Propagation of epistemic uncertainty in queueing models with unreliable server using chaos expansions

In this paper, we develop a numerical approach based on Chaos expansions to analyze the sensitivity and the propagation of epistemic uncertainty through a queueing systems with breakdowns. Here, the quantity of interest is the stationary distribution of the model, which is a function of uncertain parameters. Polynomial chaos provide an efficient alternative to more traditional Monte Carlo simulations for modelling the propagation of uncertainty arising from those parameters. Furthermore, Polynomial chaos expansion affords a natural framework for computing Sobol' indices. Such indices give reliable information on the relative importance of each uncertain entry parameters. Numerical results show the benefit of using Polynomial Chaos over standard Monte-Carlo simulations, when considering statistical moments and Sobol' indices as output quantities

Robust power series algorithm for epistemic uncertainty propagation in Markov chain models

In this article, we develop a new methodology for integrating epistemic uncertainties into the computation of performance measures of Markov chain models. We developed a power series algorithm that allows for combining perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis in a joint framework. We characterize statistically several performance measures, given that distribution of the model parameter expressing the uncertainty about the exact parameter value is known. The technical part of the article provides convergence result, bounds for the remainder term of the power series, and bounds for the validity region of the approximation. In the algorithmic part of the article, an efficient implementation of the power series algorithm for propagating epistemic uncertainty in queueing models with breakdowns and repairs is discussed. Several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm and are compared with the corresponding Monte Carlo simulations ones

Solving random homogeneous linear second-order differential equations: a full probabilistic description

[EN] In this paper a complete probabilistic description for the solution of random homogeneous linear second-order differential equations via the computation of its two first probability density functions is given. As a consequence, all unidimensional and two-dimensional statistical moments can be straightforwardly determined, in particular, mean, variance and covariance functions, as well as the first-order conditional law. With the aim of providing more generality, in a first step, all involved input parameters are assumed to be statistically dependent random variables having an arbitrary joint probability density function. Second, the particular case that just initial conditions are random variables is also analysed. Both problems have common and distinctive feature which are highlighted in our analysis. The study is based on random variable transformation method. As a consequence of our study, the well-known deterministic results are nicely generalized. Several illustrative examples are included.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish M. C. Y. T. Grant MTM2013-41765-P.Casabán, M.; Cortés, J.; Romero, J.; Roselló, M. (2016). Solving random homogeneous linear second-order differential equations: a full probabilistic description. Mediterranean Journal of Mathematics. 13(6):3817-3836. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00009-016-0716-6S38173836136Øksendal B.: Stochastic Differential Equations: An Introduction with Applications, 6th edn. Springer, Berlin (2007)Soong T.T.: Random Differential Equations in Science and Engineering. Academic Press, New York (1973)Neckel, T., Rupp, F.: Random Differential Equations in Scientific Computing. Versita, London (2013)Nouri, K., Ranjbar, H.: Mean square convergence of the numerical solution of random differential equations. Mediterr. J. Math. 1–18 (2014). doi: 10.1007/s00009-014-0452-8Villafuerte, L., Chen-Charpentier, B.M.: A random differential transform method: theory and applications. Appl. Math. Lett. 25(10), 1490–1494 (2012). doi: 10.1016/j.aml.2011.12.033Licea, J.A., Villafuerte, L., Chen-Charpentier, B.M.: Analytic and numerical solutions of a Riccati differential equation with random coefficients. J. Comput. Appl. Math. 239, 208–219 (2013). doi: 10.1016/j.cam.2012.09.040Casabán, M.C., Cortés, J.C., Romero, J.V., Roselló, M.D.: Probabilistic solution of random homogeneous linear second-order difference equations. Appl. Math. Lett. 34, 27–32 (2014). doi: 10.1016/j.aml.2014.03.010Santos, L.T., Dorini, F.A., Cunha, M.C.C.: The probability density function to the random linear transport equation. Appl. Math. Comput. 216 (5), 1524–1530 (2010). doi: 10.16/j.amc.2010.03.001El-Tawil, M., El-Tahan, W., Hussein, A.: Using FEM-RVT technique for solving a randomly excited ordinary differential equation with a random operator. Appl. Math. Comput. 187(2), 856–867 (2007). doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2006.08.164Hussein, A., Selim, M.M.: Solution of the stochastic radiative transfer equation with Rayleigh scattering using RVT technique. Appl. Math. Comput. 218(13), 7193–7203 (2012). doi: 10.1016/j.amc.2011.12.088Casabán, M.C., Cortés, J.C., Romero, J.V., Roselló, M.D.: Probabilistic solution of random SI-type epidemiological models using the random variable transformation technique. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 24(1–3), 86–97 (2015). doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2014.12.016Casabán, M.C., Cortés, J.C., Romero, J.V., Roselló, M.D.: Determining the first probability density function of linear random initial value problems by the random variable transformation (RVT) technique: a comprehensive study. In: Abstract and Applied Analysis 2014-ID248512, pp. 1–25 (2014). doi: 10.1155/2013/248512Casabán, M.C., Cortés, J.C., Navarro-Quiles, A., Romero, J.V., Roselló, M.D., Villanueva, R.J.: A comprehensive probabilistic solution of random SIS-type epidemiological models using the random variable transformation technique. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 32, 199–210 (2016). doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2015.08.009El-Wakil, S.A., Sallah, M., El-Hanbaly, A.M.: Random variable transformation for generalized stochastic radiative transfer in finite participating slab media. Phys. A 435 66–79 (2015). doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.04.033Dorini, F.A., Cunha, M.C.C.: On the linear advection equation subject to random fields velocity. Math. Comput. Simul. 82, 679–690 (2011). doi: 10.16/j.matcom.2011.10.008Dhople, S.V., Domínguez-García, D.: A parametric uncertainty analysis method for Markov reliability and reward models. IEEE Trans. Reliab. 61(3), 634–648 (2012). doi: 10.1109/TR.2012.2208299Williams, M.M.R.: Polynomial chaos functions and stochastic differential equations. Ann. Nucl. Energy 33(9), 774–785 (2006). doi: 10.1016/j.anucene.2006.04.005Chen-Charpentier, B.M., Stanescu, D.: Epidemic models with random coefficients. Math. Comput. Model. 52(7/8), 1004–1010 (2009). doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2010.01.014Papoulis A.: Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes. McGraw-Hill, New York (1991

Operation and planning of distribution networks with integration of renewable distributed generators considering uncertainties: a review

YesDistributed generators (DGs) are a reliable solution to supply economic and reliable electricity to customers. It is the last stage in delivery of electric power which can be defined as an electric power source connected directly to the distribution network or on the customer site. It is necessary to allocate DGs optimally (size, placement and the type) to obtain commercial, technical, environmental and regulatory advantages of power systems. In this context, a comprehensive literature review of uncertainty modeling methods used for modeling uncertain parameters related to renewable DGs as well as methodologies used for the planning and operation of DGs integration into distribution network.This work was supported in part by the SITARA project funded by the British Council and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, UK and in part by the University of Bradford, UK under the CCIP grant 66052/000000