Transitions in the cryptocurrency market during the COVID-19 pandemic: A network analysis

In this letter, we identify the transitions of the cryptocurrency market during the pandemic by means of a network analysis. This method allows us to observe that COVID-19 significantly affected cryptocurrencies during a short period of financial panic, from 12 March 2020 to 1 April 2020, giving rise to a remarkable increase of market synchronisation. However, since April 2020, the cryptocurrency market progressively recovered its initial state, since the strong synchronisation, observed as a consequence of COVID-19, continuously disappeared. Therefore, our analysis highlights different market phases, which can be related to some of the phenomena reported in the existing literature

The illusion of the metaverse and meta-economy

This paper provides (i) a review of the existing literature on the metaverse and (ii) an empirical assessment of the current state of the Web3 meta-economy, with the focus on economic governance and metaverse commerce. We have analysed the entire Web3 metaverse niche, i.e. both the 196 available metaverse fungible tokens and all the non-fungible token (NFT) transactions belonging to the metaverse marketplace. Our results showed that economic governance is based on metaverse tokens that cannot be defined as reliable virtual currencies due to their explosive behaviour, negative performance, and higher volatility compared to traditional alternatives. Paradoxically, fiat currencies and stablecoins could be more appropriate candidates for the payment infrastructure. Moreover, we also observed that NFT prices are affected by the cryptocurrency market, which highlights the risk of metaverse commerce. For future research, developers and scholars must assess the different alternatives and infrastructures that can make the metaverse a persistent reality with a proper virtual economy. However, at present, it seems that the hype has run far ahead of reality

An agent-based early warning indicator for financial market instability

Inspired by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch global breath rule, we propose an investor sentiment index based on the collective movement of stock prices in a given market. We show that the time evolution of the sentiment index can be reasonably described by the herding model proposed by Kirman in his seminal paper “Ants, rationality and recruitment” (Kirman in Q J Econ 108:137–156, 1993). The correspondence between the index and the model allowed us to easily estimate its parameters. Based on the model and the empirical evolution of the sentiment index, we propose an early warning indicator able to identify optimistic and pessimistic phases of the market. As a result, investors and policy-makers can set different strategies anticipating financial market instability. Investors can reduce the risk of their portfolio while policy-makers can set more efficient policies to avoid the effects of financial instability on the real economy. The validity of our results is supported by means of a robustness analysis showing the application of the early warning indicator in eight different worldwide stock markets

The new crypto niche: NFTs, play-to-earn, and metaverse tokens

The combination of blockchain technologies and the gaming industry has given rise to metaverses and play-to-earn games, which incorporate their own economy, commerce, and currencies, namely, metaverse and play-to-earn tokens. In this paper, we analysed the performance and dynamics of 174 tokens, the results of which show that this new crypto niche is characterised by a positive performance in the long run and the absence of dependences on the cryptocurrency market, which could attract more gamers, traders, and companies. However, all these groups should be cautious due to the possible onset of a new crypto bubble

FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: the fragility of centralised digital finance

This paper investigates the causes and the consequences of the FTX digital currency exchange's failure in November 2022. Analysing on-chain data, we report that FTX heavily relied on leveraging and misusing its native token, FTT, and we show how this behaviour exacerbated the company's fragile financial situation. To gain further insights into the downfall, we employ state-of-the-art network science instruments to model the evolutionary dependency structures of 199 cryptocurrencies on an hourly basis, and we investigate tick-by-tick public trades at the time of the events. We identify the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem as the pivotal event that triggered a significant decrease in the exchange's liquidity. Results suggest that the crash was actively accelerated by Binance tweets causing a systemic reaction in the cryptocurrency market. Finally, identifying the actors who mostly benefited from the FTX's collapse and highlighting a generalised trend toward centralisation in the crypto space, we emphasise the importance of genuinely decentralised finance for a transparent, future digital economy

FTX's downfall and Binance's consolidation: the fragility of Centralized Digital Finance

This paper investigates the causes of the FTX digital currency exchange's failure in November 2022. We identify the collapse of the Terra-Luna ecosystem as the pivotal event that triggered a significant decrease in the exchange's liquidity. Analysing on-chain data, we report that FTX heavily relied on leveraging and misusing its native token, FTT, and we show how this behaviour exacerbated the company's fragile financial situation. To gain further insights into the downfall, we study evolutionary dependency structures of 199 cryptocurrencies on an hourly basis, and we investigate public trades at the time of the events. Results suggest that the collapse was actively accelerated by Binance tweets causing a systemic reaction in the cryptocurrency market. Finally, identifying the actors who mostly benefited from the FTX's collapse and highlighting a generalised trend toward centralisation in the crypto space, we emphasise the importance of genuinely decentralised finance for a transparent, future digital economy.Comment: 23 pages, 10 figures, 2 table

The Effect of the Launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Cryptocurrency Market: An Economic Efficiency Approach

We analyze the economic efficiency of the cryptocurrency market after the launch of Bitcoin futures by means of the Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist Indexes. Our results show that the introduction of Bitcoin futures did not affect the economic efficiency of the cryptocurrency market. However, we observe that Bitcoin obtained the highest risk-return trade-off due to its liquidity compared to the rest of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, our paper underlines the support of investors on Bitcoin to the detriment of the rest of cryptocurrencies

Empresas granulares y desagregación regional: un análisis del caso español

Following the approach proposed by Gabaix (2011), this paper aims to assess the existence of granularity in the business cycle fluctuations of the following Spanish regions: the Community of Madrid, Catalonia, the Basque Country and the Valencian Community. Granular firms are those that represent a marginal proportion of the total number of firms in an economy, but nevertheless have a significant impact on fluctuations in the GDP growth rate. We find that the Basque Country and the Valencian Community are granular economies. The Community of Madrid and Catalonia, however, do not show granular behaviour. Therefore, our work provides evidence of granular behaviour at the regional level