The Blessed and the Damned: Peacemakers, Warlords, and Post Civil War Democracy

This thesis seeks to explain how democracies emerge out of the ashes of civil wars. This paper envisions transitions to democracy after a civil war largely as a function of the peace process. Democracy is thought of as a medium through which solutions to the problems and issues over which the civil war was fought can be solved without violence. Transitions to democracy are more likely if there is a large bargaining space and the problems of credible commitments to democratization can be solved. Democratization is more likely if four conditions exist in a state after the civil war: a negotiated settlement, credible commitments via international enforcement, demobilization, and a cooperative international environment. The hypotheses derived are tested through an event history analysis for two different standards of democracy. The results suggest that factors indicative of all four theoretical concepts contribute to the likelihood of democratization after a civil war

Disease and Dissent: Epidemics as a Catalyst for Social Unrest

We identify a set of potential theoretical mechanisms that link the outbreak and spread of communicable diseases to temporal and spatial patterns of social unrest. Despite the proliferation of research since 2020 analyzing the social impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, we examine the broader relationship between less severe epidemic outbreaks and their social consequences. Epidemics, as well as the policies that governments implement to tackle them, often generate acute grievances among the public and create new opportunities for collective dissent, the combination of which promotes unrest. Nonetheless, perceived opportunities for unrest are influenced by the scale and scope of the disease outbreak, and particularly lethal disease outbreaks may therefore offset the incentives for collective mobilization. We examine these relationships using sub-national data on communicable disease outbreaks and geo-located social unrest events data in 60 African and Latin American countries from 1990 to 2017 and find support for our argument. However, we observe a curvilinear relationships between the severity of the epidemic and the incidence of unrest

Refugees, Economic Capacity, and Host State Repression

Does hosting refugees affect state repression? While there have been numerous studies that examine the link between refugees and the spread of civil and international conflict, an examination of the systematic links between refugees and repression is lacking. We contend that researchers are missing a crucial link, as the dissent-repression nexus is crucial to understanding the development of armed conflict. Drawing upon logics of the relationship between refugees and the spread of conflict as well as economic capacity, we argue that increased numbers of refugees lead to increased repression. We contend that willingness to increase repression when hosting refugees is in part conditional on a host state’s economic capacity. We argue that, on the whole, the greater the population of refugees in a host state, repression becomes more likely. That said, we argue that increased economic capacity will moderate this relationship. We find empirical support for both predictions

A Conditional Defense of the Dyadic Approach

We contend that the dyadic approach should be employed as a theoretically informed choice. All choices of units in modeling are simplifying. Current criticisms do not render dyadic approaches useless forms of simplification. Indeed, depending on the question and theory, dyadic approaches may be the most appropriate simplification of reality for scholars of international studies. The basic structure of the dyad, a two actor interaction, remains a useful simplification for multiple key questions in conflict research. As such, we offer a conditional defense of the dyadic approach in light of three elements: (i) the choice of level of analysis, (ii) the assumption of independence of cases, and (iii) the benefits accrued by past dyadic research

Contiguous States, Stable Borders and the Peace between Democracies

Abstract Park and Colaresi find that border stability does not apply to non-contiguous states. This just confirms, again, an argument I have been making in numerous publications since my original "Bordering on Peace" article. Nevertheless, I use this response to present a replication of my original argument, as it applies to contiguous states, and I find strong support for the contention that the democratic peace can better be understood as a stable border peace. I also discuss several different replications of the original argument using different proxies for stable borders. Each confirms that joint democracy is not a statistically significant predictor of conflict once stable borders are also included in the model. In sum, arguments from the territorial peace have been confirmed in multiple analyses, with multiple datasets, using multiple levels of analysis, and this renders Park and Colaresi's attack on the original "Bordering on Peace" a non sequitur in the debate over stable borders as an explanation of democracy and peace

External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian Abuse: A Principal-Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities.”

the editors and anonymous reviewers at International Organization for comments on previous drafts

Pervasive alteration of tree communities in undisturbed Amazonian forests.

Amazonian rainforests are some of the most species-rich tree communities on earth. Here we show that, over the past two decades, forests in a central Amazonian landscape have experienced highly nonrandom changes in dynamics and composition. Our analyses are based on a network of 18 permanent plots unaffected by any detectable disturbance. Within these plots, rates of tree mortality, recruitment and growth have increased over time. Of 115 relatively abundant tree genera, 27 changed significantly in population density or basal area—a value nearly 14 times greater than that expected by chance. An independent, eight-year study in nearby forests corroborates these shifts in composition. Contrary to recent predictions, we observed no increase in pioneer trees. However, genera of faster-growing trees, including many canopy and emergent species, are increasing in dominance or density, whereas genera of slower-growing trees, including many subcanopy species, are declining. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations6 may explain these changes, although the effects of this and other large-scale environmental alterations remain uncertain. These compositional changes could have important impacts on the carbon storage, dynamics and biota of Amazonian forests.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/83306/1/Laurance2004.pd