaviour of the solution for a large-scale DSS composed of 117 CubeSat-like satellite units.La imatgeria per satèl·lit ha esdevingut un recurs essencial per assolir tasques ambientals, humanitàries o industrials. Per tal de satisfer els requeriments de les noves aplicacions i usuaris, els sistemes d’observació de la Terra (OT) estan explorant la idoneïtat dels Sistemes de Satèl·lit Distribuïts (SSD), on múltiples observatoris espacials mesuren el planeta simultàniament. Degut al les resolucions temporals i espacials requerides, els SSD sovint es conceben com sistemes de gran escala que operen en xarxa. Aquestes noves arquitectures promouen les capacitats emergents dels sistemes distribuïts i, tot i que són possibles gràcies a l’acceptació de les plataformes de satèl·lits petits, encara presenten molts reptes en quant al disseny i operacions. Dos d’ells són els pilars principals d’aquesta tesi, en concret, la concepció d’eines de suport a la presa de decisions pel disseny de SSD, i la definició d’operacions autònomes basades en gestió descentralitzada a bord dels satèl·lits. La primera part d’aquesta dissertació es centra en el disseny arquitectural de SSD heterogenis i en xarxa, imbricant tecnologies de petits satèl·lits amb actius tradicionals. Es presenta un entorn d’optimització orientat al disseny basat en metodologies d’exploració i comparació de solucions. Els objectius d’aquest entorn són: la selecció el disseny de constel·lació més òptim; i facilitar la identificació de tendències de disseny, regions d’incompatibilitat, i tensions entre atributs arquitecturals. Sovint en els SSD d’OT, els requeriments del sistema i l’expressió de prioritats no només s’articulen en quant als atributs funcionals o les restriccions monetàries, sinó també a través de les característiques qualitatives com la flexibilitat, l’evolucionabilitat, la robustesa, o la resiliència, entre d’altres. En línia amb això, l’entorn d’optimització defineix una única figura de mèrit que agrega rendiment, cost i atributs qualitatius. Així l’equip de disseny pot influir en les solucions del procés d’optimització tant en els aspectes quantitatius, com en les característiques dalt nivell. L’aplicació d’aquest entorn d’optimització s’il·lustra en dos casos d’ús actuals identificats en context del projecte europeu ONION: un sistema que mesura paràmetres de l’oceà i gel als pols per millorar la predicció meteorològica i les operacions marines; i un sistema que obté mesures agronòmiques vitals per la gestió global de l’aigua, l’estimació d’estat dels cultius, i la gestió de sequeres. L’anàlisi de propietats arquitecturals ha permès copsar de manera exhaustiva les característiques funcionals i operacionals d’aquests sistemes. Amb això, la tesi ha seguit aprofundint en el disseny de SSD centrant-se, particularment, en un tret funcional: l’autonomia. Minimitzar la intervenció de l’operador humà és comú en altres sistemes espacials i podria ser especialment crític pels SSD de gran escala, d’estructura dinàmica i heterogenis. En els SSD s’espera que l’autonomia solucioni la possible incapacitat d’operar sistemes de gran escala de forma centralitzada, que millori el retorn científic i que n’apuntali les seves propietats emergents (e.g. tolerància a errors, adaptabilitat a canvis estructural i de necessitats d’usuari, capacitat de resposta). Es proposa un sistema d’operacions autònomes que atorga la capacitat de gestionar els sistemes de forma descentralitzada, a través del raonament local, l’assignació individual de recursos, i les interaccions satèl·lit-a-satèl·lit. Al contrari que treballs anteriors, la presa de decisions autònoma s’avalua per constel·lacions que tenen com a objectius de missió la minimització del temps de revisita global.Postprint (published version