Forecasting Global Flows

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables by ARs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the beginning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the forecasting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the level based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases.International Economics, Time Series Models, Forecasts, Forecast Evaluation, Global Flows

Forecasting Global Flows*

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a comovement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables by ARs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the beginning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the forecasting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the level based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases

Forecasting Global Flows

The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business cycle. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a co-movement among oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables by ARs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information criteria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the beginning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the forecasting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the level based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases.International economics, time series models, forecasts, forecast evaluation

Global Flows with Invariant Measures for the Inviscid Modified SQG Equations

We consider the family known as modified or generalized surface quasi-geostrophic equations (mSQG) consisting of the classical inviscid surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) equation together with a family of regularized active scalars given by introducing a smoothing operator of nonzero but possibly arbitrarily small degree. This family naturally interpolates between the 2D Euler equation and the SQG equation. For this family of equations we construct an invariant measure on a rough $L^2$-based Sobolev space and establish the existence of solutions of arbitrarily large lifespan for initial data in a set of full measure in the rough Sobolev space.Comment: 18 page

In comparative perspective: the effects of incarceration abroad on penal subjectivity among prisoners in Lithuania

This article looks at how global flows of people and policies affect penal subjectivity among prisoners in Lithuania. Those who had previously been incarcerated abroad perceive their punishment in Lithuania’s reforming penal system in comparative terms. We find that international prison experience may either diminish or increase the sense of the severity of the current punishment. Respondents often felt more comfortable in a familiar culture of punishment in Lithuania that emphasizes autonomy and communality. Moreover, internationalized prisoners perceive prison reform emulating West European models as a threat to this culture and are able to articulate comparative critiques of this reform and contest its effects

Michel accretion of a polytropic fluid with adiabatic index gamma > 5/3: Global flows versus homoclinic orbits

We analyze the properties of a polytropic fluid which is radially accreted into a Schwarzschild black hole. The case where the adiabatic index gamma lies in the range 1 < gamma <= 5/3 has been treated in previous work. In this article we analyze the complementary range 5/3 < gamma <= 2. To this purpose, the problem is cast into an appropriate Hamiltonian dynamical system whose phase flow is analyzed. While for 1 < gamma <= 5/3 the solutions are always characterized by the presence of a unique critical saddle point, we show that when 5/3 < gamma <= 2, an additional critical point might appear which is a center point. For the parametrization used in this paper we prove that whenever this additional critical point appears, there is a homoclinic orbit.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

В портфеле редакции

This paper argues that global linkages, flows and circulations merit a more central place in theorization about local development. In particular, we make connections across two dominant types of global flows that shape our world tremendously: international migration and large-scale land investments. The paper compares the two hypes and underlines the similarities in their genealogy, rhetoric and push for good governance as a solution. It then maps out the emergent geographies of local development given rise by these two ntersecting global flows and discusses how they hinder the road to inclusive and sustainable development. While analysing the consequences of the two global flows, we probe the mileage of two interlinked influential concepts in development studies: the notion 'development as freedom' and the Sustainable Livelihood Approach. We conclude that the relational aspects of livelihood and development, positionality of the local vis-à-vis the global or external, and transformations coming from the outside should be central in our renewed conceptualisation about local development