Creditor coordination with social learning and endogenous timing of credit decisions

In case of multiple source lending even solvent firms may be forced into bankruptcy due to uncoordinated credit withdrawals of their lenders. This paper analyzes whether a debtor firm can thwart such inefficient liquidations by offering creditors the option to delay their foreclosure decision rather than obliging them to simultaneous actions as suggested by Morris and Shin (2004). With this option, lenders can endogenously determine the timing of their credit decisions, trading of the informational benefit from waiting against the associated cost of delay. Our results state that the option to delay diminishes creditor coordination failure whenever the firm is expected to be in distress. --global games,creditor coordination failure,option to delay,social learning

Forbearance lending and soft budget constraints in a model of multiple heterogeneous bank financing

Empirical evidence suggests that banks often engage in refinancing of intrinsically insolvent debtors instead of writing of their non-performing loans. Such forbearance lending may induce soft budget constraints for the debtors, as it diminishes their incentives to thwart default. This paper introduces a model of coordination failure to analyze how a relationship bank affects the incidence of forbearance lending and soft budget constraints by signaling its credit decision to other creditors. We find that the relationship bank's signaling ability enhances its incentives to engage in forbearance lending and infuences the conditions under which debtors face soft budget constraints. --coordination failure,global games,asymmetric information,forbearance lending,soft budget constraints

IMF's assistance: Devil's kiss or guardian angel?

This paper contributes to the debate on the efficacy of IMF's catalytic finance in preventing financial crises. Extending Morris and Shin (2006), we consider that the IMF's intervention policy usually exerts a signaling effect on private creditors and that several interventions in sequence may be necessary to avert an impending crisis. Absent of the IMF's signaling ability, our results state that repeated intervention is required to bail out a country, where by additional assistance may induce moral hazard on the debtor side. Contrarily, if the IMF exerts a strong signaling effect, one single intervention suffices to avoid liquidity crises. --catalytic finance,debtor moral hazard,global games

Signalling effects of a large player in a global game of creditor coordination

In case of multiple creditors a coordination problem can arise when the borrowingfirm runs into financial distress. Even if the project's value at maturity is enoughto pay all creditors in full, some creditors may be tempted to foreclose on theirloans. We develop a model of creditor coordination where a large creditor movesbefore a continuum of small creditors, and analyze the signalling effects of the largecreditor's investment decision on the subsequent behavior of the small creditors. Thesignalling effects crucially depend on the relative size of the large creditor and therelative precision of information. We derive conditions under which pure herdingbehavior is to be expected. --creditor coordination,global games

Neighbourhood context and its contribution to urban health inequalities

The neighbourhood environment in which people live has gained increasing attention in epidemiological research. This dissertation investigated relationships between contextual neighbourhood factors and individual health with a focus on the built environment and its contribution to health inequalities on the neighbourhood level. Furthermore, this dissertation developed new approaches and applied new statistical methods to analyse environmental inequalities in an urban context with a particular focus on public green space and its distribution by socioeconomic neighbourhood characteristics. Firstly, in a systematic review multilevel studies which considered both neighbourhood socioeconomic position (SEP) and objectively measured factors of the built environment were assessed in order to disentangle their independent and interactive effects on individual health outcomes and health behaviours. Secondly, two multilevel analyses of cross-sectional data in the city of Munich investigated whether neighbourhood SEP, public playground and park space, and parentally perceived environmental exposures were independently associated with overweight in preschool aged children while simultaneously considering individual child and family factors. Thirdly, two ecological neighbourhood studies in the city of Dortmund and Munich were conducted to assess whether air and noise pollution and public green space were disproportionately distributed by the degree of neighbourhood deprivation. The systematic review identified a great heterogeneity of definitions applied and metrics being used for measuring built and socioeconomic neighbourhood variables. Mostly mixed results across multilevel studies on how built and socioeconomic neighbourhood environments were associated with health and health-related behaviours were found. Furthermore, the review identified several interactions between contextual neighbourhood factors and individual factors, mostly concerning sex or individual SEP. The two multilevel studies showed that in the case of childhood overweight individual factors, such as parental education or parental overweight, were the most important determinants. However, perceived and objective built environmental factors additionally explained overweight variance between neighbourhoods. The two ecological case studies found out that deprived neighbourhoods were more exposed to air pollution and low public green space availability than more affluent neighbourhoods. This dissertation recommends that apart from individual determinants policies and interventions targeting health promotion should consider the neighbourhood environment additionally. Moreover, a socioeconomic unequal distribution of environmental burdens and resources may result in amplifications of health inequalities within cities. There is a need for further studies considering multiple neighbourhood dimensions in order to analyse interactive and mediating pathways between contextual factors and individual health. The development of new approaches and methods for analysing and assessing environmental health inequalities will contribute to the reconnection of urban planning and public health

Application of Next-Generation Sequencing in Microbiology:from Clinical Diagnostics to One Health Surveillance

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a process of massively parallel sequencing of nucleic acids. It can be applied to single pathogens from a pure culture to determine the whole genome but also directly to clinical, animal, and environmental samples to detect microorganisms and antimicrobial resistance markers without a priori knowledge of the target sequences. Genomic identification and characterization of microorganisms in humans and animals are about to become a game-changer for diagnosing, monitoring, and controlling infectious diseases. This thesis aimed to assess the application of culture-dependent and culture-independent NGS approaches in diagnosing and monitoring infectious diseases within and outside the hospital