Practical Bayesian Modeling and Inference for Massive Spatial Datasets On Modest Computing Environments

With continued advances in Geographic Information Systems and related computational technologies, statisticians are often required to analyze very large spatial datasets. This has generated substantial interest over the last decade, already too vast to be summarized here, in scalable methodologies for analyzing large spatial datasets. Scalable spatial process models have been found especially attractive due to their richness and flexibility and, particularly so in the Bayesian paradigm, due to their presence in hierarchical model settings. However, the vast majority of research articles present in this domain have been geared toward innovative theory or more complex model development. Very limited attention has been accorded to approaches for easily implementable scalable hierarchical models for the practicing scientist or spatial analyst. This article is submitted to the Practice section of the journal with the aim of developing massively scalable Bayesian approaches that can rapidly deliver Bayesian inference on spatial process that are practically indistinguishable from inference obtained using more expensive alternatives. A key emphasis is on implementation within very standard (modest) computing environments (e.g., a standard desktop or laptop) using easily available statistical software packages without requiring message-parsing interfaces or parallel programming paradigms. Key insights are offered regarding assumptions and approximations concerning practical efficiency.Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

Multilocal programming and applications

Preprint versionMultilocal programming aims to identify all local minimizers of unconstrained or constrained nonlinear optimization problems. The multilocal programming theory relies on global optimization strategies combined with simple ideas that are inspired in deflection or stretching techniques to avoid convergence to the already detected local minimizers. The most used methods to solve this type of problems are based on stochastic procedures and a population of solutions. In general, population-based methods are computationally expensive but rather reliable in identifying all local solutions. In this chapter, a review on recent techniques for multilocal programming is presented. Some real-world multilocal programming problems based on chemical engineering process design applications are described.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

A Metaheuristic Framework for Bi-level Programming Problems with Multi-disciplinary Applications

Bi-level programming problems arise in situations when the decision maker has to take into account the responses of the users to his decisions. Several problems arising in engineering and economics can be cast within the bi-level programming framework. The bi-level programming model is also known as a Stackleberg or leader-follower game in which the leader chooses his variables so as to optimise his objective function, taking into account the response of the follower(s) who separately optimise their own objectives, treating the leader’s decisions as exogenous. In this chapter, we present a unified framework fully consistent with the Stackleberg paradigm of bi-level programming that allows for the integration of meta-heuristic algorithms with traditional gradient based optimisation algorithms for the solution of bi-level programming problems. In particular we employ Differential Evolution as the main meta-heuristic in our proposal.We subsequently apply the proposed method (DEBLP) to a range of problems from many fields such as transportation systems management, parameter estimation and game theory. It is demonstrated that DEBLP is a robust and powerful search heuristic for this class of problems characterised by non smoothness and non convexity

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Severe decrease in SpO2 and methemoglobinemia following subareolar isosulfan blue administration and clinical relevance

The level of axillary lymph node involvement in breast cancer is a critical decision factor for adjuvant therapy and the most important indicator of prognosis and survival. Sentinel lymph node biopsy is a minimally invasive technique with low morbidity in axillary staging of breast cancer. Radiocolloid substances (Technetium-99m) and/or blue dyes such as methylene blue or isosulfan blue are used during sentinel lymph node biopsy. Isosulfan blue stain is frequently used in sentinel lymph node biopsy and rarely causes complications. The present case report presents a severe decrease in SpO2 due to methemoglobinemia following isosulfan blue administration as well as skin and urine signs and inconsistency with clinical picture in a 67-year-old, 77 kg, ASA II female case who underwent sentinel lymph node biopsy under general anesthesia. © 2018 Turkish Surgical Association

The value of 18F-FDG PET/CT imaging in breast cancer staging

PubMed ID: 28763628The National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines recommend assessment with positron emission tomography with 2-deoxy-2-[fluorine-18]fluoro- D-glucose integrated with computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) in staging of breast cancer, starting from the stage IIIA. Previously, PET/CT contributed to the accurate staging from the stage IIB. Our aim is to evaluate the contribution of18F-FDG PET/CT in staging of breast cancer patients. A total of 234 patients were retrospectively evaluated. PET/CT was performed preoperatively in 114/234 and postoperatively in 120/234 patients. Initial staging was performed based on histopathological results in 125/234 and clinical results in 109/234 patients, according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification. All patients had a normal abdominal ultrasound and chest x-ray. Following PET/CT imaging, modification in the staging was performed in patients with the metastatic findings. In 42/234 (17.9%) patients hypermetabolic extra-axillary regional lymph nodes and in 65/234 patients (27.7%) distant metastatic involvement were detected with PET/CT. Modification in the staging was applied in 82/234 (35%) patients. Patient management was changed in 69/234 (29.4%) cases. The percentage of patients with upstaging, according to each stage, was as follows: IIA: 18.6%, IIB: 30%, IIIA: 46.3%, IIIB: 68.8%, and IIIC: 20.8%. In 43/43 patients,99mTc-methylene diphosphonate (MDP) bone scan did not show additional bone metastasis. In 5/32 patients, metastatic involvement was detected with sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), but preoperative PET/CT scan did not reveal hypermetabolic lymph nodes. Although our study was limited by the referral bias and lack of homogeneity in the referral group, PET/CT still significantly contributed to the accurate staging and management of our breast cancer patients, starting from the stage IIA. © 2018 ABMSFBIH

Prognostic factors affecting ipsilateral tumor recurrence and distant metastasis after breast-conserving surgery

10th European Breast Cancer Conference (EBCC) -- MAR 09-11, 2016 -- Amsterdam, NETHERLANDSWOS: 00037177950031

Problematic aspects of sentinel lymph node biopsy and its relation to previous excisional biopsy in breast cancer

PubMed ID: 20139816Purpose: The aim of the study is to review problematic aspects of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and to evaluate the influence of a previous excisional biopsy on these problemsMaterials and Methods: A total of 345 patients were evaluated retrospectively, 156 of them had a previous biopsyTc-99m tin colloid was injected the day before surgery at 4 quadrants around the areola intradermallyProblems complicating SLNB are reviewed in 3 topics: visualization or gamma probe detection problems, dilated lymphatic channels, and misleading activity accumulationResults: SLN detection rate and mean sentinel lymph node numbers were as follows in patients with and without biopsy, respectively: 95.5% versus 99.4% and 1.71 ± 0.97 versus 1.70 ± 0.92Problems complicating the procedure occurred in 20 patients (5.8%)Among these 20 patients, 15 had a prior excisional biopsy, and incisions were located in the upper, outer and periareolar zonesVisualization or gamma probe detection problems occurred in 8 patientsExcept for one with faint uptake in a sentinel node, all had a prior biopsyLymphatic channel dilatation complicated the procedure in 7 patientsOf these 7 patients, 4 had a previous biopsyMisleading activity accumulations compromised SLNB in 5 patients, 4 of whom had a prior biopsyCONCLUSIO