Predicting reference points and associated uncertainty from life histories for risk and status assessment

To assess status of fish populations and the risks of overexploitation, management bodies compare fishing mortality rates and abundance estimates with reference points (RP). Generic, “data-poor” methods for estimating RP are garnering attention because they are faster and cheaper to implement than those based on extensive life history data. Yet data-poor RP are subject to many unquantified uncertainties. Here, we predict fishing mortality RP based on five levels of increasingly comprehensive data, to quantify effects of parameter and structural uncertainty on RP. Level I RP (least data) are estimated solely from species' maximum size and generic life history relationships, while level V RP (most data) are estimated from population-specific growth and maturity data. By estimating RP at all five data levels, for each of 12 North Sea populations, we demonstrate marked changes in the median RP values, and to a lesser extent uncertainty, when growth parameters come from data rather than life history relationships. As a simple rule, halving the median level I RP gives almost 90% probability that a level V median RP is not exceeded. RP and uncertainty were substantially affected by assumed gear selectivity; plausible changes in selectivity had a greater effect on RP than adding level V data. Calculations of RP using data for successive individual years from 1984 to 2014 showed that the median RP based on data for any given year would often fall outside the range of uncertainty for RP based on data from earlier or later years. This highlighted the benefits of frequent RP updates when suitable data are available. Our approach provides a quantitative method to inform risk-based management and decisions about acceptable targets for data collection and quality. Ultimately, however, the utility and extent of adoption of data-poor methods for estimating RP will depend on the risk aversion of managers

Analysis Of Ecotourism Income Organic Vegetables On Agroforestri Land Of Kidul Pujon Village Kecamatan Pujon, Malang District

Abstract: The purposes of this study is to determine the increase and development of income through organic vegetable ecotourism on agroforestry land. This research was conducted in Pujon Kidul Village, Tulungrejo Hamlet in June - October 2018.The approach taken is participatory rural assessment, modification of Participatory Rural Appraisal / PRA in agroforestry farmers. The technique of determining respondents in this study uses purposive sampling.Intensive results of agroforestry (agrisilviculture) analysis, average agroforestry farmer income from carrot vegetable crops reached Rp.5568,750, - / harvest, large red chili reached Rp.6,160,000, - / harvest, cabbage reached Rp.2,220,000, - / harvest , mustard reached Rp. 3,077,778, - / harvest, shallot reached Rp. 8,350,000 / harvest, leek onion reached Rp 2,258,333, - / harvest, cayenne reached Rp 9,833,333, - / harvest, brongkoli reached Rp. 4,800,000, - / harvest, and eggplant reach Rp. 195,238, - / harvest. The average farmer income for agroforestry received revenue reaching Rp. 13,603,488, with total costs reaching Rp. 4,468,247, and the average profit reached Rp. 935,242. B / C Ratio value of 3.34. With these average profits, farmers have the potential in terms of economic improvement for forest farmers to live well. The production of Perhutani gum has an average land area of 10.5 ha. From that area it produces sap 267.1 Kg / Ha. The average income from the sale of sap reaches Rp 801.257, - / Ha. The existing stands are P. merksuii with an average diameter of 15.35 cm, average stand height of 15.35 meters, and the average number of stands per hectare as many as 403.95 trees.Farmers need to increase existing land intensification by paying attention to the level of development of agroforestry land so that it can provide optimum ecological and economicimpacts to the community

A prospective study on the persistence of infant crying, sleeping and feeding problems and preschool behaviour

Aim: To determine the persistence of regulatory problems (RP), i.e. excessive crying (>3 months of age), feeding and sleeping difficulties from infancy to preschool age, and to evaluate whether RP at 5 months are predictive of preschool adaptive behaviour and social skills. Method: A prospective population study of newborns admitted to neonatal care. RP at 5, 20 and 56 months of age were obtained via parent interviews and neurological examination and preschool adaptive behaviour and social skills by parent ratings. Logistic and linear regression analyses were conducted and controlled for psychosocial and neurological factors. Results: More than half of the sample had RP at least at one measurement point. In about 8% of infants, RP persisted across the preschool years. Multiple RP and feeding problems increased the odds of eating problems at 20 and 56 months. Persistent RP and feeding problems were predictive of deficits in preschool adaptive behaviour and social skills. In addition, sex differences were found. Conclusions: Multiple RP and feeding problems had the highest stability. Persistent RP were predictive of adverse social and adaptive behaviour. Understanding of the aetiology may help to prevent persistent RP

Analisis Kelayakan Finansial Usaha Perikanan Tangkap dengan Alat Tangkap Trammel Net di Kabupaten Rembang

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui karakteristik usaha perikanan tangkap trammel net dan untuk menganalisis kelayakan usaha sisi finansial dari usaha perikanan tangkap trammel net di Kabupaten Rembang. Variabel kelayakan usaha finansial yang diteliti dalam penelitian ini adalah NPV (net present value), IRR (internal rate of return), dan payback periods. Penelitian ini menggunakan kombinasi data primer dan sekunder. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa usaha perikanan tangkap trammel net di Kabupaten Rembang merupakan usaha berskala mikro, dengan nilai investasi perahu rata-rata sebesar Rp 22,3 juta, nilai investasi alat tangkap rata-rata sebesar Rp 5,05 juta, dan nilai investasi mesin rata-rata sebesar Rp 4,92 juta, sedangkan biaya perawatan aset rata-rata sebesar Rp. 4,10 juta/tahun, biaya BBM rata-rata sebesar Rp. 12,96 juta/tahun, biaya es rata-rata sebesar Rp. 0,99 juta/tahun, biaya perbekalan rata-rata sebesar Rp. 6,40 juta/tahun dan raman kotor rata-rata sebesar Rp. 42,31 juta/tahun. Selain itu, juga dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa usaha perikanan tangkap trammel net di Kabupaten Rembang bersifat feasible karena NPV bernilai positif (Rp 44,3 juta) dalam 10 tahun periode operasi penangkapan ikan, IRR (52%) lebih besar dari suku bunga yang ditetapkan dan payback periods (2,77 tahun) lebih cepat dari target waktu yang ditetapkan. This research aims to identified a characteristic of fishing business using trammel net and to analysed a financial feasibilty study to fishing business using trammel net in Regency of Rembang. Variable of research were NPV, IRR and payback periods. This research also used a primary and secondary data. This research proved if fishing business used trammel net in Rembang Regency could classify in micro-business, with investment cost average are Rp 22.3 million to boat, Rp 5.05 million to trammel net, and Rp 4.92 million to machine. Fishing business used trammel net in Rembang Regency also need Rp. 4.10 million/year to average of maintenance cost, Rp. 12.96 million/year to average of energy cost, Rp. 0.99 million/year to average of ice procurement cost, and Rp. 6.40 million/year to average of accomodation cost. The average of gross income in fishing business using trammel net was Rp. 42.31 million/year. This research proved if fishing business used trammel net was feasible, value of NPV was positive (Rp 44.3 million) in 10 years business operation, IRR (52%) greater than the target and payback periods (2.77 years) faster than the target

Conic sheaves on subanalytic sites and Laplace transform

In this paper we give a construction of conic sheaves on a subanalytic site and we extend the Fourier-Sato transform to this framework. Let E be a n dimensional complex vector space and let E^* be its dual. As an application we construct the conic sheaves \OO^t_{E_{\RP}} and \OO^w_{E_{\RP}} of tempered and Whitney holomorphic functions respectively and we give a sheaf theoretical interpretation of the Laplace isomorphisms of Kashiwara and Schapira which give the isomorphisms in the derived category \OO^{t\land}_{E_{\RP}}[n] \simeq \OO^t_{E^*_{\RP}} and \OO^{w\land}_{E_{\RP}}[n] \simeq \OO^w_{E^*_{\RP}}.Comment: 36 pages, uses xy-pi