Machine Learning Methods to Exploit the Predictive Power of Open, High, Low, Close (OHLC) Data

Novel machine learning techniques are developed for the prediction of financial markets, with a combination of supervised, unsupervised and Bayesian optimisation machine learning methods shown able to give a predictive power rarely previously observed. A new data mining technique named Deep Candlestick Mining (DCM) is proposed that is able to discover highly predictive dataset specific candlestick patterns (arrangements of open, high, low, close (OHLC) aggregated price data structures) which significantly outperform traditional candlestick patterns. The power that OHLC features can provide is further investigated, using LSTM RNNs and XGBoost trees, in the prediction of a mid-price directional change, defined here as the mid-point between either the open and close or high and low of an OHLC bar. This target variable has been overlooked in the literature, which is surprising given the relative ease of predicting it, significantly in excess of noisier financial quantities. However, the true value of this quantity is only known upon the period's ending – i.e. it is an after-the-fact observation. To make use of and enhance the remarkable predictability of the mid-price directional change, multi-period predictions are investigated by training many LSTM RNNs (XGBoost trees being used to identify powerful OHLC input feature combinations), over different time horizons, to construct a Bayesian optimised trend prediction ensemble. This fusion of long-, medium- and short-term information results in a model capable of predicting market trend direction to greater than 70% better than random. A trading strategy is constructed to demonstrate how this predictive power can be used by exploiting an artefact of the LSTM RNN training process which allows the trading system to size and place trades in accordance with the ensemble's predictive certainty

Computational Intelligence for the Micro Learning

The developments of the Web technology and the mobile devices have blurred the time and space boundaries of people’s daily activities, which enable people to work, entertain, and learn through the mobile device at almost anytime and anywhere. Together with the life-long learning requirement, such technology developments give birth to a new learning style, micro learning. Micro learning aims to effectively utilise learners’ fragmented spare time and carry out personalised learning activities. However, the massive volume of users and the online learning resources force the micro learning system deployed in the context of enormous and ubiquitous data. Hence, manually managing the online resources or user information by traditional methods are no longer feasible. How to utilise computational intelligence based solutions to automatically managing and process different types of massive information is the biggest research challenge for realising the micro learning service. As a result, to facilitate the micro learning service in the big data era efficiently, we need an intelligent system to manage the online learning resources and carry out different analysis tasks. To this end, an intelligent micro learning system is designed in this thesis. The design of this system is based on the service logic of the micro learning service. The micro learning system consists of three intelligent modules: learning material pre-processing module, learning resource delivery module and the intelligent assistant module. The pre-processing module interprets the content of the raw online learning resources and extracts key information from each resource. The pre-processing step makes the online resources ready to be used by other intelligent components of the system. The learning resources delivery module aims to recommend personalised learning resources to the target user base on his/her implicit and explicit user profiles. The goal of the intelligent assistant module is to provide some evaluation or assessment services (such as student dropout rate prediction and final grade prediction) to the educational resource providers or instructors. The educational resource providers can further refine or modify the learning materials based on these assessment results

Unveiling the frontiers of deep learning: innovations shaping diverse domains

Deep learning (DL) enables the development of computer models that are capable of learning, visualizing, optimizing, refining, and predicting data. In recent years, DL has been applied in a range of fields, including audio-visual data processing, agriculture, transportation prediction, natural language, biomedicine, disaster management, bioinformatics, drug design, genomics, face recognition, and ecology. To explore the current state of deep learning, it is necessary to investigate the latest developments and applications of deep learning in these disciplines. However, the literature is lacking in exploring the applications of deep learning in all potential sectors. This paper thus extensively investigates the potential applications of deep learning across all major fields of study as well as the associated benefits and challenges. As evidenced in the literature, DL exhibits accuracy in prediction and analysis, makes it a powerful computational tool, and has the ability to articulate itself and optimize, making it effective in processing data with no prior training. Given its independence from training data, deep learning necessitates massive amounts of data for effective analysis and processing, much like data volume. To handle the challenge of compiling huge amounts of medical, scientific, healthcare, and environmental data for use in deep learning, gated architectures like LSTMs and GRUs can be utilized. For multimodal learning, shared neurons in the neural network for all activities and specialized neurons for particular tasks are necessary.Comment: 64 pages, 3 figures, 3 table

Air Quality Prediction in Smart Cities Using Machine Learning Technologies Based on Sensor Data: A Review

The influence of machine learning technologies is rapidly increasing and penetrating almost in every field, and air pollution prediction is not being excluded from those fields. This paper covers the revision of the studies related to air pollution prediction using machine learning algorithms based on sensor data in the context of smart cities. Using the most popular databases and executing the corresponding filtration, the most relevant papers were selected. After thorough reviewing those papers, the main features were extracted, which served as a base to link and compare them to each other. As a result, we can conclude that: (1) instead of using simple machine learning techniques, currently, the authors apply advanced and sophisticated techniques, (2) China was the leading country in terms of a case study, (3) Particulate matter with diameter equal to 2.5 micrometers was the main prediction target, (4) in 41% of the publications the authors carried out the prediction for the next day, (5) 66% of the studies used data had an hourly rate, (6) 49% of the papers used open data and since 2016 it had a tendency to increase, and (7) for efficient air quality prediction it is important to consider the external factors such as weather conditions, spatial characteristics, and temporal features

Proceedings of the 2018 Joint Workshop of Fraunhofer IOSB and Institute for Anthropomatics, Vision and Fusion Laboratory

The Proceeding of the annual joint workshop of the Fraunhofer IOSB and the Vision and Fusion Laboratory (IES) 2018 of the KIT contain technical reports of the PhD-stundents on the status of their research. The discussed topics ranging from computer vision and optical metrology to network security and machine learning. This volume provides a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the research program of the IES Laboratory and the Fraunhofer IOSB

Deep Learning for Financial Time Series Prediction : A State-of-the-Art Review of Standalone and Hybrid Models

Financial time series prediction, whether for classification or regression, has been a heated research topic over the last decade. While traditional machine learning algorithms have experienced mediocre results, deep learning has largely contributed to the elevation of the prediction performance. Currently, the most up-to-date review of advanced machine learning techniques for financial time series prediction is still lacking, making it challenging for finance domain experts and relevant practitioners to determine which model potentially performs better, what techniques and components are involved, and how the model can be designed and implemented. This review article provides an overview of techniques, components and frameworks for financial time series prediction, with an emphasis on state-of-the-art deep learning models in the literature from 2015 to 2023, including standalone models like convolutional neural networks (CNN) that are capable of extracting spatial dependencies within data, and long short-term memory (LSTM) that is designed for handling temporal dependencies; and hybrid models integrating CNN, LSTM, attention mechanism (AM) and other techniques. For illustration and comparison purposes, models proposed in recent studies are mapped to relevant elements of a generalized framework comprised of input, output, feature extraction, prediction, and related processes. Among the state-of-the-art models, hybrid models like CNN-LSTM and CNN-LSTM-AM in general have been reported superior in performance to stand-alone models like the CNN-only model. Some remaining challenges have been discussed, including non-friendliness for finance domain experts, delayed prediction, domain knowledge negligence, lack of standards, and inability of real-time and high-frequency predictions. The principal contributions of this paper are to provide a one-stop guide for both academia and industry to review, compare and summarize technologies and recent advances in this area, to facilitate smooth and informed implementation, and to highlight future research directions