Spatial and spatiotemporal variation in metapopulation structure affects population dynamics in a passively dispersing arthropod

The spatial and temporal variation in the availability of suitable habitat within metapopulations determines colonization-extinction events, regulates local population sizes and eventually affects local population and metapopulation stability. Insights into the impact of such a spatiotemporal variation on the local population and metapopulation dynamics are principally derived from classical metapopulation theory and have not been experimentally validated. By manipulating spatial structure in artificial metapopulations of the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, we test to which degree spatial (mainland-island metapopulations) and spatiotemporal variation (classical metapopulations) in habitat availability affects the dynamics of the metapopulations relative to systems where habitat is constantly available in time and space (patchy metapopulations). Our experiment demonstrates that (i) spatial variation in habitat availability decreases variance in metapopulation size and decreases density-dependent dispersal at the metapopulation level, while (ii) spatiotemporal variation in habitat availability increases patch extinction rates, decreases local population and metapopulation sizes and decreases density dependence in population growth rates. We found dispersal to be negatively density dependent and overall low in the spatial variable mainland-island metapopulation. This demographic variation subsequently impacts local and regional population dynamics and determines patterns of metapopulation stability. Both local and metapopulation-level variabilities are minimized in mainland-island metapopulations relative to classical and patchy ones

On the impact of dispersal asymmetry on metapopulation persistence

Metapopulation theory for a long time has assumed dispersal to be symmetric, i.e. patches are connected through migrants dispersing bi-directionally without a preferred direction. However, for natural populations symmetry is often broken, e.g. for species in the marine environment dispersing through the transport of pelagic larvae with ocean currents. The few recent studies of asymmetric dispersal concluded, that asymmetry has a distinct negative impact on the persistence of metapopulations. Detailed analysis however revealed, that these previous studies might have been unable to properly disentangle the effect of symmetry from other potentially confounding properties of dispersal patterns. We resolve this issue by systematically investigating the symmetry of dispersal patterns and its impact on metapopulation persistence. Our main analysis based on a metapopulation model equivalent to previous studies but now applied on regular dispersal patterns aims to isolate the effect of dispersal symmetry on metapopulation persistence. Our results suggest, that asymmetry in itself does not imply negative effects on metapopulation persistence. For this reason we recommend to investigate it in connection with other properties of dispersal instead of in isolation.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figure

Effects of demographic noise on the synchronization of a metapopulation in a fluctuating environment

We use the theory of noise-induced phase synchronization to analyze the effects of demographic noise on the synchronization of a metapopulation of predator-prey systems within a fluctuating environment (Moran effect). Treating each local predator–prey population as a stochastic urn model, we derive a Langevin equation for the stochastic dynamics of the metapopulation. Assuming each local population acts as a limit cycle oscillator in the deterministic limit, we use phase reduction and averaging methods to derive the steady state probability density for pairwise phase differences between oscillators, which is then used to determine the degree of synchronization of\ud the metapopulation

Persistence in epidemic metapopulations: quantifying the rescue effects for measles, mumps, rubella and whooping cough

Metapopulation rescue effects are thought to be key to the persistence of many acute immunizing infections. Yet the enhancement of persistence through spatial coupling has not been previously quantified. Here we estimate the metapopulation rescue effects for four childhood infections using global WHO reported incidence data by comparing persistence on island countries vs all other countries, while controlling for key variables such as vaccine cover, birth rates and economic development. The relative risk of extinction on islands is significantly higher, and approximately double the risk of extinction in mainland countries. Furthermore, as may be expected, infections with longer infectious periods tend to have the strongest metapopulation rescue effects. Our results quantitate the notion that demography and local community size controls disease persistence

Seabird metapopulations: searching for alternative breeding habitats

Today, many seabird species nest in port areas, which are also necessary for human economic activity. In this paper, we evaluate, using a metapopulation model, the possibilities for creating alternative breeding sites for the Common Tern (Sterna hirundo) in the Rhine¿Meuse¿Scheldt estuary. We explore 22 scenarios that differ with respect to (1) loss of breeding habitat in port areas, (2) location and size of newly created habitat, and (3) coexistence of old and new habitat. Results indicate that loss of port area habitats results in a serious 41% decline in the breeding population. When the loss in ports is compensated for within the ports, the decline was negligible. Fourteen scenarios result in an increase of the Common Tern metapopulation. In these, extra breeding habitat is created outside the ports in fish-rich waters, resulting in a potential metapopulation increase of 25%. However, the period of overlap between lost and newly created habitat strongly affects the results. A gap between the removal of old and the creation of new breeding areas might cause a drop in the metapopulation level of 30%. The population recovery from this drop might take more than 100 years due to slow recolonization. Our results suggest that conservation of seabird species should be evaluated on a metapopulation scale and that the creation of new habitat may help to compensate for habitat loss in other areas. Furthermore, the results indicate that overlap between the existence of old and newly created breeding habitats is crucial for the success of compensation efforts. However, new locations should be carefully selected, because not only is the suitability of the breeding grounds important, but ample fish availability nearby is also ke

Spread of Infectious Diseases with a Latent Period

Infectious diseases spread through human networks. Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model is one of the epidemic models to describe infection dynamics on a complex network connecting individuals. In the metapopulation SIR model, each node represents a population (group) which has many individuals. In this paper, we propose a modified metapopulation SIR model in which a latent period is taken into account. We call it SIIR model. We divide the infection period into two stages: an infected stage, which is the same as the previous model, and a seriously ill stage, in which individuals are infected and cannot move to the other populations. The two infectious stages in our modified metapopulation SIR model produce a discontinuous final size distribution. Individuals in the infected stage spread the disease like individuals in the seriously ill stage and never recover directly, which makes an effective recovery rate smaller than the given recovery rate.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figure

Rules of thumb for conservation of metapopulations based on a stochastic winking-patch model

From a theoretical viewpoint, nature management basically has two options to prolong metapopulation persistence: decreasing local extinction probabilities and increasing colonization probabilities. This article focuses on those options with a stochastic, single-species metapopulation model. We found that for most combinations of local extinction probabilities and colonization probabilities, decreasing the former increases metapopulation extinction time more than does increasing the latter by the same amount. Only for relatively low colonization probabilities is an effort to increase these probabilities more beneficial, but even then, decreasing extinction probabilities does not seem much less effective. Furthermore, we found the following rules of thumb. First, if one focuses on extinction, one should preferably decrease the lowest local extinction probability. Only if the extinction probabilities are (almost) equal should one prioritize decreases in the local extinction probability of the patch with the best direct connections to and from other patches. Second, if one focuses on colonization, one should preferably increase the colonization probability between the patches with the lowest local extinction probability. Only if the local extinction probabilities are (almost) equal should one instead prioritize increases in the highest colonization probability (unless extinction probabilities and colonization probabilities are very low). The rules of thumb have an important common denominator: the local extinction process has a greater bearing on metapopulation extinction time than colonization