8,998 research outputs found
Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which
originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds,
convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New
computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning
make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution
simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from
both. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how
parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted
high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through
matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution
simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical
system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the
opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to
realize it.Comment: 32 pages, 3 figure
A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding
We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010
Infrared Non-detection of Fomalhaut b -- Implications for the Planet Interpretation
The nearby A4-type star Fomalhaut hosts a debris belt in the form of an
eccentric ring, which is thought to be caused by dynamical influence from a
giant planet companion. In 2008, a detection of a point-source inside the inner
edge of the ring was reported and was interpreted as a direct image of the
planet, named Fomalhaut b. The detection was made at ~600--800 nm, but no
corresponding signatures were found in the near-infrared range, where the bulk
emission of such a planet should be expected. Here we present deep observations
of Fomalhaut with Spitzer/IRAC at 4.5 um, using a novel PSF subtraction
technique based on ADI and LOCI, in order to substantially improve the Spitzer
contrast at small separations. The results provide more than an order of
magnitude improvement in the upper flux limit of Fomalhaut b and exclude the
possibility that any flux from a giant planet surface contributes to the
observed flux at visible wavelengths. This renders any direct connection
between the observed light source and the dynamically inferred giant planet
highly unlikely. We discuss several possible interpretations of the total body
of observations of the Fomalhaut system, and find that the interpretation that
best matches the available data for the observed source is scattered light from
transient or semi-transient dust cloud.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, ApJ 747, 166. V2: updated acknowledgments and
reference
Automated Classification of Airborne Laser Scanning Point Clouds
Making sense of the physical world has always been at the core of mapping. Up
until recently, this has always dependent on using the human eye. Using
airborne lasers, it has become possible to quickly "see" more of the world in
many more dimensions. The resulting enormous point clouds serve as data sources
for applications far beyond the original mapping purposes ranging from flooding
protection and forestry to threat mitigation. In order to process these large
quantities of data, novel methods are required. In this contribution, we
develop models to automatically classify ground cover and soil types. Using the
logic of machine learning, we critically review the advantages of supervised
and unsupervised methods. Focusing on decision trees, we improve accuracy by
including beam vector components and using a genetic algorithm. We find that
our approach delivers consistently high quality classifications, surpassing
classical methods
An Integrated Multi-Time-Scale Modeling for Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Deep Learning
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point
forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary
characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to
maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability
of solar energy. The higher the uncertainty in the generation, the greater the
operating-reserve requirements, which translates to an increased cost of
operation. In this research work, we propose a unified architecture for
multi-time-scale predictions for intra-day solar irradiance forecasting using
recurrent neural networks (RNN) and long-short-term memory networks (LSTMs).
This paper also lays out a framework for extending this modeling approach to
intra-hour forecasting horizons thus, making it a multi-time-horizon
forecasting approach, capable of predicting intra-hour as well as intra-day
solar irradiance. We develop an end-to-end pipeline to effectuate the proposed
architecture. The performance of the prediction model is tested and validated
by the methodical implementation. The robustness of the approach is
demonstrated with case studies conducted for geographically scattered sites
across the United States. The predictions demonstrate that our proposed unified
architecture-based approach is effective for multi-time-scale solar forecasts
and achieves a lower root-mean-square prediction error when benchmarked against
the best-performing methods documented in the literature that use separate
models for each time-scale during the day. Our proposed method results in a
71.5% reduction in the mean RMSE averaged across all the test sites compared to
the ML-based best-performing method reported in the literature. Additionally,
the proposed method enables multi-time-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs,
which have a significant potential for practical industry applications in the
evolving grid.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, under review for journal submissio
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