Climate change could threaten blood supply by altering the distribution of vector-borne disease: An Australian case-study

<b>Background</b>\ud \ud Climate change is expected to promote more intense and prolonged outbreaks of vector-borne disease, and alter the geographic boundaries of transmission. This has implications for the safety and supply of fresh blood products around the world. In Australia, a recent outbreak of dengue fever caused a prolonged regional shortage in the supply of fresh blood products.\ud \ud <b>Objective</b>\ud \ud To highlight the potential for climate change to affect the safety and supply of blood globally through its impact on vector-borne disease, using the example of dengue in Australia as a case-study.\ud \ud <b>Design</b>\ud \ud We modelled geographic regions in Australia suitable for dengue transmission over the coming century under four climate change scenarios, estimated changes to the population at risk and effect on blood supply.\ud \ud <b>Results</b>\ud \ud Geographic regions with climates that are favourable to dengue transmission could expand to include large population centres in a number of currently dengue-free regions in Australia and reduce blood supply across several states.\ud \ud <b>Conclusion</b>\ud \ud Unless there is strong intergovernmental action on greenhouse gas reduction, there could be an eight-fold increase in the number of people living in dengue prone regions in Australia by the end of the century. Similar impacts will be experienced elsewhere and for other vector-borne diseases, with regions currently on the margins of transmission zones most affected. Globally, climate change is likely to compound existing problems of blood safety and supply in already endemic areas and cause future shortages in fresh blood products through its impact on transmission of vector-borne disease

æORIGINAL ARTICLE

Climate change could threaten blood supply by altering the distribution of vector-borne disease: an Australian case-stud

Garnaut Climate Change Review: The Impacts of Climate Change on Three Health Outcomes: Temperature-Related Mortality and Hospitalisations, Salmonellosis and Other Bacterial Gastroenteritis, and Population at Risk From Dengue

Climate change will affect the health of Australians over this century in many ways. Some impacts will become evident before others. Some will occur via quite direct pathways (e.g. heatwaves and death); others will occur via indirect pathways entailing disturbances of natural ecological systems (e.g. mosquito population range and activity) or disruption to livelihoods and communities (e.g. mental health consequences of prolonged droughts and regional drying trends). Most health impacts will occur at different levels among regions and population sub-groups, reflecting the influence of environment, socioeconomic circumstances, infrastructural and institutional resources, and local preventive (adaptive) strategies on the patterns of disease. The likely health impacts are many and varied. The main health risks in Australia from climate change include: health impacts of weather disasters (floods, storms, cyclones, bushfires, etc.); health impacts of temperature extremes, including heatwaves; mosquito-borne infectious diseases (e.g. dengue fever, Ross River virus disease); food-borne infectious diseases (including those due to Salmonella, Campylobacter and many other microbes); water-borne infectious diseases, and other health risks from poor water quality; diminished food availability: yields, costs/affordability, nutritional consequences; increases in urban air pollution (e.g. ozone), and the interaction of this environmental health hazard with meteorological conditions; changes in aeroallergens (spores, pollens), potentially exacerbating asthma and other allergic respiratory diseases; mental health consequences of social, economic and demographic dislocations (e.g. in parts of rural Australia, and via disruptions to traditional ways of living in remote Indigenous communities) At this stage of research and understanding, and in context of available time and resources, it is only possible to include a minority of those anticipated health impacts in this quantitative modelling exercise