Effect of Variable Selection Strategy on the Performance of Prognostic Models When Using Multiple Imputation

BACKGROUND: Variable selection is an important issue when developing prognostic models. Missing data occur frequently in clinical research. Multiple imputation is increasingly used to address the presence of missing data in clinical research. The effect of different variable selection strategies with multiply imputed data on the external performance of derived prognostic models has not been well examined. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used backward variable selection with 9 different ways to handle multiply imputed data in a derivation sample to develop logistic regression models for predicting death within 1 year of hospitalization with an acute myocardial infarction. We assessed the prognostic accuracy of each derived model in a temporally distinct validation sample. The derivation and validation samples consisted of 11524 patients hospitalized between 1999 and 2001 and 7889 patients hospitalized between 2004 and 2005, respectively. We considered 41 candidate predictor variables. Missing data occurred frequently, with only 13% of patients in the derivation sample and 31% of patients in the validation sample having complete data. Regardless of the significance level for variable selection, the prognostic model developed using only the complete cases in the derivation sample had substantially worse performance in the validation sample than did the models for which variables were selected using the multiply imputed versions of the derivation sample. The other 8 approaches to handling multiply imputed data resulted in prognostic models with performance similar to one another. CONCLUSIONS: Ignoring missing data and using only subjects with complete data can result in the derivation of prognostic models with poor performance. Multiple imputation should be used to account for missing data when developing prognostic models

Evidence and modeling of turbulence bifurcation in L-mode confinement transitions on Alcator C-Mod

© 2020 Author(s). Analysis and modeling of rotation reversal hysteresis experiments show that a single turbulent bifurcation is responsible for the Linear to Saturated Ohmic Confinement (LOC/SOC) transition and concomitant intrinsic rotation reversal on Alcator C-Mod. Plasmas on either side of the reversal exhibit different toroidal rotation profiles and therefore different turbulence characteristics despite the profiles of density and temperature, which are indistinguishable within measurement uncertainty. Elements of this bifurcation are also shown to persist for auxiliary heated L-modes. The deactivation of subdominant (in the linear growth rate and contribution to heat transport) ion temperature gradient and trapped electron mode instabilities is identified as the only possible change in turbulence within a reduced quasilinear transport model across the reversal, which is consistent with the measured profiles and inferred heat and particle fluxes. Experimental constraints on a possible change from strong to weak turbulence, outside the description of the quasilinear model, are also discussed. These results indicate an explanation for the LOC/SOC transition that provides a mechanism for the hysteresis through the dynamics of subdominant modes and changes in their relative populations and does not involve a change in the most linearly unstable ion-scale drift-wave instability

A new CYP21A1P/CYP21A2 chimeric gene identified in an Italian woman suffering from classical congenital adrenal hyperplasia form

Background: More than 90% of Congenital Adrenal Hyperplasia (CAH) cases are associated with mutations in the 21-hydroxylase gene (CYP21A2) in the HLA class III area on the short arm of chromosome 6p21.3. In this region, a 30 kb deletion produces a non functional chimeric gene with its 5′ and 3′ ends corresponding to CYP21A1P pseudogene and CYP21A2, respectively. To date, five different CYP21A1P/CYP21A2 chimeric genes have been found and characterized in recent studies. In this paper, we describe a new CYP21A1P/CYP21A2 chimera (CH-6) found in an Italian CAH patient. Methods Southern blot analysis and CYP21A2 sequencing were performed on the patient. In addition, in order to isolate the new CH-6 chimeric gene, two different strategies were used. Results: The CYP21A2 sequencing analysis showed that the patient was homozygote for the g.655C/A<G mutation and heterozygote for the p.P30L missense mutation. In addition, the promoter sequence revealed the presence, in heterozygosis, of 13 SNPs generally produced by microconversion events between gene and pseudogene. Southern blot analysis showed that the woman was heterozygote for the classic 30-kb deletion producing a new CYP21A1P/CYP21A2 chimeric gene (CH-6). The hybrid junction site was located between the end of intron 2 pseudogene, after the g.656C/A<G mutation, and the beginning of exon 3, before the 8 bp deletion. Consequently, CH-6 carries three mutations: the weak pseudogene promoter region, the p.P30L and the g.655C/A<G splice mutation. Conclusion: We describe a new CYP21A1P/CYP21A2 chimera (CH-6), associated with the HLA-B15, DR13 haplotype, in a young Italian CAH patient. © 2009 Concolino et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Interleukin-1ß mRNA expression in ischemic rat cortex

Background and Pur pose: Interleukin-1ß is a proinftammatory cytokine produced by blood-borne and resident brain inftammatory cells. The present study was conducted to determine if interleukin-1ß mRNA was produced in the brain of rats subjected to permanent focal ischemia. Methods: Rat interleukin-1ß cDNA, synthesized from stimulated rat peritoneal macrophage RNA by reverse transcription and polymerase chain reaction and c10ned in plasmid Bluescript KS+, was used to evaluate the expression of interleukin-1ß mRNA in cerebral cortex from spontaneously hypertensive rats and normotensive rats subjected to permanent middle cerebral artery occlusion. Interleukin-1ß mRNA was quantified by Northern blot analysis and compared with rat macrophage RNA standard. To correct for gel loading, blots were also analyzed with cyclophilin cDNA, which encodes an abundant, conserved protein that was unchanged by the experimental conditions. Results: Interleukin-1ß mRNA produced in the ischemic zone was significantly increased from 6 hours to 120 hours, with a maximum of211±24% ofinterleukin-1ß reference standard, ie, 0.2 ng stimulated rat macrophage RNA, mRNA compared with the level in nonischemic cortices (4±2%) at 12 hours after ischemia (P<.OI; n=6). Interleukin-1ß mRNA at 12 hours after ischemia was markedly elevated in hypertensive rats over levels found in two normotensive rat strains. Neurological deficits were also apparent only in the hypertensive rats. Conclusions: Brain interleukin-1ß mRNA is elevated acutely after permanent focal ischemia and especially in hypertensive rats. These data suggest that this potent proinflammatory and procoagulant cytokine might have a role in brain damage following ischemia

Measuring the effect of enhanced cleaning in a UK hospital : a prospective cross-over study

Increasing hospital-acquired infections have generated much attention over the last decade. There is evidence that hygienic cleaning has a role in the control of hospital-acquired infections. This study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of one additional cleaner by using microbiological standards based on aerobic colony counts and the presence of Staphylococcus aureus including meticillin-resistant S. aureus. We introduced an additional cleaner into two matched wards from Monday to Friday, with each ward receiving enhanced cleaning for six months in a cross-over design. Ten hand-touch sites on both wards were screened weekly using standardised methods and patients were monitored for meticillin-resistant S. aureus infection throughout the year-long study. Patient and environmental meticillin-resistant S. aureus isolates were characterised using molecular methods in order to investigate temporal and clonal relationships. Enhanced cleaning was associated with a 32.5% reduction in levels of microbial contamination at handtouch sites when wards received enhanced cleaning (P < 0.0001: 95% CI 20.2%, 42.9%). Near-patient sites (lockers, overbed tables and beds) were more frequently contaminated with meticillin-resistant S. aureus/S. aureus than sites further from the patient (P = 0.065). Genotyping identified indistinguishable strains from both handtouch sites and patients. There was a 26.6% reduction in new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections on the wards receiving extra cleaning, despite higher meticillin-resistant S. aureus patient-days and bed occupancy rates during enhanced cleaning periods (P = 0.032: 95% CI 7.7%, 92.3%). Adjusting for meticillin-resistant S. aureus patient-days and based upon nine new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections seen during routine cleaning, we expected 13 new infections during enhanced cleaning periods rather than the four that actually occurred. Clusters of new meticillin-resistant S. aureus infections were identified 2 to 4 weeks after the cleaner left both wards. Enhanced cleaning saved the hospital £30,000 to £70,000.Introducing one extra cleaner produced a measurable effect on the clinical environment, with apparent benefit to patients regarding meticillin-resistant S. aureus infection. Molecular epidemiological methods supported the possibility that patients acquired meticillin-resistant S. aureus from environmental sources. These findings suggest that additional research is warranted to further clarify the environmental, clinical and economic impact of enhanced hygienic cleaning as a component in the control of hospital-acquired infection

Establishing the precise evolutionary history of a gene improves prediction of disease-causing missense mutations

PURPOSE: Predicting the phenotypic effects of mutations has become an important application in clinical genetic diagnostics. Computational tools evaluate the behavior of the variant over evolutionary time and assume that variations seen during the course of evolution are probably benign in humans. However, current tools do not take into account orthologous/paralogous relationships. Paralogs have dramatically different roles in Mendelian diseases. For example, whereas inactivating mutations in the NPC1 gene cause the neurodegenerative disorder Niemann-Pick C, inactivating mutations in its paralog NPC1L1 are not disease-causing and, moreover, are implicated in protection from coronary heart disease. METHODS: We identified major events in NPC1 evolution and revealed and compared orthologs and paralogs of the human NPC1 gene through phylogenetic and protein sequence analyses. We predicted whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function by reducing the organism’s fitness. RESULTS: Removing the paralogs and distant homologs improved the overall performance of categorizing disease-causing and benign amino acid substitutions. CONCLUSION: The results show that a thorough evolutionary analysis followed by identification of orthologs improves the accuracy in predicting disease-causing missense mutations. We anticipate that this approach will be used as a reference in the interpretation of variants in other genetic diseases as well. Genet Med 18 10, 1029–1036

Phase-slip induced dissipation in an atomic Bose-Hubbard system

Phase slips play a primary role in dissipation across a wide spectrum of bosonic systems, from determining the critical velocity of superfluid helium to generating resistance in thin superconducting wires. This subject has also inspired much technological interest, largely motivated by applications involving nanoscale superconducting circuit elements, e.g., standards based on quantum phase-slip junctions. While phase slips caused by thermal fluctuations at high temperatures are well understood, controversy remains over the role of phase slips in small-scale superconductors. In solids, problems such as uncontrolled noise sources and disorder complicate the study and application of phase slips. Here we show that phase slips can lead to dissipation for a clean and well-characterized Bose-Hubbard (BH) system by experimentally studying transport using ultra-cold atoms trapped in an optical lattice. In contrast to previous work, we explore a low velocity regime described by the 3D BH model which is not affected by instabilities, and we measure the effect of temperature on the dissipation strength. We show that the damping rate of atomic motion-the analogue of electrical resistance in a solid-in the confining parabolic potential fits well to a model that includes finite damping at zero temperature. The low-temperature behaviour is consistent with the theory of quantum tunnelling of phase slips, while at higher temperatures a cross-over consistent with the transition to thermal activation of phase slips is evident. Motion-induced features reminiscent of vortices and vortex rings associated with phase slips are also observed in time-of-flight imaging.Comment: published in Nature 453, 76 (2008

Measuring indirect transmission-reducing effects in tuberculosis vaccine efficacy trials: why and how?

Tuberculosis is the leading bacterial cause of death globally. In 2021, 10·6 million people developed symptomatic tuberculosis and 1·6 million died. Seven promising vaccine candidates that aim to prevent tuberculosis disease in adolescents and adults are currently in late-stage clinical trials. Conventional phase 3 trials provide information on the direct protection conferred against infection or disease in vaccinated individuals, but they tell us little about possible indirect (ie, transmission-reducing) effects that afford protection to unvaccinated individuals. As a result, proposed phase 3 trial designs will not provide key information about the overall effect of introducing a vaccine programme. Information on the potential for indirect effects can be crucial for policy makers deciding whether and how to introduce tuberculosis vaccines into immunisation programmes. We describe the rationale for measuring indirect effects, in addition to direct effects, of tuberculosis vaccine candidates in pivotal trials and lay out several options for incorporating their measurement into phase 3 trial designs

Coordinated optimization of visual cortical maps (I) Symmetry-based analysis

In the primary visual cortex of primates and carnivores, functional architecture can be characterized by maps of various stimulus features such as orientation preference (OP), ocular dominance (OD), and spatial frequency. It is a long-standing question in theoretical neuroscience whether the observed maps should be interpreted as optima of a specific energy functional that summarizes the design principles of cortical functional architecture. A rigorous evaluation of this optimization hypothesis is particularly demanded by recent evidence that the functional architecture of OP columns precisely follows species invariant quantitative laws. Because it would be desirable to infer the form of such an optimization principle from the biological data, the optimization approach to explain cortical functional architecture raises the following questions: i) What are the genuine ground states of candidate energy functionals and how can they be calculated with precision and rigor? ii) How do differences in candidate optimization principles impact on the predicted map structure and conversely what can be learned about an hypothetical underlying optimization principle from observations on map structure? iii) Is there a way to analyze the coordinated organization of cortical maps predicted by optimization principles in general? To answer these questions we developed a general dynamical systems approach to the combined optimization of visual cortical maps of OP and another scalar feature such as OD or spatial frequency preference.Comment: 90 pages, 16 figure

The Antibacterial Activity of Honey Derived from Australian Flora

Chronic wound infections and antibiotic resistance are driving interest in antimicrobial treatments that have generally been considered complementary, including antimicrobially active honey. Australia has unique native flora and produces honey with a wide range of different physicochemical properties. In this study we surveyed 477 honey samples, derived from native and exotic plants from various regions of Australia, for their antibacterial activity using an established screening protocol. A level of activity considered potentially therapeutically useful was found in 274 (57%) of the honey samples, with exceptional activity seen in samples derived from marri (Corymbia calophylla), jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata) and jellybush (Leptospermum polygalifolium). In most cases the antibacterial activity was attributable to hydrogen peroxide produced by the bee-derived enzyme glucose oxidase. Non-hydrogen peroxide activity was detected in 80 (16.8%) samples, and was most consistently seen in honey produced from Leptospermum spp. Testing over time found the hydrogen peroxide-dependent activity in honey decreased, in some cases by 100%, and this activity was more stable at 4°C than at 25°C. In contrast, the non-hydrogen peroxide activity of Leptospermum honey samples increased, and this was greatest in samples stored at 25°C. The stability of non-peroxide activity from other honeys was more variable, suggesting this activity may have a different cause. We conclude that many Australian honeys have clinical potential, and that further studies into the composition and stability of their active constituents are warranted