A dynamic spatio-temporal model to investigate the effect of cattle movements on the spread of Bluetongue BTV-8 in Belgium

When Bluetongue Virus Serotype 8 (BTV-8) was first detected in Northern Europe in 2006, several guidelines were immediately put into place with the goal to protect farms and stop the spreading of the disease. This however did not prevent further rapid spread of BTV-8 across Northern Europe. Using information on the 2006 Bluetongue outbreak in cattle farms in Belgium, a spatio-temporal transmission model was formulated. The model quantifies the local transmission of the disease between farms within a municipality, the short-distance transmission between farms across neighbouring municipalities and the transmission as a result of cattle movement. Different municipality-level covariates such as farm density, land composition variables, temperature and precipitation, were assessed as possibly influencing each component of the transmission process. Results showed a significant influence of the different covariates in each model component, particularly the significant effect of temperature and precipitation values in the number of infected farms. The model which allowed us to predict the dynamic spreading of BTV for different movement restriction scenarios, also affirmed the significant impact of cattle movement in the 2006 BTV outbreak pattern. Simulation results further showed the importance of considering the size of restriction zones in the formulation of guidelines for animal infectious diseases

The Belgian Salmonella surveillance programme 2005

The Belgian Salmonella Surveillance Programme on pig farms, organized by the Federal Agency for the Safety of the Food Chain, started in January 2005. The programme is built up in several stages. In the first stage the 10 % farms with the highest seroprevalence (number of positive samples per farm) are identified

Persistence of the protective immunity and kinetics of the isotype specific antibody response against the viral nucleocapsid protein after experimental Schmallenberg virus infection of sheep

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is an Orthobunyavirus that induces abortion, stillbirths and congenital malformations in ruminants. SBV infection induces a long lasting seroconversion under natural conditions. The persistence of the protective immunity and the isotype specific antibody response upon SBV infection of sheep has however not been studied in detail. Five sheep were kept in BSL3 facilities for more than 16 months and subjected to repeated SBV infections. Blood was regularly sampled and organs were collected at euthanasia. The presence of SBV RNA in serum and organs was measured with quantitative real-time PCR. The appearance and persistence of neutralizing and SBV nucleoprotein (N) isotype specific antibodies was determined with virus neutralization tests (VNT) and ELISAs. The primo SBV infection protected ewes against clinical signs, viraemia and virus replication in organs upon challenge infections more than 15 months later. Production of neutralizing SBV specific antibodies was first detected around 6 days post primo-inoculation with VNT and correlated with the appearance of SBV-N specific IgM antibodies. These IgM antibodies remained present for 2 weeks. SBV-N specific IgG antibodies were first detected between 10 and 21 dpi and reached a plateau at 28 dpi. This plateau remained consistently high and no significant decrease in titre was found over a period of more than 1 year. Similar results were found for the neutralising antibody response. In conclusion, the SBV specific IgM response probably eliminates SBV from the blood and the protective immunity induced by SBV infection protects sheep against reinfection for at least 16 months

Distribution of Schmallenberg virus and seroprevalence in Belgian sheep and goats

A serological survey to detect Schmallenberg virus (SBV)-specific antibodies by ELISA was organized in the Belgian sheep population to study the seroprevalence at the end of the epidemic. One thousand eighty-two sheep samples which were collected from 83 herds all over Belgium between November 2011 and April 2012 were tested. The overall within-herd seroprevalence and the intraclass correlation coefficient were estimated at 84.31% (95% CI: 84.19-84.43) and 0.34, respectively. The overall between-herd seroprevalence was 98.03% (95% CI: 97.86-98.18). A spatial cluster analysis identified a cluster of six farms with significantly lower within-herd seroprevalence in the south of Belgium compared with the rest of the population (P = 0.04). It was shown that seroprevalence was associated to flock density and that the latter explained the presence of the spatial cluster. Additionally, 142 goat samples from eight different herds were tested for SBV-specific antibodies. The within-herd seroprevalence in goats was estimated at 40.68% (95% CI: 23.57-60.4%). The results of the current study provided evidence that almost every Belgian sheep herd has been in contact with SBV during 2011 and should be taken into consideration as part of comprehensive SBV surveillance and control strategies

Bovine tuberculosis surveillance alternatives in Belgium

&lt;p&gt;Belgium obtained the bovine tuberculosis (bTB) officially free status in 2003 (EC Decision 2003/467/EC). This study was carried out to evaluate the components of the current bTB surveillance program in Belgium and to determine the sensitivity of this program. Secondly, alternatives to optimize the bTB surveillance in accordance with European legislation (Council Directive 64/432/EEC) were evaluated. Separate scenario trees were designed for each active surveillance component of the bTB surveillance program. Data from 2005 to 2009 regarding cattle population, movement and surveillance were collected to feed the stochastic scenario tree simulation model. A total of 7,403,826 cattle movement history records were obtained for the 2,678,020 cattle from 36,059 cattle herds still active in 2009. The current surveillance program sensitivity as well as the impact of alternative surveillance protocols was simulated in a stochastic model using 10,000 iterations per simulation. The median (50% percentile) of the component sensitivities across 10,000 iterations was 0.83, 0.85, 0.99, 0.99, respectively, for (i) testing the cattle only during the winter screening, (ii) testing only imported cattle, (iii) testing only purchased cattle and (iv) testing only all slaughtered cattle. The sensitivity analysis showed that the most influential input parameter explaining the variability around the output came from the uncertainty distribution around the sensitivity of the diagnostic tests used within the bTB surveillance. Providing all animals are inspected and post mortem inspection is highly sensitive, slaughterhouse surveillance was the most effective surveillance component. If these conditions were not met, the uncertainty around the mean sensitivity of this component was important. Using an antibody ELISA at purchase and an interferon gamma test during winter screening and at import would increase greatly the sensitivity and the confidence level of Belgium&#039;s freedom from bTB infection status.&lt;/p&gt;</p

Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms

In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3–4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3 °C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale