Regional avian species declines estimated from volunteer-collected long-term data using List Length Analysis

Long-term systematic population monitoring data sets are rare but are essential in identifying changes in species abundance. In contrast, community groups and natural history organizations have collected many species lists. These represent a large, untapped source of information on changes in abundance but are generally considered of little value. The major problem with using species lists to detect population changes is that the amount of effort used to obtain the list is often uncontrolled and usually unknown. It has been suggested that using the number of species on the list, the "list length,'' can be a measure of effort. This paper significantly extends the utility of Franklin's approach using Bayesian logistic regression. We demonstrate the value of List Length Analysis to model changes in species prevalence (i.e., the proportion of lists on which the species occurs) using bird lists collected by a local bird club over 40 years around Brisbane, southeast Queensland, Australia. We estimate the magnitude and certainty of change for 269 bird species and calculate the probabilities that there have been declines and increases of given magnitudes

Active adaptive conservation of threatened species in the face of uncertainty

Adaptive management has a long history in the natural resource management literature, but despite this, few practitioners have developed adaptive strategies to conserve threatened species. Active adaptive management provides a framework for valuing learning by measuring the degree to which it improves long-run management outcomes. The challenge of an active adaptive approach is to find the correct balance between gaining knowledge to improve management in the future and achieving the best short-term outcome based on current knowledge. We develop and analyze a framework for active adaptive management of a threatened species. Our case study concerns a novel facial tumor disease affecting the Australian threatened species Sarcophilus harrisii: the Tasmanian devil. We use stochastic dynamic programming with Bayesian updating to identify the management strategy that maximizes the Tasmanian devil population growth rate, taking into account improvements to management through learning to better understand disease latency and the relative effectiveness of three competing management options. Exactly which management action we choose each year is driven by the credibility of competing hypotheses about disease latency and by the population growth rate predicted by each hypothesis under the competing management actions. We discover that the optimal combination of management actions depends on the number of sites available and the time remaining to implement management. Our approach to active adaptive management provides a framework to identify the optimal amount of effort to invest in learning to achieve long-run conservation objectives

Integrating plant- and animal-based perspectives for more effective restoration of biodiversity

Ecological restoration of modified and degraded landscapes is an important challenge for the 21st century, with potential for major gains in the recovery of biodiversity. However, there is a general lack of agreement between plant- and animal-based approaches to restoration, both in theory and practice. Here, we review these approaches, identify limitations from failing to effectively integrate their different perspectives, and suggest ways to improve outcomes for biodiversity recovery in agricultural landscapes. We highlight the need to strengthen collaboration between plant and animal ecologists, to overcome disciplinary and cultural differences, and to achieve a more unified approach to restoration ecology. Explicit consideration of key ecosystem functions, the need to plan at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the importance of plant–animal interactions can provide a bridge between plant- and animal-based methods. A systematic approach to restoration planning is critical to achieving effective biodiversity outcomes while meeting long-term social and economic needs

Functional trait changes in the floras of 11 cities across the globe in response to urbanization

Urbanization causes major environmental changes globally, which can potentially homogenize biota across cities through the loss and gain of particular types of species. We examine whether urban environments consistently select for plants with particular traits and the implications of such changes on the functional composition of urban floras. We classified plant recorded in 11 cities around the globe as species that have either colonized (arrived and naturalized), persisted or been lost (local extirpation) following urbanization. We analyzed how 10 traits previously linked with plant responses to environmental conditions explained membership of these three groups, by comparing colonisers with persistent and extirpated plants through individual city-level Bayesian models. Then, we used meta-analysis to assess consistency of traits across urban areas. Finally, we explored several possible scenarios of functional change using these results. On average, urban colonizers had heavier seeds, unspecialised nutrient requirements, were taller and were annual species more often, especially when compared to locally extirpated plants. Common trends of functional change in urban plant communities include shifts towards taller and heavier-seeded plants, and an increased prevalence of the short-lived species, and plants without mutualistic nutritional strategies. Our results suggest that plant traits influence the species that succeed in urban environments worldwide. Different species use different ecological strategies to live in urban environments, as suggested by the importance of several traits that may appear as trait constellations. Plant height and seed mass were the only traits associated with both colonizer and extirpated plant status in urban environments. Based on our data, predicting colonization in urban environments may be easier than identifying extirpation-prone plants; albeit some regional variation, colonization seems strongly driven by environmental conditions common to most cities (e.g. altered disturbance regimes), whereas extirpation may depend more on processes that vary across cities.JAC, MAM and PAV were supported by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions. AKH and MJM would like to acknowledge funding from the Baker Foundation and JAC from the ARC (DE120102221)

Determinants of woody encroachment and cover in African savannas

Savanna ecosystems are an integral part of the African landscape and sustain the livelihoods of millions of people. Woody encroachment in savannas is a widespread phenomenon but its causes are widely debated. We review the extensive literature on woody encroachment to help improve understanding of the possible causes and to highlight where and how future scientific efforts to fully understand these causes should be focused. Rainfall is the most important determinant of maximum woody cover across Africa, but fire and herbivory interact to reduce woody cover below the maximum at many locations. We postulate that woody encroachment is most likely driven by CO2 enrichment and propose a two-system conceptual framework, whereby mechanisms of woody encroachment differ depending on whether the savanna is a wet or dry system. In dry savannas, the increased water-use efficiency in plants relaxes precipitation-driven constraints and increases woody growth. In wet savannas, the increase of carbon allocation to tree roots results in faster recovery rates after disturbance and a greater likelihood of reaching sexual maturity. Our proposed framework can be tested using a mixture of experimental and earth observational techniques. At a local level, changes in precipitation, burning regimes or herbivory could be driving woody encroachment, but are unlikely to be the explanation of this continent-wide phenomenon

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency–Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research

Phenotypic plasticity masks range-wide genetic differentiation for vegetative but not reproductive traits in a short-lived plant

Genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity jointly shape intraspecific trait variation, but their roles differ among traits. In short-lived plants, reproductive traits may be more genetically determined due to their impact on fitness, whereas vegetative traits may show higher plasticity to buffer short-term perturbations. Combining a multi-treatment greenhouse experiment with observational field data throughout the range of a widespread short-lived herb, Plantago lanceolata, we (1) disentangled genetic and plastic responses of functional traits to a set of environmental drivers and (2) assessed how genetic differentiation and plasticity shape observational trait–environment relationships. Reproductive traits showed distinct genetic differentiation that largely determined observational patterns, but only when correcting traits for differences in biomass. Vegetative traits showed higher plasticity and opposite genetic and plastic responses, masking the genetic component underlying field-observed trait variation. Our study suggests that genetic differentiation may be inferred from observational data only for the traits most closely related to fitness

Species trait shifts in vegetation and soil seed bank during fen degradation

Fens in Central Europe are characterised by waterlogged organic substrate and low productivity. Human-induced changes due to drainage and mowing lead to changes in plant species composition from natural fen communities to fen meadows and later to over-drained, degraded meadows. Moderate drainage leads to increased vegetation productivity, and severe drainage results in frequent soil disturbances and less plant growth. In the present article, we analyse changes in plant trait combinations in the vegetation and the soil seed bank as well as changes in the seed bank types along gradient of drainage intensity. We hypothesize that an increase in productivity enhances traits related to persistence and that frequent disturbance selects for regeneration traits. We use multivariate statistics to analyse data from three disturbance levels: undisturbed fen, slightly drained fen meadow and severely drained degraded meadow. We found that the abundance of plants regenerating from seeds and accumulating persistent seed banks was increasing with degradation level, while plants reproducing vegetatively were gradually eliminated along the same trajectory. Plants with strong resprouting abilities increased during degradation. We also found that shifts in trait combinations were similar in the aboveground vegetation and in soil seed banks. We found that the density of short-term persistent seeds in the soil is highest in fen meadows and the density of long-term persistent seeds is highest in degraded meadows. The increase in abundance of species with strong regeneration traits at the cost of species with persistence-related traits has negative consequences for the restoration prospects of severely degraded sites