Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.ADEMA (Asociación para el Desarrollo Endógeno de la Comarca de Almazán y otros municipios) and Junta de Castilla y León, Consejería de Medio Ambiente, funded plots establishment, monitoring and maintenance during 15 years. This research was carried out in the currently closed Centro de Investigación Forestal de Valonsadero (Junta de Castilla y León, Spain), whose staff did an invaluable work in the maintenance of the experimental plots. We also thank David Brown for English language advice. Editor and two referees’ comments improved a previous version. Elaboration of this document has been partially funded by CGL2012-34209 and AGL-2012-40035-CO3-01 from Spanish Mineco.Peer Reviewe