Modelling climate effects on Hungarian winter wheat and maize yields

Hungarian cereal production is situated in the zone of Europe which is most vulnerable to the effects of changes in climatic conditions. The objectives of this paper are to present the calibration and validation of the 4M crop simulation model using farm-level observed representative values, and to estimate the potential yields of winter wheat and maize production for the next three decades. Analysing the differences between the estimated and observed yields, we identified as key influencing factors the heterogeneity of technologies and of land quality. A trend of slightly decreasing yields is projected for the next three decades for both cereals. The precise impact of environmental change on crop yields will depend on which climate scenario occurs

4M — Software for Modelling and Analysing Cropping Systems

Models have played an important role in scientific research for a long time. The crop models try to simulate the functioning of the atmosphere-soil-plant system with the help of computers. These models can be effective tools in research, education and solving agricultural and environmental protection related problems. The 4M package includes a crop model and several accessories that help to operate the model. The 4M crop model is a daily-step, deterministic model that simulates the water and nutrient balance of the soil, the soil-plant interactions and the plant development and growth. To mention some examples: (1) The package can be used in education to carry out 'zero-cost' virtual agricultural experiments and to challenge and enhance the system oriented thinking of the students. (2) In research it can be used for designing experiments and estimating the present and future characteristics of the investigated system. (3) In practical applications the package can be used to prepare agro-technological advise (fertilization, irrigation, etc.) for farmers, and to carry out economical analyses on farm level