A Systematic Tradeoff Methodology for Acquiring and Validating Imprecise Requirements

Requirement analysis is one of the most important phases in a software development process. Existing requirement methodologies are limited in specifying requirements that are usually vague and imprecise, and in supporting tradeoff analysis between the conflicting requirements. In this paper, the elasticity of imprecise requirements is captured using fuzzy logic to facilitate tradeoffs between conflicting requirements. Based on the marginal rate of substitution in decision science, we have developed a systematic approach to elicit the structures and the parameters of imprecise requirements, to validate the scheme for aggregating requirements, and to assess relative priorities of conflicting requirements

Uncertainty Management of Intelligent Feature Selection in Wireless Sensor Networks

Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are envisioned to revolutionize the paradigm of monitoring complex real-world systems at a very high resolution. However, the deployment of a large number of unattended sensor nodes in hostile environments, frequent changes of environment dynamics, and severe resource constraints pose uncertainties and limit the potential use of WSN in complex real-world applications. Although uncertainty management in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is well developed and well investigated, its implications in wireless sensor environments are inadequately addressed. This dissertation addresses uncertainty management issues of spatio-temporal patterns generated from sensor data. It provides a framework for characterizing spatio-temporal pattern in WSN. Using rough set theory and temporal reasoning a novel formalism has been developed to characterize and quantify the uncertainties in predicting spatio-temporal patterns from sensor data. This research also uncovers the trade-off among the uncertainty measures, which can be used to develop a multi-objective optimization model for real-time decision making in sensor data aggregation and samplin

Multi-Criteria Decision Making in software development:a systematic literature review

Abstract. Multiple Criteria Decision Making is a formal approach to assist decision makers to select the best solutions among multiple alternatives by assessing criteria which are relatively precise but generally conflicting. The utilization of MCDM are quite popular and common in software development process. In this study, a systematic literature review which includes creating review protocol, selecting primary study, making classification schema, extracting data and other relevant steps was conducted. The objective of this study are making a summary about the state-of-the-art of MCDM in software development process and identifying the MCDM methods and MCDM problems in software development by systematically structuring and analyzing the literature on those issues. A total of 56 primary studies were identified after the review, and 33 types of MCDM methods were extracted from those primary studies. Among them, AHP was defined as the most frequent used MCDM methods in software development process by ranking the number of primary studies which applied it in their studies, and Pareto optimization was ranked in the second place. Meanwhile, 33 types of software development problems were identified. Components selection, design concepts selection and performance evaluation became the three most frequent occurred problems which need to be resolved by MCDM methods. Most of those MCDM problems were found in software design phase. There were many limitations to affect the quality of this study; however, the strictly-followed procedures of SLR and mass data from thousands of literature can still ensure the validity of this study, and this study is also able to provide the references when decision makers want to select the appropriate technique to cope with the MCDM problems

Robustness - a challenge also for the 21st century: A review of robustness phenomena in technical, biological and social systems as well as robust approaches in engineering, computer science, operations research and decision aiding

Notions on robustness exist in many facets. They come from different disciplines and reflect different worldviews. Consequently, they contradict each other very often, which makes the term less applicable in a general context. Robustness approaches are often limited to specific problems for which they have been developed. This means, notions and definitions might reveal to be wrong if put into another domain of validity, i.e. context. A definition might be correct in a specific context but need not hold in another. Therefore, in order to be able to speak of robustness we need to specify the domain of validity, i.e. system, property and uncertainty of interest. As proofed by Ho et al. in an optimization context with finite and discrete domains, without prior knowledge about the problem there exists no solution what so ever which is more robust than any other. Similar to the results of the No Free Lunch Theorems of Optimization (NLFTs) we have to exploit the problem structure in order to make a solution more robust. This optimization problem is directly linked to a robustness/fragility tradeoff which has been observed in many contexts, e.g. 'robust, yet fragile' property of HOT (Highly Optimized Tolerance) systems. Another issue is that robustness is tightly bounded to other phenomena like complexity for which themselves exist no clear definition or theoretical framework. Consequently, this review rather tries to find common aspects within many different approaches and phenomena than to build a general theorem for robustness, which anyhow might not exist because complex phenomena often need to be described from a pluralistic view to address as many aspects of a phenomenon as possible. First, many different robustness problems have been reviewed from many different disciplines. Second, different common aspects will be discussed, in particular the relationship of functional and structural properties. This paper argues that robustness phenomena are also a challenge for the 21st century. It is a useful quality of a model or system in terms of the 'maintenance of some desired system characteristics despite fluctuations in the behaviour of its component parts or its environment' (s. [Carlson and Doyle, 2002], p. 2). We define robustness phenomena as solution with balanced tradeoffs and robust design principles and robustness measures as means to balance tradeoffs. --

A collaborative expert system for group decision making in public policy

In the policy arena, there is high pressure to provide right and quick decisions for problems that are often poorly defined. There is hence an urgent need to support stakeholders in establishing a shared understanding of policy problems and to assist them in the design of potential solutions. Here we propose a formal methodology based on the construction and analysis of system maps, i.e., a graphical representation of the complex interdependencies of all relevant factors that affect the problem under study. Owing to their collaborative design, system maps provide a transparent tool with broad stakeholder acceptance to analyze ill-defined problems in a formal way. The construction of system maps involves expert elicitation to define system components, system boundaries, and interactions between system components, whereas the dynamical system behavior can be approximated by means of system dynamics. Although there is great value in the construction of the system map to enhance the understanding of the problem scenario, we consider this as an intermediate step. The final target is to present the full life-cycle of system maps and assist decision-makers in the entire decision-making process through the construction and analysis of system maps, i.e., from the understanding of the system behavior, to the definition of objectives and constraints, and finally the presentation of feasible solutions. System maps provides us with an effective framework to collect information dispersed over the experts, facilitate mediation, and analyze formally potential pathway solutions, meeting different criteria of optimality

Robust analysis of uncertainty in scientific assessments

Uncertainty refers to any limitation in knowledge. Identifying and characterizing uncertainty in conclusions is important to ensure transparency and avoid over or under confidence in scientific assessments. Quantitative expressions of uncertainty are less ambiguous compared to uncertainty expressed qualitatively, or not at all. Subjective probability is an example of a quantitative expression of epistemic uncertainty, which combined with Bayesian inference makes it possible to integrate evidence and characterizes uncertainty in quantities of interest. This thesis contributes to the understanding and implementation of robust Bayesian analysis as a way to integrate expert judgment and data into assessments and quantify uncertainty by bounded probability. The robust Bayesian framework is based on sets of probability for epistemic uncertainty, where precise probability is seen as a special case. This thesis covers applications relevant for scientific assessments, including evidence synthesis and quantitative risk assessment.Paper I proposes to combine two sampling methods: iterative importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, for quantifying uncertainty by bounded probability when Bayesian updating requires MCMC sampling. This opens up for robust Bayesian analysis to be applied to complex statistical models. To achieve this, an effective sample size of importance sampling that accounts for correlated MCMC samples is proposed. For illustration, the proposed method is applied to estimate the overall effect with bounded probability in a published meta-analysis within the Collaboration for Environmental Evidence on the effect of biomanipulation on freshwater lakes.Paper II demonstrates robust Bayesian analysis as a way to quantify uncertainty in a quantity of interest by bounded probability, and explicitly distinguishes between epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the assessment and learn parameters by integrating evidence into the model. Robust Bayesian analysis is described as a generalization of Bayesian analysis, including Bayesian analysis through precise probability as a special case. Both analyses are applied to an intake assessment.Paper III describes a way to consider uncertainty arising from ignorance or ambiguity about bias terms in a quantitative bias analysis by characterizing bias with imprecision. This is done by specifying bias with a set of bias terms and use robust Bayesian analysis to estimate the overall effect in the meta-analysis. The approach provides a structured framework to transform qualitative judgments concerning risk of biases into quantitative expressions of uncertainty in quantitative bias analysis.Paper IV compares the effect of different diversified farming practices on biodiversity and crop yields. This is done by applying a Bayesian network meta-analysis to a new public global database from a systematic protocol on diversified farming. A portfolio analysis calibrated by the network meta-analyses showed that uncertainty about the mean performance is large compared to the variability in performance across different farms

Optimal pilot decisions and flight trajectories in air combat

The thesis concerns the analysis and synthesis of pilot decision-making and the design of optimal flight trajectories. In the synthesis framework, the methodology of influence diagrams is applied for modeling and simulating the maneuvering decision process of the pilot in one-on-one air combat. The influence diagram representations describing the maneuvering decision in a one sided optimization setting and in a game setting are constructed. The synthesis of team decision-making in a multiplayer air combat is tackled by formulating a decision theoretical information prioritization approach based on a value function and interval analysis. It gives the team optimal sequence of tactical data that is transmitted between cooperating air units for improving the situation awareness of the friendly pilots in the best possible way. In the optimal trajectory planning framework, an approach towards the interactive automated solution of deterministic aircraft trajectory optimization problems is presented. It offers design principles for a trajectory optimization software that can be operated automatically by a nonexpert user. In addition, the representation of preferences and uncertainties in trajectory optimization is considered by developing a multistage influence diagram that describes a series of the maneuvering decisions in a one-on-one air combat setting. This influence diagram representation as well as the synthesis elaborations provide seminal ways to treat uncertainties in air combat modeling. The work on influence diagrams can also be seen as the extension of the methodology to dynamically evolving decision situations involving possibly multiple actors with conflicting objectives. From the practical point of view, all the synthesis models can be utilized in decision-making systems of air combat simulators. The information prioritization approach can also be implemented in an onboard data link system.reviewe