Educating on democracy in a time of environmental disasters

The recent diffusion of democracy across the globe has led to an increase in the curiosity of scholars, policymakers and the public alike about the main principles and characteristics of democracy. Equally important are concerns over outcomes of democracy, especially responsiveness of democracy to environmental and citizens’ protection in times of disasters. This article aims to answer several questions about the understanding of principles and outcomes of democracy, and the complexity and variability of democracy across countries, which are still unanswered in the literature. Specifically, it adds to the scholarly debates on democracy and environmental disasters in three ways. First, it presents theoretical and empirical debates on definitions and principles of democracy and its progress worldwide. Second, it discusses the effect of democracy on environmental sustainability. Third, it focuses on the pre-eminence of responsiveness of democratic in comparison to non-democratic governments to environmental disasters, and the best pathways to education on democracy in a time of environmental disasters. The article concludes by highlighting the advantage of mechanisms and solutions of democracy in contrast to non-democracy to challenges in times of environmental disasters and to teaching about responses to environmental disasters

Estimating Design Effect and Calculating Sample Size for Respondent-Driven Sampling Studies of Injection Drug Users in the United States

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) has become increasingly popular for sampling hidden populations, including injecting drug users (IDU). However, RDS data are unique and require specialized analysis techniques, many of which remain underdeveloped. RDS sample size estimation requires knowing design effect (DE), which can only be calculated post hoc. Few studies have analyzed RDS DE using real world empirical data. We analyze estimated DE from 43 samples of IDU collected using a standardized protocol. We find the previous recommendation that sample size be at least doubled, consistent with DE = 2, underestimates true DE and recommend researchers use DE = 4 as an alternate estimate when calculating sample size. A formula for calculating sample size for RDS studies among IDU is presented. Researchers faced with limited resources may wish to accept slightly higher standard errors to keep sample size requirements low. Our results highlight dangers of ignoring sampling design in analysis

Implementation of Web-Based Respondent-Driven Sampling among Men who Have Sex with Men in Vietnam

Objective: Lack of representative data about hidden groups, like men who have sex with men (MSM), hinders an evidence-based response to the HIV epidemics. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) was developed to overcome sampling challenges in studies of populations like MSM for which sampling frames are absent. Internet-based RDS (webRDS) can potentially circumvent limitations of the original RDS method. We aimed to implement and evaluate webRDS among a hidden population. Methods and Design: This cross-sectional study took place 18 February to 12 April, 2011 among MSM in Vietnam. Inclusion criteria were men, aged 18 and above, who had ever had sex with another man and were living in Vietnam. Participants were invited by an MSM friend, logged in, and answered a survey. Participants could recruit up to four MSM friends. We evaluated the system by its success in generating sustained recruitment and the degree to which the sample compositions stabilized with increasing sample size. Results: Twenty starting participants generated 676 participants over 24 recruitment waves. Analyses did not show evidence of bias due to ineligible participation. Estimated mean age was 22 year and 82% came from the two large metropolitan areas. 32 out of 63 provinces were represented. The median number of sexual partners during the last six months was two. The sample composition stabilized well for 16 out of 17 variables. Conclusion: Results indicate that webRDS could be implemented at a low cost among Internet-using MSM in Vietnam. WebRDS may be a promising method for sampling of Internet-using MSM and other hidden groups. Key words: Respondent-driven sampling, Online sampling, Men who have sex with men, Vietnam, Sexual risk behavio

Comparison of contact patterns relevant for transmission of respiratory pathogens in Thailand and the Netherlands using respondent-driven sampling

Understanding infection dynamics of respiratory diseases requires the identification and quantification of behavioural, social and environmental factors that permit the transmission of these infections between humans. Little empirical information is available about contact patterns within real-world social networks, let alone on differences in these contact networks between populations that differ considerably on a socio-cultural level. Here we compared contact network data that were collected in the Netherlands and Thailand using a similar online respondent-driven method. By asking participants to recruit contact persons we studied network links relevant for the transmission of respiratory infections. We studied correlations between recruiter and recruited contacts to investigate mixing patterns in the observed social network components. In both countries, mixing patterns were assortative by demographic variables and random by total numbers of contacts. However, in Thailand participants reported overall more contacts which resulted in higher effective contact rates. Our findings provide new insights on numbers of contacts and mixing patterns in two different populations. These data could be used to improve parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies. Although the spread of infections through populations depends on more factors, found similarities suggest that spread may be similar in the Netherlands and Thailand

Web based survey to measuring social interactions, values, attitudes and travel behavior

This paper presents the data collection methodology developed for Minerva research project. The aim of Minerva is to study the influence of values, attitudes and social interactions on travel behavior. For this purpose, a web based survey has been developed, which consists of several questionnaires to collect respondents’ values and attitudes; a two-day activity-travel diary; information about social interactions; and socio-demographic characteristics.To identify the social contacts, it is being used a contact diary methodology together with the activity-travel diary

Estimating the impact of HIV PrEP regimens containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir or daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine among men who have sex with men in the United States: a mathematical modelling study for HPTN 083

Background: The HPTN 083 trial demonstrated superiority of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) containing long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB) to daily oral tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) among men who have sex with men (MSM). We compared the potential population-level impact of TDF/FTC and CAB among MSM in Atlanta, Georgia. Methods: An MSM HIV transmission model was calibrated to Atlanta-specific data on HIV prevalence and PrEP usage (percentage of uninfected MSM on PrEP), assuming only PrEP-indicated MSM used PrEP. CAB effectiveness (efficacy × adherence) of 91% was estimated using data from HPTN 083 and previous TDF/FTC trials. We estimated HIV infections averted over 5/10 years if TDF/FTC use were maintained, or if all TDF/FTC users switched to CAB in January 2022 (vs. no PrEP or continued TDF/FTC use). CAB scenarios with 10%/20% more users were also considered. Progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals (75%/90% fewer HIV infections in 2025/2030 vs. 2017) was estimated. Findings: We predicted TDF/FTC at current usage (∼28%) would avert 36.3% of new HIV infections (95% credible interval 25.6–48.7%) among all Atlanta MSM over 2022–2026 vs. no PrEP. Switching to CAB with similar usage may prevent 44.6% (33.2–56.6%) infections vs. no PrEP and 11.9% (5.2–20.2%) infections vs. continued TDF/FTC. Increasing CAB usage 20% could increase the incremental impact over TDF/FTC to 30.0% over 2022–2026, getting ∼60% towards reaching EHE goals (47%/54% fewer infections in 2025/2030). Reaching the 2030 EHE goal would require 93% CAB usage. Interpretation: If CAB effectiveness were like HPTN 083, CAB could prevent more infections than TDF/FTC at similar usage. Increased CAB usage could contribute substantially towards reaching EHE goals, but the usage required to meet EHE goals is unrealistic

Social Network Characteristics and HIV Vulnerability Among Transgender Persons in San Salvador: Identifying Opportunities for HIV Prevention Strategies

The purpose of this study is to improve understanding of HIV vulnerability and opportunities for HIV prevention within the social networks of male-to-female transgender persons in San Salvador, El Salvador. We compare HIV prevalence and behavioral data from a sample of gay-identified men who have sex with men (MSM) (n = 279), heterosexual or bisexual identified MSM (n = 229) and transgender persons (n = 67) recruited using Respondent Driven Sampling. Transgender persons consistently reported higher rates of HIV risk behavior than the rest of the study population and were significantly more likely to be involved in sex work. While transgender persons reported the highest rates of exposure to HIV educational activities they had the lowest levels of HIV-related knowledge. Transgender respondents’ social networks were homophilous and efficient at recruiting other transgender persons. Findings suggest that transgender social networks could provide an effective and culturally relevant opportunity for HIV prevention efforts in this vulnerable population

An Opinion Dynamics Model for the Diffusion of Innovations

We study the dynamics of the adoption of new products by agents with continuous opinions and discrete actions (CODA). The model is such that the refusal in adopting a new idea or product is increasingly weighted by neighbor agents as evidence against the product. Under these rules, we study the distribution of adoption times and the final proportion of adopters in the population. We compare the cases where initial adopters are clustered to the case where they are randomly scattered around the social network and investigate small world effects on the final proportion of adopters. The model predicts a fat tailed distribution for late adopters which is verified by empirical data.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, revised text, a new section with empirical evidence has been adde

Six challenges in measuring contact networks for use in modelling.

Contact networks are playing an increasingly important role in epidemiology. A contact network represents individuals in a host population as nodes and the interactions among them that may lead to the transmission of infection as edges. New avenues for data collection in recent years have afforded us the opportunity to collect individual- and population-scale information to empirically describe the patterns of contact within host populations. Here, we present some of the current challenges in measuring empirical contact networks. We address fundamental questions such as defining contact; measurement of non-trivial contact properties; practical issues of bounding measurement of contact networks in space, time and scope; exploiting proxy information about contacts; dealing with missing data. Finally, we consider the privacy and ethical issues surrounding the collection of contact network data