Comparing Behavioural Heterogeneity Across Asset Classes

We estimate an endowment-based asset pricing model in which agents have heterogeneous and time-varying beliefs about the future price on a range of asset classes. This gives insight into the extent behaviour differs across assets, and what this implies for market stability. We find evidence for behavioural heterogeneity for all asset classes but equity. Heterogeneity is especially large and persistent in asset classes for which limits to arbitrage are more binding. In less constrained (financial) markets, agents update their beliefs more frequently. Consequently, the probability of behavioural bubbles and crashes is substantially higher in macroeconomic asset classes than in financial asset classes

Measurement, Dynamics, and Implications of Heterogeneous Beliefs in Financial Markets

__Abstract__ This dissertation is part of a growing research field in which the heterogeneity of economic actors is incorporated. It bundles four studies that consider the m

Титульные страницы и содержание

This study gives an overview of Project STARS (Studies on Trajectories of Adolescent Relationships and Sexuality), a four-wave longitudinal study of 1297 Dutch adolescents. First, the sample, measures and four sub-projects are described. Second, hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to examine how key variables from the individual domain (impulsivity), parent domain (parent-adolescent relationship quality), peer domain (involvement with peers) and media domain (time spent on social networking sites), and their interactions predict changes in the experience with sexual behaviour of adolescents across time. Results showed that higher levels of impulsivity, lower quality of relation with parents, more frequent involvement with peers and more time spent on social networking sites at baseline predicted increases in sexual experience of adolescents over a subsequent 1.5-year time period. No interaction effects among the domains were found. The findings highlight the significance of a multi-domain approach to the study of adolescent sexual development

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Nonlinearities in the Relationship Between Oil Price Changes and Movements in the Norwegian Krone

Anecdotal evidence as well as previous empirical analysis indicates that the relation between oil price changes and movements in the Norwegian krone is not stable over time. We can observe that there is no or only a weakly significant correlation between oil price changes and Norwegian krone depreciation in some periods, but a strong correlation in other periods. This memo proposes some explanations for these nonlinearities and summarizes the results of empirical tests conducted to investigate the nonlinearities in the oil price-Norwegian krone relation. It is found that the Norwegian krone reacts stronger to oil price changes when these are larger than average, and that the most relevant threshold level for the 2014 price drop was USD 75

Oil Price Shocks and the Norwegian Effective Exchange Rate – an SVAR Approach

We employ a structural VAR model to investigate direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the Norwegian effective exchange rate (I44). The model is estimated on different subsamples and with different model specifications. Our main finding is that the direct effect of oil price shocks on the I44 has increased over time, independent of the model specification we choose. Furthermore, an increasing impact of oil shocks on interest rates and an increased impact of interest rates on the I44 account for the rise in the indirect impact of oil on the I44 over time. We further find that long (short) term interest differentials become relatively more (less) important for explaining movements in the I44 during recent samples. A possible interpretation could be the (zero) lower bound and unconventional monetary policy conducted by Norway’s trading partners

Nonlinearities in the Relationship Between Oil Price Changes and Movements in the Norwegian Krone

Anecdotal evidence as well as previous empirical analysis indicates that the relation between oil price changes and movements in the Norwegian krone is not stable over time. We can observe that there is no or only a weakly significant correlation between oil price changes and Norwegian krone depreciation in some periods, but a strong correlation in other periods. This memo proposes some explanations for these nonlinearities and summarizes the results of empirical tests conducted to investigate the nonlinearities in the oil price-Norwegian krone relation. It is found that the Norwegian krone reacts stronger to oil price changes when these are larger than average, and that the most relevant threshold level for the 2014 price drop was USD 75

Forward Guidance Through Interest Rate Projections: Does It Work?

Based on high-frequency data for Norway and Sweden, we investigate to what extent explicit forward guidance from monetary policy makers, by means of publishing the path of expected future policy rates, affects the market yield curve. We summarise movements in the yield curve by two latent factors (the 'target factor' and 'market path factor'), which capture market participants' assessment of all relevant monetary policy communication made available on announcement days. We then show that information contained in the published interest rate path has a significant effect on the market path, and can explain up to 47% of the market path factor. Hence, we conclude that 'explicit' forward guidance in the form of publishing the interest rate path succeeds in moving markets in the desired direction. Furthermore, our results show that central bank and market revisions of interest rate expectations are strongly correlated. This suggests that market participants to a large extent understand the monetary policy reaction pattern.publishedVersio