Lessons from the evacuation of the World Trade Center, Sept 11th 2001 for the future development of computer simulations

This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in evacuation simulations. These interactive computer based tools have been developed to help the owners and designers of large public buildings to assess the risks that occupants might face during emergency egress. The development of the Glasgow Evacuation Simulator is used to illustrate the existing generation of tools. This system uses Monte Carlo techniques to control individual and group movements during an evacuation. The end-user can interactively open and block emergency exits at any point. It is also possible to alter the priorities that individuals associate with particular exit routes. A final benefit is that the tool can derive evacuation simulations directly from existing architects models; this reduces the cost of simulations and creates a more prominent role for these tools in the iterative development of large-scale public buildings. Empirical studies have been used to validate the GES system as a tool to support evacuation training. The development of these tools has been informed by numerous human factors studies and by recent accident investigations. For example, the 2003 fire in the Station nightclub in Rhode Island illustrated the way in which most building occupants retrace their steps to an entrance even when there are alternate fire exits. The second half of this paper uses this introduction to criticise the existing state of the art in evacuation simulations. These criticisms are based on a detailed study of the recent findings from the 9/11 Commission (2004). Ten different lessons are identified. Some relate to the need to better understand the role of building management and security systems in controlling egress from public buildings. Others relate to the human factors involved in coordinating distributed groups of emergency personnel who may be physically exhausted by the demands of an evacuation. Arguably the most important findings centre on the need to model the ingress and egress of emergency personnel from these structures. The previous focus of nearly all-existing simulation tools has been on the evacuation of building occupants rather than on the safety of first responders1

Developing an Adaptive Building Evacuation Simulation and Decision Support Framework using Cognitive Agent-Based Modelling

Preparing for an unprecedented event involving the movement of populations could take up large amounts of resources if done conventionally. The main motivation of this study is the behavioural modification approach which is an underexplored potential in evacuation dynamics, offering new possibilities in terms of practicality and ease of implementation. This paper tackles an adaptive building evacuation simulation and decision support framework that will serve as a guide to evaluate and propose evacuation strategies for disaster management researchers and decision-making authorities. The framework mainly involves the formulation of the cognitive agent model, the evacuation simulation, and the decision support. The timeliness in the Philippine context of the long-overdue “Big One” earthquake, the vulnerability of the case study, and the capability of the framework to be a standard guide where components can be customized by users based on the disaster type and site-specific requirements make this research a significant undertaking

A holistic model of emergency evacuations in large, complex, public occupancy buildings

Evacuations are crucial for ensuring the safety of building occupants in the event of an emergency. In large, complex, public occupancy buildings (LCPOBs) these procedures are significantly more complex than the simple withdrawal of people from a building. This thesis has developed a novel, holistic, theoretical model of emergency evacuations in LCPOBs inspired by systems safety theory. LCPOBs are integral components of complex socio-technical systems, and therefore the model describes emergency evacuations as control actions initiated in order to return the building from an unsafe state to a safe state where occupants are not at risk of harm. The emergency evacuation process itself is comprised of four aspects - the movement (of building occupants), planning and management, environmental features, and evacuee behaviour. To demonstrate its utility and applicability, the model has been employed to examine various aspects of evacuation procedures in two example LCPOBs - airport terminals, and sports stadiums. The types of emergency events initiating evacuations in these buildings were identified through a novel hazard analysis procedure, which utilised online news articles to create events databases of previous evacuations. Security and terrorism events, false alarms, and fires were found to be the most common cause of evacuations in these buildings. The management of evacuations was explored through model-based systems engineering techniques, which identified the communication methods and responsibilities of staff members managing these events. Social media posts for an active shooting event were analysed using qualitative and machine learning methods to determine their utility for situational awareness. This data source is likely not informative for this purpose, as few posts detail occupant behaviours. Finally, an experimental study on pedestrian dynamics with movement devices was conducted, which determined that walking speeds during evacuations were unaffected by evacuees dragging luggage, but those pushing pushchairs and wheelchairs will walk significantly slower.Open Acces

Simulating The Evacuation Of Students Attending Classes At The York University's Keele Campus

Since 1901, Canada has recorded over a thousand disasters (CDD, 2015). Ontario, a province possessing the highest number of incidents and evacuations, has adapted and learned from these experiences. The Emergency Movement and Civil Protection Act (1990) for example, legally obliged government organizations to maintain an emergency management program. Despite the measures set out by the government there were still a dominant paradigm of disaster, leading many to believe nothing could be done, when one occurs, or that they would not be affected one. Morris (2009) proved otherwise when it came to school shootings (a technological disaster). Morris illustrated awareness and preparedness in school led to resilient students who were less affected by the disasters. An important observation, as school disasters in particular have the ability to cause jarring impacts to a community. This Major Paper presents a simulation model that evacuates students attending classes at the York University Keele Campus. The agent-based model was constructed with data acquired from York University's Office of Institutional Planning & Analysis, York University?s Planning & Architectural Design branch of the Campus Services and Business Operation, and scientific journals. The model reproduces the number of registered students during the winter semester of 2014, from Monday to Sunday. This cycle stops, when a signal is given, informing of an evacuation. From this instance, students, proceeded through a series of steps before arriving to one of four predetermined evacuation zones. These steps included: 1) pre-movement 2) descend the corresponding multi-floored building and 3) travel at an assigned speed to the evacuation zone. Forty evacuation scenarios, ten for each evacuation zones, were generated at varying times of day, throughout the week. The gathered times were further analyzed with three variables: the student population, the number of buildings holding classes, and the percentage of buildings within the vicinity of an evacuation zone. The student population demonstrated a logarithmic relationship with time, where evacuation time became more consistent as the population sized increased. When it came to the analysis of the number of buildings holding classes, the greater number of buildings, meant the buildings were more spread out and resulted in similar evacuation time for all four evacuation zones. The last case examined the percentage of buildings within the vicinity of an evacuation zone, half of the evacuation zones possessed a linear relationship, where the greater percentages meant a shorter arrival time

Improving Fire Emergency Management Using Occupant Information and BIM-Based Simulation

The increasing complexity of buildings has brought some difficulties for emergency response. When fires occur in a building, limited perception regarding the disaster area and occupants can increase the probability of injuries and damages. Thus, the availability of comprehensive and timely information may help understand the existing conditions and plan an efficient evacuation. For this purpose, Building Information Modeling (BIM) should be integrated with three sets of information: (1) occupancy that defines the type of space usage; (2) occupants’ information; and (3) sensory data. The Industry Foundation Classes (IFC), as a standard of BIM, has the definitions for all areas, volumes, and elements of a building. IFC also has the basic definitions of sensor and occupant entities. However, these entities do not provide enough dynamic and accurate information for supporting emergency management systems. In addition, building renovation projects have an effect on evacuation time. During the building renovation projects, space is shared between the construction crews and occupants. The construction works change the building layout and movement flow, which increase the occupants’ vulnerability, affecting their evacuation behavior under emergency conditions. Hence, the safety and wellbeing of the occupants as well as their evacuation time should be considered under emergency incidents. This thesis aims to improve fire emergency management using occupant information and BIM-based simulation. For this purpose, a “dynamic BIM” for fire emergency real-time management is developed that captures enough dynamism regarding the building condition as well as environmental conditions and occupants’ behavior. Also, an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is used to assist in the analysis of the static and dynamic behavior of the environment and occupants in BIM. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) extending IfcSensor entity for occupant’s sensors; (2) adding new attributes to IfcOccupant to support emergency response operations and defining a new entity for occupancy; (3) defining the relationships between sensors, occupants, occupancy, time series, and building components in the context of building evacuation; (4) creating dynamic BIM for tracking occupants and environmental states; and (5) evaluating the evacuation time for specific scenarios where additional spatio-temporal constraints exist during a fire incidence. Renovation construction operations are considered as such constraint and an ABM co-simulation framework is developed under emergency conditions. The feasibility of the proposed methods is discussed using different case studies

Developing a framework leveraging building information modelling to validate fire emergency evacuation

In fire emergency management, a delayed execution will cause a significant number of casualties. Conventional fire drills typically only identify a certain percentage of evacuation bottlenecks after the building has been constructed, which is hard to improve. This paper proposes an innovative framework to validate fire emergency evacuation at the early design stage. According to the experience and knowledge of fire emergency evacuation design, the proposed framework also introduces a seamless two-way information channel to embed fire emergency evacuation simulations into a BIM-based design environment. Several critical factors for fire evacuation have been reviewed in relevant domain knowledge, which is used to build virtual characters to test in experimental scenarios. The results are analyzed to validate fire emergency evacuation factors, and the feedback knowledge is stored as a knowledge model for further applications

Building Occupancy Simulation and Data Assimilation Using a Graph Based Agent Oriented Model

Building occupancy simulation and estimation simulates the dynamics of occupants and estimates the real time spatial distribution of occupants in a building. It can benefit various applications like conserving energy, smart assist, building construction, crowd management, and emergency evacuation. Building occupancy simulation and estimation needs a simulation model and a data assimilation algorithm that assimilates real-time sensor data into the simulation model. Existing build occupancy simulation models include agent-based models and graph-based models. The agent-based models suffer high computation cost for simulating a large number occupants, and graph-based models overlook the heterogeneity and detailed behaviors of individuals. Recognizing the limitations of the existing models, in this dissertation, we combine the benefits of agent and graph based modeling and develop a new graph based agent oriented model which can efficiently simulate a large number of occupants in various building structures. To support real-time occupancy dynamics estimation, we developed a data assimilation framework based on Sequential Monte Carol Methods, and apply it to the graph-based agent oriented model to assimilate real time sensor data. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the developed model and the data assimilation framework. The major contributions of this dissertation work include 1) it provides an efficient model for building occupancy simulation which can accommodate thousands of occupants; 2) it provides an effective data assimilation framework for real-time estimation of building occupancy

Applying the lessons of the attack on the World Trade Center, 11th September 2001, to the design and use of interactive evacuation simulations

The collapse of buildings, such as terminal 2E at Paris' Charles de Gaule Airport, and of fires, such as the Rhode Island, Station Night Club tragedy, has focused public attention on the safety of large public buildings. Initiatives in the United States and in Europe have led to the development of interactive simulators that model evacuation from these buildings. The tools avoid some of the ethical and legal problems from simulating evacuations; many people were injured during the 1993 evacuation of the World Trade Center (WTC) complex. They also use many concepts that originate within the CHI communities. For instance, some simulators use simple task models to represent the occupants' goal structures as they search for an available exit. However, the recent release of the report from the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (the '9/11 commission') has posed serious questions about the design and use of this particular class of interactive systems. This paper argues that simulation research needs to draw on insights from the CHI communities in order to meet some the challenges identified by the 9/11 commission

Distributed agent-based building evacuation simulator

The optimisation of the evacuation of a building plays a fundamental role in emergency situations. The behaviour of individuals, the directions that civilians receive, and the actions of the emergency personnel, will affect the success of the operation. We describe a simulation system that represents the individual, intelligent, and interacting agents that cooperate and compete while evacuating the building. The system also takes into account detailed information about the building and the sensory capabilities that it may contain. Since the level of detail represented in such a simulation can lead to computational needs that grow at least as a polynomial function of the number of the simulated agents, we propose an agent-oriented Distributed Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES). The DBES is integrated with a wireless sensor network which offers a closed loop representation of the evacuation procedure, including the sensed data and the emergency decision making