Maximum Entropy Production Principle for Stock Returns

In our previous studies we have investigated the structural complexity of time series describing stock returns on New York's and Warsaw's stock exchanges, by employing two estimators of Shannon's entropy rate based on Lempel-Ziv and Context Tree Weighting algorithms, which were originally used for data compression. Such structural complexity of the time series describing logarithmic stock returns can be used as a measure of the inherent (model-free) predictability of the underlying price formation processes, testing the Efficient-Market Hypothesis in practice. We have also correlated the estimated predictability with the profitability of standard trading algorithms, and found that these do not use the structure inherent in the stock returns to any significant degree. To find a way to use the structural complexity of the stock returns for the purpose of predictions we propose the Maximum Entropy Production Principle as applied to stock returns, and test it on the two mentioned markets, inquiring into whether it is possible to enhance prediction of stock returns based on the structural complexity of these and the mentioned principle.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Kirchhoff's Loop Law and the maximum entropy production principle

In contrast to the standard derivation of Kirchhoff's loop law, which invokes electric potential, we show, for the linear planar electric network in a stationary state at the fixed temperature,that loop law can be derived from the maximum entropy production principle. This means that the currents in network branches are distributed in such a way as to achieve the state of maximum entropy production.Comment: revtex4, 5 pages, 2 figure

A story and a recommendation about the principle of maximum entropy production

The principle of maximum entropy production (MEP) is the subject of considerable academic study, but has yet to become remarkable for its practical applications. A tale is told of an instance in which a spin-off from consideration of an MEP-constrained climate model at least led to re-consideration of the very practical issue of water-vapour feedback in climate change. Further, and on a more-or-less unrelated matter, a recommendation is made for further research on whether there might exist a general "rule" whereby, for certain classes of complex non-linear systems, a state of maximum entropy production is equivalent to a state of minimum entropy

Entropy production selects nonequilibrium states in multistable systems

Far-from-equilibrium thermodynamics underpins the emergence of life, but how has been a long-outstanding puzzle. Best candidate theories based on the maximum entropy production principle could not be unequivocally proven, in part due to complicated physics, unintuitive stochastic thermodynamics, and the existence of alternative theories such as the minimum entropy production principle. Here, we use a simple, analytically solvable, one-dimensional bistable chemical system to demonstrate the validity of the maximum entropy production principle. To generalize to multistable stochastic system, we use the stochastic least-action principle to derive the entropy production and its role in the stability of nonequilibrium steady states. This shows that in a multistable system, all else being equal, the steady state with the highest entropy production is favored, with a number of implications for the evolution of biological, physical, and geological systems.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

Jaynes' MaxEnt, Steady State Flow Systems and the Maximum Entropy Production Principle

Jaynes' maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle was recently used to give a conditional, local derivation of the ``maximum entropy production'' (MEP) principle, which states that a flow system with fixed flow(s) or gradient(s) will converge to a steady state of maximum production of thermodynamic entropy (R.K. Niven, Phys. Rev. E, in press). The analysis provides a steady state analog of the MaxEnt formulation of equilibrium thermodynamics, applicable to many complex flow systems at steady state. The present study examines the classification of physical systems, with emphasis on the choice of constraints in MaxEnt. The discussion clarifies the distinction between equilibrium, fluid flow, source/sink, flow/reactive and other systems, leading into an appraisal of the application of MaxEnt to steady state flow and reactive systems.Comment: 6 pages; paper for MaxEnt0

Present and Last Glacial Maximum climates as states of maximum entropy production

The Earth, like other planets with a relatively thick atmosphere, is not locally in radiative equilibrium and the transport of energy by the geophysical fluids (atmosphere and ocean) plays a fundamental role in determining its climate. Using simple energy-balance models, it was suggested a few decades ago that the meridional energy fluxes might follow a thermodynamic Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) principle. In the present study, we assess the MEP hypothesis in the framework of a minimal climate model based solely on a robust radiative scheme and the MEP principle, with no extra assumptions. Specifically, we show that by choosing an adequate radiative exchange formulation, the Net Exchange Formulation, a rigorous derivation of all the physical parameters can be performed. The MEP principle is also extended to surface energy fluxes, in addition to meridional energy fluxes. The climate model presented here is extremely fast, needs very little empirical data and does not rely on ad hoc parameterizations. We investigate its range of validity by comparing its performances for pre-industrial climate and Last Glacial Maximum climate with corresponding simulations with the IPSL coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model IPSL_CM4, finding reasonable agreement. Beyond the practical interest of this result for climate modelling, it supports the idea that, to a certain extent, climate can be characterized with macroscale features with no need to compute the underlying microscale dynamics.Comment: Submitted to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Societ