Improving Simulation Efficiency of MCMC for Inverse Modeling of Hydrologic Systems with a Kalman-Inspired Proposal Distribution

Bayesian analysis is widely used in science and engineering for real-time forecasting, decision making, and to help unravel the processes that explain the observed data. These data are some deterministic and/or stochastic transformations of the underlying parameters. A key task is then to summarize the posterior distribution of these parameters. When models become too difficult to analyze analytically, Monte Carlo methods can be used to approximate the target distribution. Of these, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are particularly powerful. Such methods generate a random walk through the parameter space and, under strict conditions of reversibility and ergodicity, will successively visit solutions with frequency proportional to the underlying target density. This requires a proposal distribution that generates candidate solutions starting from an arbitrary initial state. The speed of the sampled chains converging to the target distribution deteriorates rapidly, however, with increasing parameter dimensionality. In this paper, we introduce a new proposal distribution that enhances significantly the efficiency of MCMC simulation for highly parameterized models. This proposal distribution exploits the cross-covariance of model parameters, measurements and model outputs, and generates candidate states much alike the analysis step in the Kalman filter. We embed the Kalman-inspired proposal distribution in the DREAM algorithm during burn-in, and present several numerical experiments with complex, high-dimensional or multi-modal target distributions. Results demonstrate that this new proposal distribution can greatly improve simulation efficiency of MCMC. Specifically, we observe a speed-up on the order of 10-30 times for groundwater models with more than one-hundred parameters

A hybrid many-objective optimization algorithm for task offloading and resource allocation in multi-server mobile edge computing networks

Mobile edge computing (MEC) is an effective computing tool to cope with the explosive growth of data traffic. It plays a vital role in improving the quality of service for user task computing. However, the existing solutions rarely address all the significant factors that impact the quality of service. To challenge this problem, a trusted many-objective model is built by comprehensively considering the task time delay, server energy consumption, trust metrics between task and server, and user experience utility factors in multi-server MEC networks. We decompose the original problem into task offloading (TO) and resource allocation (RA) to address the model. Then a novel hybrid many-objective optimization algorithm based on cascading clustering and incremental learning is designed to optimize the TO decision solutions. A low-complexity heuristic method is adopted based on the optimal TO decision solutions to optimize the RA problem continuously. To verify the model’s validity and the optimisation algorithm’s superiority, five other advanced many-objective algorithms are used for comparison. The results show that our algorithm has more than half the number of the superior values for the benchmark problem. The obtained model solution shows good performance on different indicators metrics for the decomposition problem

Many-objective optimization-based intrusion detection for in-vehicle network security

In-vehicle network security plays a vital role in ensuring the secure information transfer between vehicle and Internet. And existing research is still facing great difficulties in balancing the conflicting factors for the in-vehicle network security and hence to improve intrusion detection performance. To challenge this issue, we construct a many-objective intrusion detection model by including information entropy, accuracy, false positive rate and response time of anomaly detection as the four objectives, which represent the key factors influencing intrusion detection performance. We then design an improved intrusion detection algorithm based on many-objective optimization to optimize the detection model parameters. The designed algorithm has double evolutionary selections. Specifically, an improved differential evolutionary operator produces new offspring of the internal population, and a spherical pruning mechanism selects the excellent internal solutions to form the selected pool of the external archive. The second evolutionary selection then produces new offspring of the archive, and an archive selection mechanism of the external archive selects and stores the optimal solutions in the whole detection process. An experiment is performed using a real-world in-vehicle network data set to verify the performance of our proposed model and algorithm. Experimental results obtained demonstrate that our algorithm can respond quickly to attacks and achieve high entropy and detection accuracy as well as very low false positive rate with a good trade-off in the conflicting objective landscape

Loss of work productivity in a warming world: differences between developed and developing countries

Comparable estimates of the heat-related work productivity loss (WPL) in different countries over the world are difficult partly due to the lack of exact measures and comparable data for different counties. In this study, we analysed 4363 responses to a global online survey on the WPL during heat waves in 2016. The participants were from both developed and developing countries, facilitating estimates of the heat-related WPL across the world for the year. The heat-related WPL for each country involved was then deduced for increases of 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C in the global mean surface temperature under the representative concentration pathway scenarios in climate models. The average heat-related WPL in 2016 was 6.6 days for developing countries and 3.5 days for developed countries. The estimated heat-related WPL was negatively correlated with the gross domestic product per capita. When global surface temperatures increased by 1.5, 2, 3 and 4 °C, the corresponding WPL was 9 (19), 12 (31), 22 (61) and 33 (94) days for developed (developing) countries, quantifying how developing countries are more vulnerable to climate change from a particular point of view. Moreover, the heat-related WPL was unevenly distributed among developing countries. In a 2°C-warmer world, the heat-related WPL would be more than two months in Southeast Asia, the most influenced region. The results are considerable for developing strategy of adaptation especially for developing countries

Altered metabolite levels and correlations in patients with colorectal cancer and polyps detected using seemingly unrelated regression analysis

Introduction: Metabolomics technologies enable the identification of putative biomarkers for numerous diseases; however, the influence of confounding factors on metabolite levels poses a major challenge in moving forward with such metabolites for pre-clinical or clinical applications. Objectives: To address this challenge, we analyzed metabolomics data from a colorectal cancer (CRC) study, and used seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to account for the effects of confounding factors including gender, BMI, age, alcohol use, and smoking. Methods: A SUR model based on 113 serum metabolites quantified using targeted mass spectrometry, identified 20 metabolites that differentiated CRC patients (n = 36), patients with polyp (n = 39), and healthy subjects (n = 83). Models built using different groups of biologically related metabolites achieved improved differentiation and were significant for 26 out of 29 groups. Furthermore, the networks of correlated metabolites constructed for all groups of metabolites using the ParCorA algorithm, before or after application of the SUR model, showed significant alterations for CRC and polyp patients relative to healthy controls. Results: The results showed that demographic covariates, such as gender, BMI, BMI2, and smoking status, exhibit significant confounding effects on metabolite levels, which can be modeled effectively. Conclusion: These results not only provide new insights into addressing the major issue of confounding effects in metabolomics analysis, but also shed light on issues related to establishing reliable biomarkers and the biological connections between them in a complex disease