Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households

Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households’ expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households’ stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

Chapter scientists in the IPCC AR5-experience and lessons learned

IPCC Assessment Reports provide timely and accurate information on anthropogenic climate change to policy makers and the public. The reports are written by hundreds of scientists in a voluntary, collaborative effort. Growing amounts of literature and complex procedural and administrative requirements, however, make this effort a substantial management challenge next to a scientific one. During the 5th Assessment Cycle, IPCC Working Groups II and III initiated a program that recruited volunteer scientific assistants who provided technical and logistical support to author teams. In this paper we describe and analyze strengths and weaknesses of this ‘Chapter Scientist program’, based on an extensive survey among Chapter Scientists (CS) and interviews with other stakeholders. We conclude that the program was a useful innovation that that enabled authors to focus more on their core scientific tasks and that contributed to improving the quality of the assessment. We highly recommend similar programs for future scientific assessments. Key criteria for success that we identified are (a) involvement of early-career scientists as CS, (b) close integration of CS in the assessment process, (c) recruitment of CS through an open call to achieve transparency, and (d) provision of funds for such a program to support travel costs and compensation of CS

Phylogenetic diversity and nature conservation: where are we?

To date, there is little evidence that phylogenetic diversity has contributed to nature conservation. Here, we discuss the scientific justification of using phylogenetic diversity in conservation and the reasons for its neglect. We show that, apart from valuing the rarity and richness aspect, commonly quoted justifications based on the usage of phylogenetic diversity as a proxy for functional diversity or evolutionary potential are still based on uncertainties. We discuss how a missing guideline through the variety of phylogenetic diversity metrics and their relevance for conservation might be responsible for the hesitation to include phylogenetic diversity in conservation practice. We outline research routes that can help to ease uncertainties and bridge gaps between research and conservation with respect to phylogenetic diversity. A promising but yet ambiguous additional biodiversity component for conservation More than two decades ago, Richard Vane-Wright et al. However, despite the increasing number of studies, the scientific proof of the added value of phylogenetic diversity for nature conservation remains weak. We believe that this is one of the main reasons why phylogenetic diversity is largely neglected in conservation practice In addition to the more general concept of conserving all components of biodiversity because of their intrinsic values, we identified four main conservation approaches that are commonly proposed as central justifications for the conservation of phylogenetic diversity: (i) the rarity aspect; (ii) the richness aspect; (iii) phylogenetic diversity as a proxy for functional diversity; and (iv) phylogenetic diversity as a proxy for evolutionary potential. Along these lines, we emphasize that a sound conceptual justification for the added value of phylogenetic diversity is often missing. We finally highlight desirable research avenues to increase our knowledge of the role of phylogenetic diversity and of how it could potentially improve conservation in the future. Phylogenetic diversity as an intrinsic biodiversity component One general agreement is to conserve all components of biodiversit

Monitoring Klimawandel und Biodiversität - Grundlagen

Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Biodiversität wird wahrscheinlich zunehmen. Das zeigen Modellierungen der zukünftigen Verbreitungsgebiete von klimasensitiven Arten und Biotoptypen. In der Broschüre werden die Grundlagen eines Monitoringkonzeptes zur Erfassung und Auswertung der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die natürliche biologische Vielfalt in Sachsen vorgestellt. Sie umfassen u. a. die Ziele und Rechtsgrundlagen eines solchen Monitorings, diesbezügliche Aktivitäten des Bundes und ausgewählter Bundesländer sowie den Kenntnisstand zu Wirkungen des Klimawandels auf 13 Artengruppen und auf Biotoptypen. 272 klimasensitive Arten und 32 entsprechende FFH-Lebensraumtypen (LRT) wurden als besonders monitoringrelevant ausgewählt und deren Verbreitung in Sachsen untersucht. Für diese Arten und LRT, die sowohl wahrscheinliche »Gewinner« als auch »Verlierer« des Klimawandels umfassen, werden die geeigneten Monitoringmethoden beschrieben

sMon - Trend analysis of German biodiversity data

Most biodiversity data are collected by volunteers organised in natural history societies or citizen science projects, often closely aligned with (sub )national agencies and local authorities. Data may be heterogeneous in space, time and quality. Here, we present first results of trend analyses of joint work with German natural history societies and state and national conservation agencies through the sMon synthesis project within iDiv. We combine and harmonize exemplary datasets of different taxa and habitats to evaluate the potentials and limits for analysing changes in the state of biodiversity in Germany. We show trend analyses of occupancy frequency data for 60 dragonfly, 42 grasshopper species and amphibia across 3 federal states 1980-2015, using Bayesian hierarchical trend analyses that build on occupancy detection models. Based on these insights and evaluation of citizen science programmes globally, we derive principles for good practice citizen science project design, data collection and archiving and explore methodologies that can deal with fragmented data of different spatio-temporal resolution and quality. This includes harnessing the potentials offered by modern technology. Combined with experiences of joint working of volunteer experts, agencies and academic scientists, this informs perspectives for future biodiversity monitoring programmes in Germany

Widespread decline in Central European plant diversity across six decades

Abstract Based on plant occurrence data covering all parts of Germany, we investigated changes in the distribution of 2136 plant species between 1960 and 2017. We analyzed 29 million occurrence records over an area of ~350,000 km 2 on a 5 × 5 km grid using temporal and spatiotemporal models and accounting for sampling bias. Since the 1960s, more than 70% of investigated plant species showed declines in nationwide occurrence. Archaeophytes (species introduced before 1492) most strongly declined but also native plant species experienced severe declines. In contrast, neophytes (species introduced after 1492) increased in their nationwide occurrence but not homogeneously throughout the country. Our analysis suggests that the strongest declines in native species already happened in the 1960s–1980s, a time frame in which often few data exist. Increases in neophytic species were strongest in the 1990s and 2010s. Overall, the increase in neophytes did not compensate for the loss of other species, resulting in a decrease in mean grid cell species richness of −1.9% per decade. The decline in plant biodiversity is a widespread phenomenon occurring in different habitats and geographic regions. It is likely that this decline has major repercussions on ecosystem functioning and overall biodiversity, potentially with cascading effects across trophic levels. The approach used in this study is transferable to other large‐scale trend analyses using heterogeneous occurrence data

Monitoring Klimawandel und Biodiversität - Konzeption

Die im Heft 24 der Schriftenreihe präsentierten Grundlagen werden im vorliegenden Heft 25 zu einer Konzeption vervollständigt. Teilbereiche der folgenden bestehenden Monitoringprogramme sind für eine Einbeziehung in das konzipierte Monitoring Klimawandel und Biodiversität besonders geeignet: FFH-, SPA-, Tagfalter-, Brutvogel- und Wasserrahmenrichtlinien-Monitoring sowie Forstliches Umweltmonitoring. Es werden acht Module vorgestellt, welche bestehende Monitoringprogramme für ein umfassendes Klimawandel-Biodiversitätsmonitoring ergänzen bzw. bisher nicht untersuchte Aspekte abdecken können. Für die Auswertung der Daten wurden zwei komplexe Kernindikatoren entwickelt und anhand realer Datensets getestet, der Community Temperature Index (CTI) und der Areal Index (AI). Beide zeigen für die Artengruppen der Tagfalter und Libellen innerhalb Sachsens einen Anstieg, der unterstreicht, dass die Erhöhung der Jahresmitteltemperaturen in den letzten Jahrzehnten bereits zu Veränderungen in diesen Artengemeinschaften geführt hat

Climatic stability and geological history shape global centers of neo- and paleoendemism in seed plants

Assessing the distribution of geographically restricted and evolutionarily unique species and their underlying drivers is key to understanding biogeographical processes and critical for global conservation prioritization. Here, we quantified the geographic distribution and drivers of phylogenetic endemism for ~320,000 seed plants worldwide and identified centers and drivers of evolutionarily young (neoendemism) and evolutionarily old endemism (paleoendemism). Tropical and subtropical islands as well as tropical mountain regions displayed the world’s highest phylogenetic endemism. Most tropical rainforest regions emerged as centers of paleoendemism, while most Mediterranean-climate regions showed high neoendemism. Centers where high neo- and paleoendemism coincide emerged on some oceanic and continental fragment islands, in Mediterranean-climate regions and parts of the Irano-Turanian floristic region. Global variation in phylogenetic endemism was well explained by a combination of past and present environmental factors (79.8 to 87.7% of variance explained) and most strongly related to environmental heterogeneity. Also, warm and wet climates, geographic isolation, and long-term climatic stability emerged as key drivers of phylogenetic endemism. Neo- and paleoendemism were jointly explained by climatic and geological history. Long-term climatic stability promoted the persistence of paleoendemics, while the isolation of oceanic islands and their unique geological histories promoted neoendemism. Mountainous regions promoted both neo- and paleoendemism, reflecting both diversification and persistence over time. Our study provides insights into the evolutionary underpinnings of biogeographical patterns in seed plants and identifies the areas on Earth with the highest evolutionary and biogeographical uniqueness—key information for setting global conservation priorities

Environmental and socioeconomic correlates of extinction risk in endemic species

Aim Our current understanding of the causes of global extinction risk is mostly informed by the expert knowledge-based “threats classification scheme” of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Studies based on this dataset came to different conclusions about the relative importance of threats to species, depending on which taxonomic groups and levels of extinction risk were considered, and which version of the database was used. A key reason may lie in data limitations as causes of threat are well known for charismatic and well-studied species, but not for the majority of species assessed. Here, we aim to fill current knowledge gaps about the importance of drivers of global extinction risks by focusing on endemic species. Location Global. Methods We examined country-level variation in the proportion of globally threatened and extinct endemic species (Index of Threat, IoT) with a range of spatially explicit information about anthropogenic pressures, mitigation measures and data limitations. Results IoT coincided with several anthropogenic pressures, with substantial differences among kingdoms, life-forms, levels of extinction risk and geographic locations. IoT of plants, particularly tropical woody plants of moderate extinction risk, was higher in countries with higher GDP and more invasive species. Furthermore, IoT of animals, particularly tropical mammals and invertebrates of moderate extinction risk, was higher in countries with higher GDP and smaller roadless areas. Main conclusions The extinction crisis for endemic species is associated with a complex network of potential drivers that need to be considered in concert in conservation policy and practice. Although our results require careful interpretation and remain sensitive to data limitations, we encourage similar studies at smaller scales to identify potential drivers of extinction risk at a higher resolution, particularly in regions where species assessments have been conducted consistently or on organisms with a uniform response time to pressures